Egypt protests are breaking new ground

[deadpie]

Egypt is not Tunisia. It's much bigger. Eighty million people, compared with 10 million. Geographically, politically, strategically, it's in a different league – the Arab world's natural leader and its most populous nation. But many of the grievances on the street are the same. Tunis and Cairo differ only in size. If Egypt explodes, the explosion will be much bigger, too.

Egyptians have been here before. The so-called Cairo spring of 2005 briefly lifted hopes of peaceful reform and open elections. Those hopes died, like autumn leaves, blown away by a withering sirocco of regressive measures and reimposed emergency laws. Food and price riots in Mahalla el Kubra in 2008 briefly raised the standard of revolt again. They were quickly suppressed.

But Tuesday's large-scale protests were different in significant ways, sending unsettling signals to a regime that has made complacency a way of life. "Day of Rage" demonstrators in Cairo did not merely stand and shout in small groups, as is usual. They did not remain in one place. They joined together – and they marched. And in some cases, the police could not, or would not, stop them.

This took President Hosni Mubarak and his ministers way out of their comfort zone. Interior minister Habib al-Adli had said earlier he held no objection to stationary protests by small groups. But marching en masse, uncontrolled and officially undirected, along a central Cairo boulevard, heading for the regime heartland of Tahrir Square – this was something new and dangerous.

The protests' organisation was different, too – recalling Tunisia, and Iran in 2009. The biggest opposition grouping, the banned Muslim Brotherhood, for so long a useful Islamist idiot manipulated to bolster western support for the secular regime, declined to take part. Egypt's establishment rebel, the former UN nuclear watchdog chief, Mohammad ElBaradei, also steered clear.

Instead an ad hoc coalition of students, unemployed youths, industrial workers, intellectuals, football fans and women, connected by social media such as Twitter and Facebook, instigated a series of fast-moving, rapidly shifting demos across half a dozen or more Egyptian cities. The police could not keep up – and predictably, resorted to violence. Egypt's protests already have their martyrs, killed by police or burned to death by their own hands. But Egypt does not yet have a Neda Agha-Soltan. Pray it never does.

The language and symbolism were different, too. "Enough, enough (kifaya)!" they shouted in 2005, giving a name to the movement for change. Now the message is: "Too much, too far, for too long!"

"Mubarak, Saudi Arabia awaits you," the demonstrators chanted, referring to the refuge of the Tunisian ex-dictator Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. "Out! Out! Revolution until victory," shouted a group of mothers, babes in arms. Across Cairo, Alexandria and beyond, the banners of the Tunisian intifada waved liked semaphore flags, wishfully signalling an end to the ancien regime.

But Egypt is not Tunisia. Egypt is a much more efficient police state, a much harder nut to crack. Its leader is as tough and as canny as an old fox. Its military and ruling elite is in hock to the Americans to the tune of $2bn a year – and the American republic, itself born of revolt, has no love of revolutions. Mubarak, 82, has held power for 30 years. He is his own, and Washington's man. According to WikiLeaks cables, he likely plans to die in office – and then hand over to his son.

There is no revolution in Egypt, yet. But, hypothetically, if Mubarak were to fall, the consequences would be incalculable – for Israel and the peace process, for the ascending power of Iran, for US influence across the Middle East, and for the future rise and spread of militant, anti-western Islam. And not least, for 80 million Egyptians.

"Our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people," Hillary Clinton declared on Tuesday night. They thought that about Ben Ali's Tunisia, too. Clinton's hurried words show how worried they are.

Link (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/25/egypt-protests)

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This thread is connected to the previous one too. Also, this could lead to a revolution in Egypt. Very important news right here.

It bothers me all these places have been protesting and taking action lately, but us in the USA just rather complain without trying to do shit about it. You want to take matters into your own hands? This is how it happens.

[Amnesiac]

It's always nice to see oppressed people overthrow their bad governments. However, that doesn't apply to the U.S., really, the government here isn't as bad as the ones in Africa.

[deadpie]

It's always nice to see oppressed people overthrow their bad governments. However, that doesn't apply to the U.S., really, the government here isn't as bad as the ones in Africa.

Still, we could at least try to do SOMETHING about our shit.

[Amnesiac]

Still, we could at least try to do SOMETHING about our shit.

The only thing the average American will do is flip-flop between voting Republican or Democrat every four years. That's it. Nothing more.

Having an alternative political view in this environment is almost impossible. What do you think we should do, exactly?

[deadpie]

The only thing the average American will do is flip-flop between voting Republican or Democrat every four years. That's it. Nothing more.

Having an alternative political view in this environment is almost impossible. What do you think we should do, exactly?

Let's start breaking shit. That always seems to get the governments attention.

[Amnesiac]

Let's start breaking shit. That always seems to get the governments attention.

And then we'll get V& and deported to Guantanamo Bay.

[deadpie]

And then we'll get V& and deported to Guantanamo Bay.

You can't send a majority of protesters there. Like if we were up in arms to like three thousand people, I don't see them trying to pull that stupid shit off. It would only add onto America's 'idiocracy'.

[Amnesiac]

You can't send a majority of protesters there. Like if we were up in arms to like three thousand people, I don't see them trying to pull that stupid shit off. It would only add onto America's 'idiocracy'.

True, but the problem, as you said, is that nobody's willing to enter into a violent revolution or some shit like that. They're comfortable with their McDonald's, mediocre workdays and right-of-center political views.

[deadpie]

True, but the problem, as you said, is that nobody's willing to enter into a violent revolution or some shit like that. They're comfortable with their McDonald's, mediocre workdays and right-of-center political views.

Well, as I was saying, if that would happen, which it won't. That's the flaw about us Americans. We're lazy and if a problem arrives, we argue for a day, but let that leash grow tighter around our neck while believing America is the land of the free, while at the same time this country is becoming less about freedom every day.

[Amnesiac]

Well, as I was saying, if that would happen, which it won't. That's the flaw about us Americans. We're lazy and if a problem arrives, we argue for a day, but let that leash grow tighter around our neck while believing America is the land of the free, while at the same time this country is becoming less about freedom every day.

I agree, but what do you expect to get done in a country of 300 million divided people?

[Sugaree]

I'm so glad this is happening. Watching the live video from Al Jazeera makes me proud that the Egyptians are finally rising up against their government. It's great to see nations do this, it really is. Not only historic but also important for human rights.

[Kahn]

I don't think people understand what a profound effect this will have on the political demographic of the world, and, to me, it is frightening to see this sudden uproar happening in various nations. Not only are relations in North Korea and South Korea tense, as they always are, but they are just finally beginning to negotiate after the recent North Korean bombings [citation-needed]. Now all of this. Greece is still in protest, Tunisia just overthrew their government, and now this. There will be more to come, people will want to follow Egypt's example, especially oppressed nations in the Middle East and Africa.

The fact that they are doing something about it, though, is what enlightens me. War is art, and when the common people are overthrowing an oppressive regime it just makes it better.

[Sage]

I don't think people understand what a profound effect this will have on the political demographic of the world, and, to me, it is frightening to see this sudden uproar happening in various nations. Not only are relations in North Korea and South Korea tense, as they always are, but they are just finally beginning to negotiate after the recent North Korean bombings [citation-needed]. Now all of this. Greece is still in protest, Tunisia just overthrew their government, and now this. There will be more to come, people will want to follow Egypt's example, especially oppressed nations in the Middle East and Africa.

These are, indeed, interesting times to be alive. Revolutions are always bound to happen again, that's why they're called revolutions.

[Amnesiac]

I don't think people understand what a profound effect this will have on the political demographic of the world, and, to me, it is frightening to see this sudden uproar happening in various nations. Not only are relations in North Korea and South Korea tense, as they always are, but they are just finally beginning to negotiate after the recent North Korean bombings [citation-needed]. Now all of this. Greece is still in protest, Tunisia just overthrew their government, and now this. There will be more to come, people will want to follow Egypt's example, especially oppressed nations in the Middle East and Africa.

The fact that they are doing something about it, though, is what enlightens me. War is art, and when the common people are overthrowing an oppressive regime it just makes it better.

I'd love to think that this is going to spur a series of revolutions internationally, but I doubt it. Dramatic things like this always fail to spur something else, since people are naturally afraid of random occurrences. Take, for example, the North Korean artillery shellings. Nothing's come out of that, even though it was a drastic and unprecedented event.

[Kahn]

I'd love to think that this is going to spur a series of revolutions internationally, but I doubt it. Dramatic things like this always fail to spur something else, since people are naturally afraid of random occurrences. Take, for example, the North Korean artillery shellings. Nothing's come out of that, even though it was a drastic and unprecedented event.

You've got to think, though, this is in a more culturally isolated region of the world. North Korea and South Korea both have China and the United States breathing down their neck. This, this is different. Greece, Tunisia, and now Egypt are all in upheaval. Bangkok was in unrest not too long ago if I'm not mistaken. In my opinion, this will cause a series of events.

Nobody thought the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand would spur the Great War besides a British Foreign Minister. (Then again, Vienna intentionally waited so Frances President wasn't in communication with Tsar Nicholas to deliver the note. They also waited for Kaiser Wilhelm to give them the 'blank check' in order to proceed.)

[Amnesiac]

You've got to think, though, this is in a more culturally isolated region of the world. North Korea and South Korea both have China and the United States breathing down their neck. This, this is different. Greece, Tunisia, and now Egypt are all in upheaval. Bangkok was in unrest not too long ago if I'm not mistaken. In my opinion, this will cause a series of events.

Nobody thought the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand would spur the Great War besides a British Foreign Minister. (Then again, Vienna intentionally waited so Frances President wasn't in communication with Tsar Nicholas to deliver the note. They also waited for Kaiser Wilhelm to give them the 'blank check' in order to proceed.)

Well, you do definitely have a strong point concerning WWI. However, it seems that these event pop up and then die down. I honestly don't expect anything exciting to happen in this world anymore, it's always the status quo. I was in Bangkok a few months ago, order has been completely restored.

Maybe you're right. This could be the start of something bigger. However, I just have my reservations— the world isn't as exciting as I'd like it to be.

[CaptainObvious]

You guys are overreacting, I think.

I don't think people understand what a profound effect this will have on the political demographic of the world, and, to me, it is frightening to see this sudden uproar happening in various nations. Not only are relations in North Korea and South Korea tense, as they always are, but they are just finally beginning to negotiate after the recent North Korean bombings [citation-needed]. Now all of this. Greece is still in protest, Tunisia just overthrew their government, and now this. There will be more to come, people will want to follow Egypt's example, especially oppressed nations in the Middle East and Africa.

The fact that they are doing something about it, though, is what enlightens me. War is art, and when the common people are overthrowing an oppressive regime it just makes it better.

And that's a great example of what I mean. This is like the 2009 protests in Iran, everyone I know was all aflutter over it and waxing poetic about the end of an autocratic regime. End result? Nothing.

Now, I'd say it's probably 40-60 that there is eventual regime change in Egypt over this, so it's not quite as overblown as Iran in 2009. But a reasoned look at history does not suggest the poetic and dramatic interpretation as the most likely.

[Kahn]

**UPDATE**

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Embattled President Hosni Mubarak said early Saturday that he asked the country's government to resign after thousands of angry Egyptians defied a government curfew and faced stinging police tear gas as they marched for change.

"I asked the government to resign today and I will commission a new government to take over tomorrow," Mubarak said in a national address on Saturday shortly after midnight.

As Mubarak spoke, Egyptian tanks rolled into the country's major cities after the nation's police force had been largely faced down by protesters on Friday. Demonstrators burned many police stations in Cairo and Alexandria and overturned and torched police vehicles.

Mubarak faces toughest challenge (http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/27/egypt.mubarak/index.html)

U.S. President Barack Obama spoke with the Egyptian president after Mubarak's address.

"When President Mubarak addressed the Egyptian people tonight, he pledged a better democracy and greater economic opportunity," Obama said from the White House.

"I just spoke to him after his speech, and told him he has a responsibility to give meaning to those words, to take concrete steps and actions that deliver on that promise," Obama said in a televised appearance. "Violence will not address the grievances of the Egyptian people. Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away."

ElBaradei: The man to lead a free Egypt? (http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/27/egypt.elbaradei.protests/index.html)

Mubarak gave no indication that he would step down or leave the country.

Full regularly updated article, here (http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/28/egypt.protests/index.html?hpt=T1)

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I agree Justin. This world has gotten lazy, isolated from its old self. Technology and such is making it a lot easier than, say, one hundred years ago when tensions were high in the Balkans. I don't agree with you that this world isn't exciting, though. Political and military alike, the world has many exciting features. You may have to look into them more, as they are less obvious and much more easily hidden from the common citizen.

At David: Maybe, but if I'm not mistaken Iran is bigger than Egypt. Egypt is also one of the largest Middle Eastern powers, and it would just be a let down were it to turn out like that.

EDIT: Also, three nations have revolted. Two years ago it was just Iran. With more nations doing it, the chances are more likely something more will be done today rather than two years ago, but I can see where you're coming from. What I'm counting on is the 'monkey see monkey do' effect, whereas two years ago I didn't have the same feeling about the Iranian protests that I have about the Egyptian protests.

[Amnesiac]

I agree Justin. This world has gotten lazy, isolated from its old self. Technology and such is making it a lot easier than, say, one hundred years ago when tensions were high in the Balkans. I don't agree with you that this world isn't exciting, though. Political and military alike, the world has many exciting features. You may have to look into them more, as they are less obvious and much more easily hidden from the common citizen.

Interesting update. Gives me more hope, of course— another country casting off the shackles of oppression (damn, that is some sexy imagery) is always good.

You're right, the power of the Internet has helped people rebel against their government, but unfortunately the Internet is also another form of communication that can be censored and shut down. As for the world being exciting... the world fascinates me; how it works and how people interact with it and each other, however, the people that inhabit this world are usually far from interesting. The way they interact over the long term (talking in years, decades) is interesting, yes, but from a short-scale look at things people are pretty damn boring and, at times, extremely stupid.

If I didn't find the world interesting, though, I wouldn't be reading books like Republic and A Brief History of Time.

[Kahn]

Interesting update. Gives me more hope, of course— another country casting off the shackles of oppression (damn, that is some sexy imagery) is always good.

You're right, the power of the Internet has helped people rebel against their government, but unfortunately the Internet is also another form of communication that can be censored and shut down. As for the world being exciting... the world fascinates me; how it works and how people interact with it and each other, however, the people that inhabit this world are usually far from interesting. The way they interact over the long term (talking in years, decades) is interesting, yes, but from a short-scale look at things people are pretty damn boring and, at times, extremely stupid.

If I didn't find the world interesting, though, I wouldn't be reading books like Republic and A Brief History of Time.

Republic is a great read, I just wished I hadn't lost it during the move.

The thing I can't wait for is one day when I'm older, late 60's, I'll be able to look back at the great and saddening things in life, and say "I lived during that." That's what fascinates me about history.

[Amnesiac]

Republic is a great read, I just wished I hadn't lost it during the move.

The thing I can't wait for is one day when I'm older, late 60's, I'll be able to look back at the great and saddening things in life, and say "I lived during that." That's what fascinates me about history.

I'm still stuck in the intro to Republic, since I'm currently reading four or five books simultaneously. :P

But yeah, I can't wait for the day when I can look back on these moments. "When I was your age, there was this great little place called Virtual Teen! Oh, I remember all the great moments we had on there..."