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May 27th, 2015, 11:23 AM
I'll quote some of the stuff from Wikipedia about the book cause I'm bad at writing, sorry.
The Limits to Growth is a book "about the computer simulation of exponential economic and population growth with finite resource supplies". It was first published in 1972. The latest updated version was published in 2004.
"The book used the World3 model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the Earth's and human systems."
"Five variables were examined in the original model. These variables are: world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion. The authors intended to explore the possibility of a sustainable feedback pattern that would be achieved by altering growth trends among the five variables under three scenarios. They noted that their projections for the values of the variables in each scenario were predictions "only in the most limited sense of the word," and were only indications of the system's behavioral tendencies. Two of the scenarios saw "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by the mid to latter part of the 21st century, while a third scenario resulted in a stabilized world."
At first the book received a lot of criticism, but it got recognition when the predicted patterns started to come true.
So here is what all the fuss is about. One of the models calculates this:
http://i.imgur.com/bMY6MvL.jpg
We are spending our finite resources a lot faster than they can re-accumulate. Oil, natural gas, wood, etc.
Also it tries to get a point across that we are long past the point when our globe can self-sustain itself. And we are far past our planet's carrying capacity.
"The carrying capacity of a biological species in an environment is the maximum population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water, and other necessities available in the environment. In population biology, carrying capacity is defined as the environment's maximal load, which is different from the concept of population equilibrium."
http://i.imgur.com/2wljg4t.png
And the population growth is increasing with every year.
The point is: we are running out of finite resources and we don't yet have a good alternative for it. Our population is "too damn high" for our planet's carrying capacity. And because of all these factors we are ought to expect a shortage of food and resources in the near future (around 2050). As well as decline in a population.
The book is about the fact that every system has its limits [to growth] and at its peak it always collapses. We can see the same happening with numerous ancient civilizations - they have all collapsed at the pick of their growth.
__________________
So... What do you guys think about it? Should we expect a global collapse by the mid of 21st century or does this all sound like a load of BS to you?
Should we, as a society, try to prevent it or just let it happen and try to rebuild?
The Limits to Growth is a book "about the computer simulation of exponential economic and population growth with finite resource supplies". It was first published in 1972. The latest updated version was published in 2004.
"The book used the World3 model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the Earth's and human systems."
"Five variables were examined in the original model. These variables are: world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion. The authors intended to explore the possibility of a sustainable feedback pattern that would be achieved by altering growth trends among the five variables under three scenarios. They noted that their projections for the values of the variables in each scenario were predictions "only in the most limited sense of the word," and were only indications of the system's behavioral tendencies. Two of the scenarios saw "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by the mid to latter part of the 21st century, while a third scenario resulted in a stabilized world."
At first the book received a lot of criticism, but it got recognition when the predicted patterns started to come true.
So here is what all the fuss is about. One of the models calculates this:
http://i.imgur.com/bMY6MvL.jpg
We are spending our finite resources a lot faster than they can re-accumulate. Oil, natural gas, wood, etc.
Also it tries to get a point across that we are long past the point when our globe can self-sustain itself. And we are far past our planet's carrying capacity.
"The carrying capacity of a biological species in an environment is the maximum population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water, and other necessities available in the environment. In population biology, carrying capacity is defined as the environment's maximal load, which is different from the concept of population equilibrium."
http://i.imgur.com/2wljg4t.png
And the population growth is increasing with every year.
The point is: we are running out of finite resources and we don't yet have a good alternative for it. Our population is "too damn high" for our planet's carrying capacity. And because of all these factors we are ought to expect a shortage of food and resources in the near future (around 2050). As well as decline in a population.
The book is about the fact that every system has its limits [to growth] and at its peak it always collapses. We can see the same happening with numerous ancient civilizations - they have all collapsed at the pick of their growth.
__________________
So... What do you guys think about it? Should we expect a global collapse by the mid of 21st century or does this all sound like a load of BS to you?
Should we, as a society, try to prevent it or just let it happen and try to rebuild?