A world Without Oil

[maestro15]

First, I just want to say how much I LOVE the Ramblings OF The wise section! I love discussing ideas and is a great section for thinkers!

Moving on to my point, Let us say that in 35 years, you come home from work on a rainy day with a trench coat (if you're a father) or your husband comes home from work on a rainy day with a trench coat (if you're a stay at home Mother) You turn on the news at 6. And you hear that there is no more Oil for Humanity for another million years. How would humanity change.
How would the world change in:
1 week-
1month-
1 year -
5 years-
10 years-
25 years-
30 years -
45 years-
100 years-
1000 years-
a million years later-

(you dont have to answer all of them/ If you want to make it brief, feel free to)

1 week- The economy would plummit, We turn to oil reserves
1month-oil reserves empty, death becomes very common
1 year -we switch to alternative electricity sources, all airplanes become obsolete, cars also become obsolete unless you have the money to buy one
5 years- Human population would plummet, rich stay rich, middle class get poor/ we are very desperate to find oil
10 years- we srart to have cleaner air/We start to enter another type of dark ages/ unless you have money to keep electricity/ we would do things the way people did it in the 18th century/ Governments all in 1st world nations become more corrupt
25 years- we have new technology for cars, and boats which allows trade
30 years- Alternative energy sources are cheaper because of new technology/ houses start getting small amounts of electricity
45 years- first airplane flight in 45 years uses other sources of fuel, electricity becomes more powerful again/ we start to modernize again as if it was 1832
100 years- communications would be powerful again, every house has a wind turbine and a solar panel/ 6 trans oceanic flights per year (for the rich)/ coal from a hundred years ago that was never used become more expensive than diamonds. so coal is now a woman's best friend
1000 years- Humanity would be like 1932 only with cleaner skies and no factories/ very modern / airplanes are more common/ we start to go back up to 3 billion humans
a million years later- Oil Oil Oil o no!

[Sage]

I'll just say this on the issue of oil: We didn't come out of the stone age because we ran out of stones.

[Iron Man]

Or out of enlightenment, because we never stopped discovering new things.

[deadpie]

America with oil today is like an addict on it's downward spiral. That should explain how I think things aren't going to get any better.

[ZodiacKiller]

It doesn't work like that. You dont just have continually increasing production and then a plummet to nothing. You have continuously increasing production, to a point where half the worlds energy reserves are used. At that point, production must go downward, as oil is harder to find, and only the deeper stuff is there, so it is harder to extract (as you go deeper in oil drilling you use more energy to get the same amount of energy, thus decreasing the gross product). Because population, and thus demand, is expanentially growing, and the gross product will be less, we will have a snowball effect, where we try to drill more faster, and end up drying the reserves at a faster-than-expected rate.

Of course there is much more to this, because as the oil supply declines so will trade routes. There will not be anough oil to support a million-string fleet of transport ships and hundred-thousand strong fleet of transport planes. The trucks that bring you your food from Iowa will decreas (the average serving of food travels 15000 miles to get to you). Because of this, you will no longer be able to go to the store and buy the common items you expect to have on hand.

From a loss in supply from food to fishing rods, poverty will increase [consumerism- an economy based on the people buying goods from companies (we are one)- depends upon continuous growth based on people continuously buying goods]. Where poverty increases crime increases. Because food will not be in markets (or it will become increasingly less common and increasingly more expensive) and people (for the most part) will not be self-sufficient, theft will be the common way of obtaining food. This is only true for those in a city, because a city could be defined as a group of people so large in one area that they cannot both house their people in that area, and produce their neccessary resources in that are- they require importation.

After the majority of the population dies off, or is killed, we will still kind of exist disjointedly as a society, with small pockets of people. There is no way for me to tell if government will survive the end of oil. If they do, then it is likely this process will be delayed slightly by their attempts to get us more oil than we deserve. Ironically, that war effort may expend more oil than it gets us.

[Continuum]

Eventually, cars will run on rocks and planes would run on balloons as oil hikes up to $9000 per barrel.

[Daniel_]

Nothing would change. Nothing at all. Only difference is our cars would run on water vapor and corn starch, and I'm pretty sure we wont run out of corn any time soon, and besides, 35 years from now, i'd bet my money that they would already stop using gas powered equipment, and switch to hybrid stuff.

So to make it short and simple, nothing.

[Amnesiac]

It's not a realistic proposition, saying that one day we'll completely run out of oil for another million years. Humans aren't so stupid that they won't see that coming. We'll be on other fossil fuels and renewable energy by then.

The massive impact low oil reserves would have on the international economy would be devastating. Entire nations would go under. However, it's not like we wouldn't recover by replacing the oil industry with a renewable resources industry.

As for the products manufactured using oil, I'm sure a substitute could be found.

[ZodiacKiller]

I will address each of you seperately:

@Daniel Any renewables:
A. must be able to scale up capacity rapidly to compensate for oil production decline
B. must have a high energy return on energy invested
C. must be transportable, storeable, and enery-dense. Oil carries a large amount of energy per unit of volume compared to alternatives like hydrogen. Additionally, the infastructure to transport and store oil is already in place.
D. It must be renewable, or else it will only postpone the problem and make it worse.

Ethanol and biodeisel are not economic or scaleable. Hydrogen is economic and truthfully, if you look into it, it is merely a method of energy storage rather than a form of energy production. Other solutions provide electricity and not feul. Furthermore, we use 86 billion barrels a day, and all known solutions will only supply us with, at most the equivalent of 2.6 billion barrels a day. Moreover, this does not consider the fact that coal and uranium both have peaks of about 15 years.

@TheDarthEgg
In 1973 America hit its own peak. The world may max production at some date, but America hit its own peak. That is, America produces less oil today than it ever did before 1973 (2/3 of our oil is imported).

Why is this important?

Because it was only in 1983 that the US realized it had hit its peak. That's a decade later. Humans won't forsee this; between 2000 and now there have been hundreds of books published on this subject, but almost nobody is aware of the subject, and the media never touches it.

[Continuum]

It's not a realistic proposition, saying that one day we'll completely run out of oil for another million years. Humans aren't so stupid that they won't see that coming. We'll be on other fossil fuels and renewable energy by then.

The massive impact low oil reserves would have on the international economy would be devastating. Entire nations would go under. However, it's not like we wouldn't recover by replacing the oil industry with a renewable resources industry.

As for the products manufactured using oil, I'm sure a substitute could be found.

A lot of petrol-exporting countries would go under, especially the middle east. By then, Dubai (and the other emirates who are part of UAE) would lose its luster by that time. I might say it may push them to the brink of initiating war as they fight over resources, just like one of the reasons why Japan spearheaded the war over the pacific in WWII.

But who would believe that? :D By then, they already built cars running on stones and planes on balloons. There would be a slight period of transition from oil to renewable resource. Everyone will be hyped to try the new cars at the store, and begin to scrap their old oil-gussling ones. Everyone would breathe the new fresher air, and be grateful about it. I say everyone will be happy without oil. Hopefully. :D

[Rutherford The Brave]

Fat people would get skinny, skinny people would become more atheletic. We'd have cleaner air, cleaner shrimp (AHAHAH BP) and cleaner water.

[Amnesiac]

A lot of petrol-exporting countries would go under, especially the middle east. By then, Dubai (and the other emirates who are part of UAE) would lose its luster by that time. I might say it may push them to the brink of initiating war as they fight over resources, just like one of the reasons why Japan spearheaded the war over the pacific in WWII.

But who would believe that? :D By then, they already built cars running on stones and planes on balloons. There would be a slight period of transition from oil to renewable resource. Everyone will be hyped to try the new cars at the store, and begin to scrap their old oil-gussling ones. Everyone would breathe the new fresher air, and be grateful about it. I say everyone will be happy without oil. Hopefully. :D

Yeah, but that transition period would be a landmark time in human history, and I doubt it would be pretty. The Middle East would lose all its economic importance and become a wasteland full of war and unrest.

Meanwhile, the West would develop new green products and energy sources and continue to lead the world.

[ZodiacKiller]

I am sorry, but you all have no understanding of electricity at all. Rocks do not have any kinetic energy, they only have potential energy, which can hardly be harnessed to the extent that we may go 55 mph down the freeway. Furthermore, ballons have energy, but once again not to the extent, or in a form, that would allow you to acheive jet-speeds.

[Tiberius]

In 50 years time, only third world countries are going to be using oil, coal, etc. All developed nations will have either fully converted to the use of various forms of fusion power or will be switching to it. Fusion power is very much so a reality in this world. We already have a functioning fusion reactor that's being a test model for those to come in the next ten years, and cold fusion is being researched. Both have no adverse effects and both produce ridiculous amounts of energy for what they consume. Bio-fuels, oil, coal, natural gas, and liquid hydrogen are out-dated and old technology.

[Amnesiac]

In 50 years time, only third world countries are going to be using oil, coal, etc. All developed nations will have either fully converted to the use of various forms of fusion power or will be switching to it. Fusion power is very much so a reality in this world. We already have a functioning fusion reactor that's being a test model for those to come in the next ten years, and cold fusion is being researched. Both have no adverse effects and both produce ridiculous amounts of energy for what they consume. Bio-fuels, oil, coal, natural gas, and liquid hydrogen are out-dated and old technology.

From what I've read, scientists say fusion won't be a feasible power source for another hundred years. I doubt that we would be able to develop within a timeframe of 10 or 20 years, the technology it requires is extremely complex.

[ZodiacKiller]

The peak is predicted to occur in the next 15-20 years, so the only way your theory works is if we build 646 nuclear power plants in the next 15 years. This is bad considering we only have 104 at the moment and there is no political will to do this.

Furthurmore, nuclear power cannot be made into feul.

[Errr]

watch the History Channle haha

[Amnesiac]

http://i958.photobucket.com/albums/ae65/TheDarthEgg/Solarsurfacearea.jpg

This is the area that would need to be covered with solar panels to power the world.

It would make for an interesting mass engineering project, but creating an international power grid to carry this energy would be absurd. Also, there's the risk of nations threatening to cut the power supply for gain in international politics.

[myskias]

the world would go crazy and nuclear technology would be misused and wed all be screwed from that.. haha thats my theory.

[ZodiacKiller]

@TheDarthEgg
In order for america alone to be sustainable on Solar, we would have to increase our solar production by a factor of 2000; that's not increase our amount of output by 2000, but multiply our output by 2000.

[Amnesiac]

@TheDarthEgg
In order for america alone to be sustainable on Solar, we would have to increase our solar production by a factor of 2000; that's not increase our amount of output by 2000, but multiply our output by 2000.

Yes, and I know that an incredible amount of construction and money would have to be dumped into it. I just don't think such an international solar grid could be accomplished. But then again, I could be wrong.

[Continuum]

Yeah, but that transition period would be a landmark time in human history, and I doubt it would be pretty. The Middle East would lose all its economic importance and become a wasteland full of war and unrest.

Meanwhile, the West would develop new green products and energy sources and continue to lead the world.

As would everyone would. Europe and America would still be on top, while the rest follows. They would still top as the starters of a new era, an era that mostly resembles what today is, only without oil and fossil fuels.

It's true, the Middle East's distinct place on the world map will soon fade away as oil becomes more and more unnecessary. They begin to panic and start war as they lose most of their trading buddies. They might fall soon after, sad.

Don't get me wrong, the future will be bright, shining and beautiful; with space colonies and clones beating up clowns. It's just that there must be something in the middle for the period to change. Like the Stone age to Iron age.


I am sorry, but you all have no understanding of electricity at all. Rocks do not have any kinetic energy, they only have potential energy, which can hardly be harnessed to the extent that we may go 55 mph down the freeway. Furthermore, ballons have energy, but once again not to the extent, or in a form, that would allow you to acheive jet-speeds.

So I heard. Well, time to move to flints and tree stumps.



Yes, and I know that an incredible amount of construction and money would have to be dumped into it. I just don't think such an international solar grid could be accomplished. But then again, I could be wrong.

It could be, if it was that covering 1/16 of the world with solar panels could be so tiring to do. Using the power within the Earth could also be used to power most of the Pacific ring and wind energy on monsoon-heavy areas.

[Amnesiac]

As would everyone would. Europe and America would still be on top, while the rest follows. They would still top as the starters of a new era, an era that mostly resembles what today is, only without oil and fossil fuels.

It's true, the Middle East's distinct place on the world map will soon fade away as oil becomes more and more unnecessary. They begin to panic and start war as they lose most of their trading buddies. They might fall soon after, sad.

Don't get me wrong, the future will be bright, shining and beautiful; with space colonies and clones beating up clowns. It's just that there must be something in the middle for the period to change. Like the Stone age to Iron age.

Of course. The only thing that keeps the Middle East tied to the developed world is oil, and when that's gone and they realize they aren't economically important anymore, they will go insane. I would fully anticipate a war in the Middle East.

It could be, if it was that covering 1/16 of the world with solar panels could be so tiring to do. Using the power within the Earth could also be used to power most of the Pacific ring and wind energy on monsoon-heavy areas.

Those two are also options, but monsoon-battered areas are usually located in developing countries that haven't been introduced to new green technology yet. It would probably take more time to build windmills in monsoon areas than geothermal power plants in Ring of Fire countries like Japan and New Zealand.

[ZodiacKiller]

Richard Heinberg notes that "meeting only 18 percent of current US energy consumption would require building 200,000 state-of-the-art turbines every single year for the next twenty-seven years, and that wind turbine factories globally are only producing about one-fifth of that number each year."

This makes two points:
(A) Wind is out-of the option, and
(B) When are we going to start making these turbines/geothermal wells/hydroelectric dams/solar panels/ect. We aren't now, and we won't have the will until after we hit the downcurve, at which point we will be in financial collapse (as demand will keep rising and production will fall, which wouldn't be so bad if our economy wasn't dependent on the resource).

[Continuum]

Of course. The only thing that keeps the Middle East tied to the developed world is oil, and when that's gone and they realize they aren't economically important anymore, they will go insane. I would fully anticipate a war in the Middle East.


Gotta love that oil. Keeps them aloof and alive, just like what the dialysis machine does to a failing patient.

Especially that Saudi Arabia is still an absolute monarchy, and most of the people there does not dare to question his opinion, I would say it's expected to have another war in our hands.



Those two are also options, but monsoon-battered areas are usually located in developing countries that haven't been introduced to new green technology yet. It would probably take more time to build windmills in monsoon areas than geothermal power plants in Ring of Fire countries like Japan and New Zealand.

Developed nations would have to collaborate to help developing nations cope up if they want to build a better world. Europe and the Western hemisphere would have to help the launch of better power sources all over the world. They would have to share what they know, or at least fund the efforts of other nations who strive to do what is best. Wind energy is still one of the best renewable source of energy that doesn't give off much residue. Geothermal, however, gives off some of the locked gases within the earth (methane, CO2, H2S and others) but still its a tiny fraction compared to the gases emitted by conventional fossil fuels. The locations required for geothermal plants are quite scarce, since they need to be near a fault in order to extract.


Richard Heinberg notes that "meeting only 18 percent of current US energy consumption would require building 200,000 state-of-the-art turbines every single year for the next twenty-seven years, and that wind turbine factories globally are only producing about one-fifth of that number each year."

This makes two points:
(A) Wind is out-of the option, and
(B) When are we going to start making these turbines/geothermal wells/hydroelectric dams/solar panels/ect. We aren't now, and we won't have the will until after we hit the downcurve, at which point we will be in financial collapse (as demand will keep rising and production will fall, which wouldn't be so bad if our economy wasn't dependent on the resource).

That's why we need to maximize our options as often as possible.

[ZodiacKiller]

The point is that we aren't maximizing are options at all, thus there is no ability to maximize them at all.

[Continuum]

That's why it's time to build for the future and start something productive, not to screw around thinking what to do with all of the materials left in the world.

[ZodiacKiller]

Don't tell me that- tell the world leaders that. Not that they're gonna change anything. We only have a decade or so.

[Break]

Here is your prior notice :P

- ? Prior - Confusion and Disbelief across the nation. Gas prices rise steadily. Groups and organizations pop up across the world encouraging minimal use of private oil. Car sales decline sharply.
-1 month Prior - Certain companies and individuals fight to buy remaining oil. Temporary crime rate increase. Government issues vehicle recycle (scrap-metal) program.

[Continuum]

Don't tell me that- tell the world leaders that. Not that they're gonna change anything. We only have a decade or so.

I won't. Because I'm only among the many people concerned for the world and my voice would not be heard.

[ZodiacKiller]

@Break
Did you read anything? There won't be disbeleif because they won't be told until a decade later. Prices for both public & private sales wont rise until the decline has started, the effects of the disaster won't occur until the disaster occurs.

[ZodiacKiller]

apparently nobody cares