The United Kingdom votes via referendum to leave the European Union

[Stronk Serb]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

What has happened?
A referendum - a vote in which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age can take part - was held on Thursday 23 June, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union.
Leave won by 52% to 48%.
The referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting. It was the highest turnout in a UK-wide vote since the 1992 general election.

What was the breakdown across the UK?
England voted strongly for Brexit, by 53.4% to 46.6%, as did Wales, with Leave getting 52.5% of the vote and Remain 47.5%.
Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted Remain and 44.2% Leave.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/britain-brexit-european-union-referendum.html?_r=0

LONDON — Britain has voted to leave the European Union, a historic decision sure to reshape the nation’s place in the world, rattle the Continent and rock political establishments throughout the West.

Not long after the vote tally was completed, Prime Minister David Cameron, who led the campaign to remain in the bloc, appeared in front of 10 Downing Street on Friday morning to announce that he planned to step down by October, saying the country deserved a leader committed to carrying out the will of the people.

The stunning turn of events was accompanied by a plunge in the financial markets, with the value of the British pound and stock prices plummeting.

The margin of victory startled even proponents of a British exit. The “Leave” campaign won by 52 percent to 48 percent. More than 17.4 million people voted in the referendum on Thursday to sever ties with the European Union, and about 16.1 million to remain in the bloc.

“I will do everything I can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months,” Mr. Cameron said. “But I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.”

Despite opinion polls before the referendum that showed either side in a position to win, the outcome stunned much of Britain, Europe and the trans-Atlantic alliance, highlighting the power of anti-elite, populist and nationalist sentiment at a time of economic and cultural dislocation.

“Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom,” Nigel Farage, the leader of the U.K. Independence Party, one of the primary forces behind the push for a referendum on leaving the European Union, told cheering supporters just after 4 a.m.

But it was not clear that the United Kingdom could survive withdrawal from the European Union intact. There was immediate pressure for another referendum on independence from Britain for Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly on Thursday to stay with Europe.
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I can see economic hardships for the UK due to transition to new markets and/or trying to regain lost ones. I think they should have stayed and tried to game the system, but seeing how Cameron got them privileged status, I do not think it is possible. Still, it's a good thing they went for national sovereignty. An independent Scotland could be a possibility.

[Plane And Simple]

England voted strongly for Brexit, by 53.4%

Hahahahahaha what? Oh, Media manipulation, you're lovely.

[rioo]

so UK will lost their slot for next euro championship or still?

[Stronk Serb]

England voted strongly for Brexit, by 53.4%

Hahahahahaha what? Oh, Media manipulation, you're lovely.

Meh, here they overbump the percentages and filter anti-ruling party sentiments. This started during the Democratic Party, but the Progressive Party amped it up several times up.

so UK will lost their slot for next euro championship or still?

Could be, I am not really into the specifics.

[rioo]

I've heard in news that it will affect for young footballers for non UK which is more benefit for premiere league, new talents good price. But now is limited.

[Plane And Simple]

Meh, here they overbump the percentages and filter anti-ruling party sentiments. This started during the Democratic Party, but the Progressive Party amped it up several times up.



Could be, I am not really into the specifics.

Yeah, I don't know why this media thing surprises me anymore

[Leprous]

All I can say is that the UK just dug their own grave.

[Living For Love]

so UK will lost their slot for next euro championship or still?
Wat? Switzerland and Norway aren't part of the European Union, yet they can still participate in the EURO and their clubs in Champions League.

[Leprous]

Also, heard that they are not going to pay the money Norway and Switzerland also pay to the EU to trade with them. Instead the UK will pump that money into their healthcare.

First they leave, now this.

[sqishy]

I come here late to confess that I did have more of a position on this than I said before, but it was for a small number of reasons. I was predicting that the UK would stay in partly because of fear-mongering against a 'brexit' (terrorism/etc), and I also did not predict this massive response all over the news and internet. I felt it justified to exclude myself from here, until now.

- - - - - - - -

So, I was in preference of the UK leaving the EU, for reasons of the UK having greater autonomy out of the EU than in it. I am not in favour of the majority of the arguments regarding mostly immigration problems and nationalism (most being misplaced/excessive to me) - they happened to have the same overarching side on the referendum as I did.

I'm also somewhat suspicious of the EU and where it may be heading.

It is more likely that the brexit and its consequences will be something I won't like in some ways, but experience will show all.

- - - - - - - -

phuckphace (if you are still around)
For one of the few times I agree with you with Tumblr and other social media being excessive and generalistic in its reaction to certain events/viewpoints (if that is your view).

Just because someone is in favour for brexit, does not necessarily mean that they are xenophobic/racist/fascist (whatever reasoning is given for that labelling). There are fundamentally two sides to take, but there are many many more than two arguments to take. Calling the entire general brexit position xenophobic/etc is completely over the top, it would be like calling the entire 'remain' side a massive group of dystopian superstate sympathisers or something (some may well be, but not all).

- - - - - - - -

Leaving that section of social media aside, the political realm is getting interesting in a sort of turbulent and shocked way:

Spain is suddenly in heightened fresh disputes with the UK over governance of Gibraltar, because over 90% of it voted to stay in the EU. The UK is currently rejecting Spain's point of view.

Many govt officials in Scotland see this event as a good opportunity to call a second referendum on seeking independence from the UK, having this event being extra argumentative fuel.

Northern Ireland is also having an analogous situation, but also with a few politicians arguing for a united Ireland.

There are some politicians in most EU countries in general that would like to also have a referendum to leave it. Basically, the brexit is a potentially powerful initiator for a domino effect.

Donald Trump has (as usual) taken advantage of the brexit to blame Obama for the result, but also hail it as the UKers "taking back their country" or whatever. I'm mostly putting Trump here for a little humour (as most would see it), because if the events of the socio-econo-political realm of 2016 were all one big story, Trump/related are a plot line which likes to get into lots of stuff everywhere.

EDIT: Turns out Trump said this to Scotland, which had a majority vote to remain. Not unusual...

- - - - - - - -

I'm confident Vlerchan can give the present and future economic picture of this.

Is it true that EU member states have to fulfill a quota of exporting and importing certain ranges of items from other member states?

- - - - - - - -

Overall, we live in interesting times.

[Flapjack]

yayyy....

[Hollywood]

Congrats?

[Flapjack]

3 brexit promises already ditched. (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/3-brexit-promises-campaigners-wriggled-8271762?ICID=FB_mirror_main)

[Atlantis]

3 brexit promises already ditched. (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/3-brexit-promises-campaigners-wriggled-8271762?ICID=FB_mirror_main)

I saw this on the news this morning - seriously though that big red bus with 'We'll have £350 million a week to spend on the NHS' was one of the things they kept going on about. When Farage said on the news this morning it won't necessarily go to the NHS I wasn't happy.

Anyway another point that I would like to bring up is how the result is unfair (in a way, in my opinion). With 16.4 million people wishing to remain in the EU, surely their opinions should be taken into account as well. I think in the Papal elections they have to have 67% majority or something like that, so that would have shown what most of the nation wanted. I think there's a petition somewhere on the government's website calling for a second referendum which has 185,000 signatures at the moment.

Another point is that the age demographics show that older people tended to vote for Brexit, while younger people voted for Remain, but it's the younger people who will have to live with it, not the younger.

[sqishy]

Another point is that the age demographics show that older people tended to vote for Brexit, while younger people voted for Remain, but it's the younger people who will have to live with it, not the younger.

This brings up the question of whether certain votes could/should have more value than others (a potentially rich debating field).

[Dalcourt]

I think it's kinda sad that this happened cuz I feel that a lot of the people voting for leaving the EU did not really grasp what the EU is about and just made life harder now for the younger generations cuz they voted to leave for all the wrong reasons.

[ValentinClarke]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/britain-brexit-european-union-referendum.html?_r=0


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I can see economic hardships for the UK due to transition to new markets and/or trying to regain lost ones. I think they should have stayed and tried to game the system, but seeing how Cameron got them privileged status, I do not think it is possible. Still, it's a good thing they went for national sovereignty. An independent Scotland could be a possibility.

This infuriates me. I think we as a nation have made the wrong decision.

[Atlantis]

This brings up the question of whether certain votes could/should have more value than others (a potentially rich debating field).

Yes definitely. The younger voters will have to live with this decision (which, the older people basically voted for) for 70, possible 80 + years, whilst the older people will only have to live with it for 10-20 years at the most. When you also take into account that student university towns (ie. Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol, Oxbridge etc.) mainly voted Remain, it shows that the younger population did not want Brexit. In my opinion, the older people have pretty much destroyed student's futures (well in my pro-Remain opinion)

This infuriates me. I think we as a nation have made the wrong decision.
Totally agree with you.

I think it's kinda sad that this happened cuz I feel that a lot of the people voting for leaving the EU did not really grasp what the EU is about and just made life harder now for the younger generations cuz they voted to leave for all the wrong reasons.
I don't think that the Vote Leave campaign made any valid points to be honest. We won't get £350 million a week for the NHS (in fact we will probably have to still pay most of that to Brussels to trade with the single market like Norway), and also (like Norway) we will still have to accept free movement to trade with them, unless the new PM/negotiation team can work something out.

[Stronk Serb]

I think it's kinda sad that this happened cuz I feel that a lot of the people voting for leaving the EU did not really grasp what the EU is about and just made life harder now for the younger generations cuz they voted to leave for all the wrong reasons.

I think this is a result of a streak of wrong choices done by the government dating back a decade or two.

This infuriates me. I think we as a nation have made the wrong decision.

Time will show, prepare for economic hardships for some time and hope all the problems get solved quickly. I think Cameron knew something bad is happening with the EU, that's why he held the referendum. Maybe the pro-EU part of the parliament will block the decision

[Atlantis]

Time will show, prepare for economic hardships for some time and hope all the problems get solved quickly. I think Cameron knew something bad is happening with the EU, that's why he held the referendum. Maybe the pro-EU part of the parliament will block the decision

We don't really know what will happen over the next few years as we 'untangle' our relationship with the EU. Anything could happen really, and with the sudden drop of the value of the pound against the dollar and the euro within one day (to a 31 year low I believe) it doesn't look good for the future. The 17 million people who voted leave won't be happy if the decision is blocked, but yet again the 16 million people who voted remain aren't happy now.

[dxcxdzv]

I think it's kinda sad that this happened cuz I feel that a lot of the people voting for leaving the EU did not really grasp what the EU is about and just made life harder now for the younger generations cuz they voted to leave for all the wrong reasons.
According to some Google Trends statistics "What is the EU?" and "What is Brexit?" have increased by +250% as terms of research, and this... just after the votes closed.

Btw most of the arguments were around the £350 Bn a week, which is a false number actually.

Time will show, prepare for economic hardships for some time and hope all the problems get solved quickly. I think Cameron knew something bad is happening with the EU, that's why he held the referendum. Maybe the pro-EU part of the parliament will block the decision
Cameron prepared it, seriously. I bet there was two texts already prepared at the 10 Downing Street, one for the Leave case and one for the Remain one.
Cameron knows the next months/years aren't gonna be well and I assume he doesn't want to be held responsible for that.
Furthermore as he is pro-EU I don't think he would like to negotiate himself with the EU, too bitter.
Btw he held a referendum due to the populist pressure.

[Vlerchan]

Am I wrong to consider this a populist revolt? The biggest pro-Leave areas were those with considerable levels of unemployment and social degradation, otherwise. It was no proud nation forcefully asserting it's right to sovereignty, but just the cowering masses, hoping that separation will allow them to avoid being lost amongst the changing winds that globalisation has encouraged.

Similar to the Trump campaigns, and despite their pretences, this is the sign of a nation that has lost confidence in itself.

Cameron knows the next months/years aren't gonna be well and I assume he doesn't want to be held responsible for that.
This, BTW.

[dxcxdzv]

Am I wrong to consider this a populist revolt? The biggest pro-Leave areas were those with considerable levels of unemployment and social degradation, otherwise. It was no proud nation forcefully asserting it's right to sovereignty, but just the cowering masses, hoping that separation will allow them to avoid being lost amongst the changing winds that globalisation has encouraged.

Similar to the Trump campaigns, and despite their pretences, this is the sign of a nation that has lost confidence in itself.
Brexit is just a huge fucking joke man.

Most of the guys didn't know what they voted for, needless to say they had no idea of the real consequences, for the UK and for Europe as a whole.
This will be a really interesting topic for future undergraduates. As well as actual ones haha.

[Vlerchan]

Most of the guys didn't know what they voted for, needless to say they had no idea of the real consequences, for the UK and for Europe as a whole.
This will be a really interesting topic for future undergraduates. As well as actual ones haha.
The best line of news I read this morning, was the reporting on the trader, who has he filled entered purchases, kept muttering under his breath:

"Irrational, irrational, irrational".

---

I agree agree. Though that doesn't contradict the point of my earlier post. None of them were really sure of the consequences, other than it would place them outside their present condition.

[dxcxdzv]

Indeed, I followed the news the whole day.
The City was on fire even last night, before the final results.

And when the populists' promises revealed to be all wrong it literally finished everyone off.

Short term consequences were pretty obvious to me. But as said multiple times through the different threads the final outcome will depend of the kind of deal the UK gets with the EU. Especially concerning the interior market.

[Stronk Serb]

According to some Google Trends statistics "What is the EU?" and "What is Brexit?" have increased by +250% as terms of research, and this... just after the votes closed.

Btw most of the arguments were around the £350 Bn a week, which is a false number actually.


Cameron prepared it, seriously. I bet there was two texts already prepared at the 10 Downing Street, one for the Leave case and one for the Remain one.
Cameron knows the next months/years aren't gonna be well and I assume he doesn't want to be held responsible for that.
Furthermore as he is pro-EU I don't think he would like to negotiate himself with the EU, too bitter.
Btw he held a referendum due to the populist pressure.

He could always tell them to fuck off, happens here all the time.

Am I wrong to consider this a populist revolt? The biggest pro-Leave areas were those with considerable levels of unemployment and social degradation, otherwise. It was no proud nation forcefully asserting it's right to sovereignty, but just the cowering masses, hoping that separation will allow them to avoid being lost amongst the changing winds that globalisation has encouraged.

Similar to the Trump campaigns, and despite their pretences, this is the sign of a nation that has lost confidence in itself.


This, BTW.

Well, like I said, it's a result of a streak of bad choices done by the UK government in the last decade or two. I think both the EU and the UK will have problems after this. I also read that Austria is preparing to leave. This could cause the EU to fall apart if it gathers enough momentum now. It would be fucking hilarious if our poliricians would keep taking us down the road to the European Union, just to realise that at the end of it, there is no Union to join.

[Vlerchan]

The City was on fire even last night, before the final results.
Can you get me a link for this news source?

But as said multiple times through the different threads the final outcome will depend of the kind of deal the UK gets with the EU. Especially concerning the interior market.
I imagine their potential GDP will be permanently lowered, even into the long-run.

Everyone knows about the Finance firms offshoring now, but I also have it from insiders the understanding that some bigger British firms are also leaving for Eastern Europe.

[Pilyk]

That's so sad they leave us. There's a lot of English people who are living here in France, and also in Spain, and they reprensent much of our tourists, plus I've been 3 times in the UK. In my opinion we are strongly tied between people.
The European Union was such a good idea to promote peace, trade and exchanges between people. It brought lot of things to UK as social laws to protect the workers and helps to agriclture, freedom of movement... And after Tatcher it seems they had all the benefits without much of its drawbacks ?
It's quite hearthbreaking and alarming the EU turned in what did'nt manage to evolve all these years through. How dreary was the European answer to the Greecian crisis for instance ? Hope there would be no troubles whith Scotland and Northen Ireland issues, as they were more Remainers...

[Flapjack]

I saw this on the news this morning - seriously though that big red bus with 'We'll have £350 million a week to spend on the NHS' was one of the things they kept going on about. When Farage said on the news this morning it won't necessarily go to the NHS I wasn't happy.

Anyway another point that I would like to bring up is how the result is unfair (in a way, in my opinion). With 16.4 million people wishing to remain in the EU, surely their opinions should be taken into account as well. I think in the Papal elections they have to have 67% majority or something like that, so that would have shown what most of the nation wanted. I think there's a petition somewhere on the government's website calling for a second referendum which has 185,000 signatures at the moment.

Another point is that the age demographics show that older people tended to vote for Brexit, while younger people voted for Remain, but it's the younger people who will have to live with it, not the younger.
I hope they don't envoke article 50 and we get another referendum now people are seeing the truth! Thing is though I am not a fan of elections like this happening often, image if the SNP had their way and they had an independance vote every year? If we don't like them always demanding elections then we should hold ourselves to the same standard.

[Vlerchan]

A petition calling for Sadiq Khan to declare London an independent state after the UK voted to quit the EU has been signed by thousands of people.
The petition's organiser James O'Malley, said the capital was "a world city" which should "remain at the heart of Europe".

Nearly 60% of people in the capital backed the Remain campaign, in stark contrast to most of the country.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36620401

#Leave2.

[dxcxdzv]

Can you get me a link for this news source?

Lol, if you can read French! I've read that on News Republic at the very morning, it'll be hard to find the article now.

Basically it just said that traders were making phone calls all the night as the results were arriving.
Here:
http://www.franceculture.fr/emissions/le-billet-economique/brexit-nuit-blanche-la-city

You can use the Google Translate system, it won't be proficient but still you should get the point.

[Vlerchan]

Lol, if you can read French!
I actually read decent enough French and understand the general jist of it.

:)

Basically it just said that traders were making phone calls all the night as the results were arriving.
I work in an investment bank and whilst I was working the evening shift that seemed more than clear from the amount of requests I saw logged from the early hours of this morning.

[sqishy]

Yes definitely. The younger voters will have to live with this decision (which, the older people basically voted for) for 70, possible 80 + years, whilst the older people will only have to live with it for 10-20 years at the most. When you also take into account that student university towns (ie. Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol, Oxbridge etc.) mainly voted Remain, it shows that the younger population did not want Brexit. In my opinion, the older people have pretty much destroyed student's futures (well in my pro-Remain opinion)


Would you favour a certain democratic voting system then that factors in age?



Cameron knows the next months/years aren't gonna be well and I assume he doesn't want to be held responsible for that.


The closest we'll get to seeing his appearance of quiet but determined evacuation, I feel.



I work in an investment bank and whilst I was working the evening shift that seemed more than clear from the amount of requests I saw logged from the early hours of this morning.

What is it that you do generally? (Excuse my apparent/literal ignorance!)

How far do you think this turbulence will go on for?

[Vlerchan]

What is it that you do generally? (Excuse my apparent/literal ignorance!)
I work in the data science arm of the asset management department. The work I'm doing primarily revolves around ensuring that our traders have accurate and up-to-date information - which means auditing a lot of the weird-looking trades [exceptions], filing daily reports - and helping in the automation of some of the more menial aspects of database management (i.e. putting poor Indians out of work).

I am also just a lowly intern, but from what I've gathered so far that's just an excuse to pay me less whilst someone goes on leave.

How far do you think this turbulence will go on for?
Until events become relatively certain again, which won't be until Brexit negotiations with the EU have ceased. It will calm before that, but the uncertainty will still be a drag on activity.

[Atlantis]

Would you favour a certain democratic voting system then that factors in age?


Well in an ideal world yes , but that would be sort of hard to implement. What I think should happen though, is the Government should consider the viewpoint of the younger voters (the people who will actually be affected by Brexit) and not implement the Lisbon Treaty/Article 50.

[sqishy]

I work in the data science arm of the asset management department. The work I'm doing primarily revolves around ensuring that our traders have accurate and up-to-date information - which means auditing a lot of the weird-looking trades [exceptions], filing daily reports - and helping in the automation of some of the more menial aspects of database management (i.e. putting poor Indians out of work).

I am also just a lowly intern, but from what I've gathered so far that's just an excuse to pay me less whilst someone goes on leave.

Alright then, sounds more interesting than I guess it really is (apart from those exception audits maybe).



Until events become relatively certain again, which won't be until Brexit negotiations with the EU have ceased. It will calm before that, but the uncertainty will still be a drag on activity.

Any time from October on then?

A petition calling for Sadiq Khan to declare London an independent state after the UK voted to quit the EU has been signed by thousands of people.
The petition's organiser James O'Malley, said the capital was "a world city" which should "remain at the heart of Europe".

Nearly 60% of people in the capital backed the Remain campaign, in stark contrast to most of the country.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36620401

#Leave2.

Sounds more interesting than even for me.

- - - - - - - -

Well in an ideal world yes , but that would be sort of hard to implement. What I think should happen though, is the Government should consider the viewpoint of the younger voters (the people who will actually be affected by Brexit) and not implement the Lisbon Treaty/Article 50.

Right.

- - - - - - -

Just saw the charts of today, basically looks like a chisel was hammered into it.

The only non-negative number change I am seeing is for natural gas as commodity, for whatever reasons.

[Vlerchan]

Alright then, sounds more interesting than I guess it really is (apart from those exception audits maybe).
Those are actually profoundly uninteresting.

It's the automation aspect of the work I enjoy.

Any time from October on then?
From right at this moment, until probably 2019.

Just saw the charts of today, basically looks like a chisel was hammered into it.

The only non-negative number change I am seeing is for natural gas as commodity, for whatever reasons.
You should check the price of gold, and the stocks of gold mining firms. This morning, the stocks on those had risen about 30% each.

[sqishy]

Those are actually profoundly uninteresting.

It's the automation aspect of the work I enjoy.


From right at this moment, until probably 2019.


You should check the price of gold, and the stocks of gold mining firms. This morning, the stocks on those had risen about 30% each.

Whatever floats your boat :P .

- - - - - - - -

Alright - a long time then.

- - - - - - - -

I know almost nothing about stock markets except how they generally work, that negative numbers are bad, and that the value of gold is relatively variable over history (from my knowledge on the chemical element itself).

EDIT: Checked silver and platinum, which are doing apparently exceptionally well. Copper not so much though:

Au: +56.00 to 1319.10 [+4.43%]
Ag: +.42 to 17.77 [+2.40%]
Pt: +20.70 to 987.00 [+2.14%]
Cu: -0.05 to 2.11 [-2.27%]

Didn't know that silver was only about 9 times more valuable than copper.

- - - - - - - -

I know I'm doing a random digression here, but it's a bit fun actually.

[Vlerchan]

I know almost nothing about stock markets except how they generally work, that negative numbers are bad, and that the value of gold is relatively variable over history (from my knowledge on the chemical element itself).

How are silver and platinum?
Are there other metals used significantly like gold in this way? Reise is a better man to ask about all this: he's taking finance, whilst I only encounter it reluctantly.

From a quick look at the stocks, platinum and silver were relatively stable as commodities (edit: I'm wrong, for whatever reason I scoffed at 4%, perhaps given the wild swings of this morning) . For probably historical reasons, gold is where investors go to sink their cash when things are looking uncertain, anyways.

[sqishy]

Reise is a better man to ask about all this: he's taking finance, whilst I only encounter it reluctantly.

From a quick look at the stocks, platinum and silver were relatively stable as commodities. For probably historical reasons, gold is where investors go to sink their cash when things are looking uncertain.

A relatively inert entity in economics as well as physics, basically.

[StoppingTom]

I know that the Brexit will help push another independence vote in Scotland, but I haven't read much about Ireland/a united Ireland? Paraxiom Vlerchan

[Vlerchan]

I know that the Brexit will help push another independence vote in Scotland, but I haven't read much about Ireland/a united Ireland?
There's been noises made in the direction of an independence vote for the North, too.

Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness has called for a border poll on a united Ireland, after the UK has voted to leave the EU.

Support for the EU is considerably higher in Northern Ireland than the rest of the UK.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-referendum-result-latest-live-border-poll-united-martin-mcguinness-a7099276.html

It's worth noting that Northern Ireland receives funds from the EU.

It, also, at the moment runs quite a deficit which can be expected to grow. Some people have raised the question of whether it's functioning is a sustainable option for Britian, given the costs associated with it, so that might come to play a part in this, too. I'm unsure we'll see any major push, though I could be mis-analysing. However,it was interesting to see the overwhelming support for Remain, being as the Unionist party publically backed Leave.

[dxcxdzv]

Gold's value increasing? Jeez this news is 5,000 years old.
There's a direct negative correlation between money's value and gold's value, and more generally an increase in money supply tends to push gold upwards on the markets.
Furthermore gold always acted as safe haven. Funny how a proton in more can change everything.

Precious metals should have a decent life.

It's a bit tougher for more industrial metals like copper, tin or nickel.
Steel is stable as hell btw.

Don't forget that raw materials are negotiated worldwide, 'guess there will always(?) be someone to backup (handle) a fall due to Brexit (China, for today).
Real changes will appear with the new trade agreements.

I'm definitely more worried about British companies' shares.

[Gumleaf]

A London trip next year is back on the cards now since the pound value is free falling. Thanks Britain for your help. :))

[Devinsoccer]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/britain-brexit-european-union-referendum.html?_r=0


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I can see economic hardships for the UK due to transition to new markets and/or trying to regain lost ones. I think they should have stayed and tried to game the system, but seeing how Cameron got them privileged status, I do not think it is possible. Still, it's a good thing they went for national sovereignty. An independent Scotland could be a possibility.

Let's see how this plays out in the fourthcomming years. Will it turn out badly or good? I say badly. Because of this I think the european union may turn on Brittain and WWIII will break out.

[phuckphace]

L.J.L. @ Lügenpresse and anyone who takes their b8, the UK managed just fine for all those centuries before the Common Market/EU was a thing and they'll manage without it. I expect an initial bumpy patch but as for the sky falling it's just not going to happen.

what WILL happen: the Empire is made great again

[Flapjack]

L.J.L. @ Lügenpresse and anyone who takes their b8, the UK managed just fine for all those centuries before the Common Market/EU was a thing and they'll manage without it. I expect an initial bumpy patch but as for the sky falling it's just not going to happen.

what WILL happen: the Empire is made great again
Are you trolling or are you actually serious?

[Vlerchan]

[...] and they'll manage without it.
No-one is claiming the U.K. won't manage independent of the common market. People are rather arguing that it finds itself in a diminished position and is promoting a wider social current that is deleterious to the West's geopolitical positioning.

---

Edit: Pro-Brexit MEP stated about an hour ago Free Movement might continue ('would not necessarily' end) - N.B. Remain argued during the debate this would be required to access the common market. This is after one leading Brexit member emphasised last night that there would be no radical curtailment of immigration: the drawbridge would not be drawn up.

So in the end, it's increasingly looking like, long-run, nothing will really change; which, considering all the bother of this, is quite sad.

[sqishy]

I know that the Brexit will help push another independence vote in Scotland, but I haven't read much about Ireland/a united Ireland?

Vlerchan would know more about the details, but from what I know the predominantly Irish nationalist areas of NI voted to remain, and the Unionists voted to leave.

Nevertheless, the Sinn Féin party has an intent to push further arguments for having NI split from the UK, and even join the rest of Ireland.


Gold's value increasing? Jeez this news is 5,000 years old.
There's a direct negative correlation between money's value and gold's value, and more generally an increase in money supply tends to push gold upwards on the markets.
Furthermore gold always acted as safe haven. Funny how a proton in more can change everything.

Precious metals should have a decent life.

It's a bit tougher for more industrial metals like copper, tin or nickel.
Steel is stable as hell btw.

Don't forget that raw materials are negotiated worldwide, 'guess there will always(?) be someone to backup (handle) a fall due to Brexit (China, for today).
Real changes will appear with the new trade agreements.

I'm definitely more worried about British companies' shares.

Making sense.

[Vlerchan]

Is this event being over-emphasised, in your view?
Not at all. There might be little result from this in material terms, in the end up, but that doesn't detract from its significance, through what it will do for British relations with Europe, with itself, and the trajectory that British politics is going to take. Without a doubt, this is a very big deal.

On the above, Johnson has begun seriously playing down the Brexit campaign's anti-immigration rhetoric. I don wonder what's going to happen with the British people as they begin to realise that they had been lied to by Leave.

Did you ever see a slightly drunk man trying that trick with the tablecloth? He thinks he can whip the cloth off the table with a fast, clean snap, but leave all the crockery perfectly intact. He gives a sharp tug and stands back with a triumphant flourish as the plates and glasses come flying to the ground and shatter all around him.

That’s what Brexit is like.

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-brexit-fantasy-is-about-to-come-crashing-down-1.2698974

Fintan O'Toole also wrote a fabulous piece for the Irish Times. One of the most important points that have yet to be noted is:

There is, of course, a tried and trusted way to hold this kind of rickety social coalition together. It is to turn up the volume on nationalism and xenophobia, to deflect the inevitable disappointment anger on to Them.

The English nationalists have just lost their favourite scapegoat, the EU. When their dream turns sour, where will they find another?

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-brexit-fantasy-is-about-to-come-crashing-down-1.2698974

Boris and co. realise that whilst it can spin the European Union as the great bad, it can't do the same to Europeans, so this should be interesting.

[Judean Zealot]

Even if Britain's borders remain open, they will definitely gain the liberty to create their own trade deals, which should boost trade with the Commonwealth and emerging markets.

[dxcxdzv]

Even if Britain's borders remain open, they will definitely gain the liberty to create their own trade deals, which should boost trade with the Commonwealth and emerging markets.
Great Commonwealth countries are already in agreement (or partnership) with the EU.
Btw a great (great.) part of the UK overseas trade is made with the EU. And now the UK will have to renegotiate approximately... all the agreements with an angry EU.

And the current commercial balance for non-EU trade for the UK has a deficit of £8.9 Bn (I'll search for annualized data).

Non-EU Imports for April 2016 were £21.9 billion. This was an increase of £2.2 billion (11 per cent) compared with last month, and an increase of £6.0 billion (38 per cent) compared with April 2015.

In Non-EU trade the UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £8.9 billion.
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

I wonder what emerging market you're talking about.

[Vlerchan]

Does anyone believe that Commonwealth states will prioritise the U.K. ahead of the E.U. in trade talks anyways?

Obama was quite clear the U.K. would go to he back of the Q so far as trade-talks were concerned, and I'm unsure why that would be any different with other developed states.

[Flapjack]

Does anyone believe that Commonwealth states will prioritise the U.K. ahead of the E.U. in trade talks anyways?

Obama was quite clear the U.K. would go to he back of the Q so far as trade-talks were concerned, and I'm unsure why that would be any different with other developed states.
The only people that believe that are British nationalists that think the commonwealth worships the UK. The commonwealth are friendly to the UK and will give the UK trade deals but they will prioritise whatever is in their best interests.

The USA is not in the commonwealth and tbh I think that was fear mongering. The place in the UK will be determined by how much money it will make them. Of course behind all the countries needed for their tax havens.

[Judean Zealot]

Does anyone believe that Commonwealth states will prioritise the U.K. ahead of the E.U. in trade talks anyways?

Obama was quite clear the U.K. would go to he back of the Q so far as trade-talks were concerned, and I'm unsure why that would be any different with other developed states.

I agree with George Soros on the impact for Brussels: the Eurofederalist project is over, and the Euro unsustainable. The entire EU probably has less than a decade to live. I truly believe that it is in the interests of America and the rest of the world to prioritise the UK rather than the EU.

Obama was campaigning for the EU - of course he said that. The question is whether this threat will go the way of Osborne's "emergency budget". Besides, Obama's out soon and Clinton has given no indication of sidelining the UK. Again, it is in the American interest that the pound strengthen, Brexit notwithstanding.

Reise

I was thinking about Southern Asia, the Pacific rim, and/or China. I apologise for the rather sloppy term of "emerging" markets: South Asia is the only emerging market that I was referring to.

[Vlerchan]

I agree with George Soros on the impact of Brussels: the Eurofederalist project is over, and the Euro unsustainable.
The Euro was never a preferable and that's been clear to basically every educated observer since 2008 (and lots of them before that). It is probably sustainable though, given to the huge costs that accompany the re-introduction of national currencies.

This is because that would probably result in considerable financial malaise.

Professor Eichengreen has rather famously argued it would result in the mother of all financial crisis's. It's in no state's interests to pull out of the euro other than for reasons of competitiveness. Investors realise this, and understand that this process will place them in a weaker condition. Thus, investors have a massive incentive to swap into securities denominated in safer holdings. Cue, wide-scale, systematic disinvestment.

Originally posted 17 November 2007, this Vox column is more relevant than ever arguing that adopting the euro is effectively irreversible. Leaving would require lengthy preparations, which, given the anticipated devaluation, would trigger the mother of all financial crises. National households and firms would shift deposits to other Eurozone banks producing a system-wide bank run. Investors, trying to escape, would create a bond-market crisis. Here is what the train wreck would look like.

http://voxeu.org/article/eurozone-breakup-would-trigger-mother-all-financial-crises

This isn't a preferable state of affairs, but it is the actual one.

---

I feel I should also add that the breakup of the Eurozone was being placed at around 90% by the likes of Stratfor back in 2011. The risk has ebbed and flows since, but I'm always sceptical of these claims that place the death of European integration as imminent - or close to it.

I truly believe that it is in the interests of America and the rest of the world to prioritise the UK rather than the EU.
The disintegration of the EU doesn't benefit the US. The EU, without a doubt, holds more political clout vis-á-vis Russia, when united. The most important aspect of it's unification in this regard, is the interdependencies coercing it into acting as a single, coherent block. Divided, policy would not only be much weaker, but also a lot more unlikely.

The rest-of-the-world is also too broad to analyse, when a number of states have conflicting interests.

Obama was campaigning for the EU - of course he said that. The question is whether this threat will go the way of Osborne's "emergency budget". Besides, Obama's out soon and Clinton has given no indication of sidelining the UK. Again, it is in the American interest that the pound strengthen, Brexit notwithstanding.
Being still willing to entertain the UK as a strategic partner and deciding it has the same prioritisation with a reduced access to the European fulcrums of power, as well as reduced GDP vis-á-vis Europe, are two different things altogether. No politicians in the US claimed that the special relationship had reached an abrupt end, but there was clear exasperation amongst some at the vote (inc. Clinton).

Your actual argument seems to be - and correct me if I'm wrong - that it's a waste of time to deal with the EU, since it's collapse is inevitable and such effort will come to ruin. You appreciate that Britain, as a strategic partner, finds itself in whats a diminished position, though?

[Judean Zealot]

Your actual argument seems to be - and correct me if I'm wrong - that it's a waste of time to deal with the EU, since it's collapse is inevitable and such effort will come to ruin.

Yes. I might add that I've held this pessimistic view of the EU's future even prior to the entire Brexit saga, on the grounds of the increasing friction between the periphery and the more affluent states, and especially with regards the Euro. Brexit merely exacerbated an already failing state of affairs.
You appreciate that Britain, as a strategic partner, finds itself in whats a diminished position, though?

Yes, in the short run. However, I should point out that money isn't the sole definer of the state of a country. Sovereignty, habeas corpus, and representative rule are all far more valuable than short term stability, and all were undermined by the EU. If all humanity looked at was brief financial security, what advances would have been made? Would the American revolution have happened? The Irish revolution of 1920? The Israeli war of independence? All of these were uncomfortable at the time, and undoubtedly financially unsound, yet they have repayed those who suffered a hundredfold for their labours.

In the longer run I believe Britain will be better off than the rest of Europe if they reestablish their sovereignty properly.

------

It also doesn't matter that America doesn't want the dissolution of the EU. It's going to happen regardless, so they may as well focus on the entity that won't cease to exist in the near future.

----

Of course, we can't either forget the drama going down in both major parties. Personally, I'm hoping Corbyn stays in as chairman of Labour so that the Tories/however UKIP reincarnates can completely dominate a snap election.

[lliam]

The English nationalists have just lost their favourite scapegoat, the EU. When their dream turns sour, where will they find another?


As I always thought the EU was really meant to be. From its origins on. :D

[phuckphace]

moral of the story never sell your nation to ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((frictionless global commerce)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) or you'll have a hell of a time getting it back

[sqishy]

Not at all. There might be little result from this in material terms, in the end up, but that doesn't detract from its significance, through what it will do for British relations with Europe, with itself, and the trajectory that British politics is going to take. Without a doubt, this is a very big deal.

On the above, Johnson has begun seriously playing down the Brexit campaign's anti-immigration rhetoric. I don wonder what's going to happen with the British people as they begin to realise that they had been lied to by Leave.

Did you ever see a slightly drunk man trying that trick with the tablecloth? He thinks he can whip the cloth off the table with a fast, clean snap, but leave all the crockery perfectly intact. He gives a sharp tug and stands back with a triumphant flourish as the plates and glasses come flying to the ground and shatter all around him.

That’s what Brexit is like.

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-brexit-fantasy-is-about-to-come-crashing-down-1.2698974

Fintan O'Toole also wrote a fabulous piece for the Irish Times. One of the most important points that have yet to be noted is:

There is, of course, a tried and trusted way to hold this kind of rickety social coalition together. It is to turn up the volume on nationalism and xenophobia, to deflect the inevitable disappointment anger on to Them.

The English nationalists have just lost their favourite scapegoat, the EU. When their dream turns sour, where will they find another?

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-brexit-fantasy-is-about-to-come-crashing-down-1.2698974

Boris and co. realise that whilst it can spin the European Union as the great bad, it can't do the same to Europeans, so this should be interesting.

'Interesting' is the best word to attempt at summing this whole series of events up.

- - - - - - - -

While I think that a slow disintegration of the EU is an extreme possible future situation, I don't think it is very likely.

The EU won't go away easily.

[Vlerchan]

Ugh. Lost the effort-post I had prepared in response to Judean Zealot.

I will see if I can retype it some time during the weak. The fundamental point of difference though, is that I don't believe the EU will collapse.

I also don't believe that a single state-actor believes, which undermines any development strategy that might be imagined on its presumption.

There was more, but it needs to be painted in more detail than I'm able for right now.

[DVDan19]

Btw did you see that most of the people that voted to leave actually regret their decision because they were not well informed and they thought it was going to be all fine suddenly, so an important petition is making its way to make another referendum http://abcnews.go.com/International/million-sign-petition-calling-eu-referendum-uk-votes/story?id=40130280

[sqishy]

Btw did you see that most of the people that voted to leave actually regret their decision because they were not well informed and they thought it was going to be all fine suddenly, so an important petition is making its way to make another referendum http://abcnews.go.com/International/million-sign-petition-calling-eu-referendum-uk-votes/story?id=40130280

Most? I would not say so.

Also, I'm seeing sources that only 30% of the signatures are from the UK itself.

[Judean Zealot]

We love democracy... When it goes our way.

Just imagine how Remain would act if they won and Leave demanded another referendum.

[Judean Zealot]

My favourite MP tells the French where it's at.
qE_EQ9_v2a0

[sqishy]

The referendum is non-binding, as a reminder.
Here is also an interesting POV on this all, on if the brexit will actually occur:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/26/an-astute-online-comment-has-many-wondering-whether-brexit-may-ever-happen/?tid=sm_fb

[JohnJack]

The referendum is non-binding, as a reminder.
Here is also an interesting POV on this all, on if the brexit will actually occur:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/26/an-astute-online-comment-has-many-wondering-whether-brexit-may-ever-happen/?tid=sm_fb
Despite being non-binding, it would be disrespectful to the democratic process to not go forward with the will of the people.

[dxcxdzv]

Despite being non-binding, it would be disrespectful to the democratic process to not go forward with the will of the people.
Chances are a majority of the people is now for the Remain.

Democracy, democracy... where's your logic...

[StoppingTom]

The referendum is non-binding, as a reminder.
Here is also an interesting POV on this all, on if the brexit will actually occur:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/26/an-astute-online-comment-has-many-wondering-whether-brexit-may-ever-happen/?tid=sm_fb

I read this and it's wild because I don't want to root for David Cameron but if this is true that's an amazing move.

[sqishy]

Despite being non-binding, it would be disrespectful to the democratic process to not go forward with the will of the people.

With a certain proportion of the leave-voters apparently regretting their decision, it is quite possible that the majority of the UK electorate now want it to remain.


Reise

The democracy was acted out in this referendum though. There is a conflict of a political system, and certain reasoning. The problem here is that the referendum takes a snapshot of the electorate's views on something, which can and are subject to change. I'm arguing that this referendum was a proper use of democracy as we know it, and also that I'm using it as an example of why I don't see democracy as the best thing possible. I have not found what could be, but I don't see democracy as being so already (for a while).


I read this and it's wild because I don't want to root for David Cameron but if this is true that's an amazing move.

Taking recent GoT experience, this wouldn't be much of a surprise :P .

If this is true, then it is an exceptionally good plan.
I hope it is not true though.

[dxcxdzv]

Reise

The democracy was acted out in this referendum though. There is a conflict of a political system, and certain reasoning. The problem here is that the referendum takes a snapshot of the electorate's views on something, which can and are subject to change.

Ikr. But that wasn't my point.

[sqishy]

Ikr. But that wasn't my point.

Your point being that the referendum is now a 'false measure' of the UK electorate's majority position?

[dxcxdzv]

Your point being that the referendum is now a 'false measure' of the UK electorate's majority position?
It was rather a criticism of direct democracy as a whole.
But I guess it can be subject to multiple interpretations. Which is cool.

Oh, btw:
VEALC1z3QG8

[sqishy]

It was rather a criticism of direct democracy as a whole.
But I guess it can be subject to multiple interpretations. Which is cool.

Oh, btw:
VEALC1z3QG8

Basically yes.

Very good video too.

[dxcxdzv]

BREXING NEWS - UK just lost S&P's AAA

The UK has been stripped of its last AAA rating as credit agency Standard & Poor’s warned of the economic, fiscal and constitutional risks the country now faces as a result of the EU referendum result.

The two-notch downgrade came with a warning that S&P could slash its rating again. It described the result of the vote as “a seminal event” that would “lead to a less predictable stable and effective policy framework in the UK”.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/27/property-and-financial-shares-slide-as-referendum-fallout-hits-stock-markets

[Microcosm]

Does anyone else see this as something that shouldn't be left up to democracy?

A.) The Remain camp seems to be generally promoting their cause without providing reasons. They're just screaming out their opinion and spreading propaganda. That's democracy, alright.

http://cdn.sandiegouniontrib.com/img/photos/2016/06/19/b7cd49a6f8ad3e1e9c0f6a706700d2c5_tx600.JPEG?1cac1c26287decec7a3e591fce9b6936b1ed dfe5

Do people actually let this sort of crap influence their decision?

B.) Most people likely don't seem to fully understand all of the intricacies of the economic problems that Brexit causes. It seems like a safer and more reliable decision could be made if it were made by a small group of educated, popularly elected Brits who are willing to have proper debates.

Democracy should totally have a say, but I have doubts that it should be the deciding factor.

-

P.S. Take this response with a grain of salt. While I've followed some of the arguments and news coverage of the event, I don't know a ton about the referendum nor do I live in Europe. I'm merely sharing my opinion about what appears to me to be the method of the outward expression of beliefs of people involved. Basically, if I'm wrong about something, feel free to correct me.

[ethan-s]

Go Britain. If I was certain trump could get the us out of the UN, I would support him in a heartbeat.

[Leprous]

Go Britain. If I was certain trump could get the us out of the UN, I would support him in a heartbeat.

Honestly I don't see how that would be a good thing either. The brexit isn't exactly a good thing. Mainly because what has happened is that the older people of Britian voted leave and by doing that they potentially ruined the future of their children and grand children.

[dxcxdzv]

The Remain camp seems to be generally promoting their cause without providing reasons.
It is true that the Remain camp didn't provide many arguments. Mainly because it was easier for the opposition (it's always easier for an opposition) and most of the EU's benefits are ommited or taken for granted by the British.

Do people actually let this sort of crap influence their decision?

No, people let a bus with a false promise from the Leave camp influence them.
They let arguments that are absolutely false influence them.
They completely ignore all the economical and political context.

Most people likely don't seem to fully understand all of the intricacies of the economic problems that Brexit causes.
Most people likely don't seem to even know what they're doing.
The Leaves admitted to have no plan. No. Plan.

[mattsmith48]

We love democracy... When it goes our way.

Just imagine how Remain would act if they won and Leave demanded another referendum.

Your right on that, when your side win democracy is the best thing ever and is what should decide everything in the world, but people need to understand that sometime your side lose, its just part of the game, and no matter how armfull the result will be to your country or the rest of the world, threatning to move to Canada everytime stupid people get their way is not the thing to do, you just have to accept that this is what people wanted and voted for no matter how wrong they were to do this.

[Uniquemind]

Your right on that, when your side win democracy is the best thing ever and is what should decide everything in the world, but people need to understand that sometime your side lose, its just part of the game, and no matter how armfull the result will be to your country or the rest of the world, threatning to move to Canada everytime stupid people get their way is not the thing to do, you just have to accept that this is what people wanted and voted for no matter how wrong they were to do this.

It's a horrible decision and frankly I think you're wrong to rationalize faults this way.

There must be a mechanism in law and judicial and executive procedure that allows a rollback of a decision the "dumb public" regrets only AFTER they fully understand the consequences.


Now there's talk the UK will split apart based on the statistical analysis based on regions of the UK actually having strong majorities to be in the "remain" camp.


So this will be a mess and for this reason the British Gov. Has not envokes Article 50 yet, because then they must finish divorce proceedings within 2 years, no exceptions.

[mattsmith48]

It's a horrible decision and frankly I think you're wrong to rationalize faults this way.

There must be a mechanism in law and judicial and executive procedure that allows a rollback of a decision the "dumb public" regrets only AFTER they fully understand the consequences.


Now there's talk the UK will split apart based on the statistical analysis based on regions of the UK actually having strong majorities to be in the "remain" camp.


So this will be a mess and for this reason the British Gov. Has not envokes Article 50 yet, because then they must finish divorce proceedings within 2 years, no exceptions.

As horrible this decision is, its what people voted for and you have to accept that, you cant just say we'll have a vote on something but if we dont agree with the outcome we'll just try to find a way to block it.

[Uniquemind]

As horrible this decision is, its what people voted for and you have to accept that, you cant just say we'll have a vote on something but if we dont agree with the outcome we'll just try to find a way to block it.

No, I don't have to accept it, I agree with democracy when it is known and provable the masses voted intelligently and. With great deliberation and forethought and understood the pros cons of a decision.

In this case I consider any result invalid, if it's provable that their is groaning and moaning since the electorate obviously didn't understand their choice.

To say I must accept democracy because it was amazing idea in the 1700's and 1800's is dogmatic. I in the 21st century now raise the bar.

[mattsmith48]

No, I don't have to accept it, I agree with democracy when it is known and provable the masses voted intelligently and. With great deliberation and forethought and understood the pros cons of a decision.

In this case I consider any result invalid, if it's provable that their is groaning and moaning since the electorate obviously didn't understand their choice.

To say I must accept democracy because it was amazing idea in the 1700's and 1800's is dogmatic. I in the 21st century now raise the bar.

Theres is more people that voted yes than no so they have to leave, might not be a perfect system, but its how it works. Whether or not the voters were informed enough to make a decision is something that should have been tought of before the vote took place not something that is to complain about after you lose. Yes most of the people who voted to leave were just scare of Muslim killing them and Immigrants stealling their jobs, was it wrong to base your decision on that? Yes. Is it a reason to not do what people voted for or asking for another vote? No. They should have educated the voters on this before they voted, now its to late

[Vlerchan]

[...] so they have to leave, might not be a perfect system, but its how it works [...]
No. The UK is based on the ideal of parliamentary sovereignty. There is no constitutional merit in a referendum result. So, in legal terms, it actually means nothing.

In political terms, it holds significance. But if we are going to attempt to deal with the issue in political terms, you'll first need to justify why direct democracy is a valid means of governing in the first place.

[...] an already failing state of affairs [...]
Whilst there's notable cleavages between the centre and the periphery, it's worth noting that the cleavages within the centre is minute. Even if the periphery shrivels up - though I would argue this is difficult, given their attachment through the Euro - Britain leaving the EU is a poor decision on economic grounds.

In particular, whoever thought that The Commonwealth would prefer independent England to Ireland, has probably gotten it quite wrong.

If all humanity looked at was brief financial security, what advances would have been made?
I never claimed that short-run security was of dominant value. The issue I have with Brexit is the manner through which it constrains British long-run potential: both through the manner in constrains trade and economic internationalisation, and through releasing the patently worst of British politics.

There is no natural relationship between increased sovereignty and prosperity. Look at most of the post-colonial South, or Latin America. It certainly opens up opportunities for progress - eg., the economic-internationalisation of the NICs - but there's no reason to presume any sort of causation, here. Further still, Ireland was an economic backwater until it embraced globalisation in the 1960s - and the U.S. advanced on the basis of a frankly exceptional amount of cheap land, and unprecedentedly high levels of immigration throughout its industrialisation phase. If there's a relationship here, it's been with an openness that the British public seems to be increasingly rejecting and not sovereignty.

Furthermore, sovereignty available the 21st century is entirely different to what was advanced in the case of the United States, or even Ireland and Israel. The needs of intentionally-mobile capital dominate economic policy discourse, is the most glaringly obvious. But as labour becomes increasingly specialised, protectionist immigration stances become increasingly untenable. The policy options of any so-called sovereign government are irreparably constrained.

[Porpoise101]

I feel bad for whomever is going to be the new PM... they are going to be unimaginably unpopular. This referendum gutted the political establishment of the UK.

[ethan-s]

Honestly I don't see how that would be a good thing either. The brexit isn't exactly a good thing. Mainly because what has happened is that the older people of Britian voted leave and by doing that they potentially ruined the future of their children and grand children.

I don't think thats true. All they did was say no to a global economy. Lets say they have a recession as a result. All that will do is give them a chance to remake their economy and financial systems the way they want it and (hopefully) make it so that they don't have to pay into a system that distributes tax monies all over the globe to fund useless endeavors.

This referendum gutted the political establishment of the UK.

So what?

[Porpoise101]

So what?
In the short term it makes the leadership weaker and less established. This is bad.

In the long term it allows new ideas to be taken into the mainstream party platforms. This could be good or it could be bad.

[mattsmith48]

No. The UK is based on the ideal of parliamentary sovereignty. There is no constitutional merit in a referendum result. So, in legal terms, it actually means nothing.

In political terms, it holds significance. But if we are going to attempt to deal with the issue in political terms, you'll first need to justify why direct democracy is a valid means of governing in the first place.

The only way I could see that would be rightway to block this is since you guys need a new PM if the that new PM's big part of his campain is not leaving the EU then that would be fine to ignore the referendum result.

The reason countries hold referendums is to ask people what they want if you dont do what people ask for whats the point of having a referendum in the first place?

[Fleek]

People are saying they 'Regrexit' and want a re-vote.

[Uniquemind]

The only way I could see that would be rightway to block this is since you guys need a new PM if the that new PM's big part of his campain is not leaving the EU then that would be fine to ignore the referendum result.

The reason countries hold referendums is to ask people what they want if you dont do what people ask for whats the point of having a referendum in the first place?

My point exactly, referendums, are sometimes very stupid because the public is undisciplined to go full nerd, and actually pay attention to legal and political consequences of various proposals and they aren't thinking dynamically.

More often than not people think much more linearly and on emotion, which is something I really do not like about humanity and wish to change it.

[ethan-s]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn_6sU7O43w

[Vlerchan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn_6sU7O43w
I was going to do a point-by-point rebuttal but there's no substantial points made, and little that isn't either an ad hominem or an argument by association.

On the actual points made:
The EU isn't centralised, and the principals of subsidiarity and proportionality are hard-coded into its legislative process. Furthermore, Cameron had prior managed to extract the garuantee of a national-legislative veto, because one veto wasn't enough.
The fact that such levels of unemployment hasn't transmitted to the U.K. seems an obvious indicator that it's not something essential to the EU.
That was actually it. Oh well.

[Sandra123]

Is good for UK and very bed for other in EU!
EU is under invasion by muslims and must find way to stop them and deported who already cam in EU!

[Leprous]

Is good for UK and very bed for other in EU!
EU is under invasion by muslims and must find way to stop them and deported who already cam in EU!

It's not exactly good for the UK, economicly this is a potential (if not already) economic disaster.

Calling it an invasion is just stupid. They are refugees and honeslty they are humans too. If your country was bombed every single day you would want to leave aswell, imagine if the country you came was like "Yeah we should just deport them all".

Not all Muslims are bad. Also Europe already had a pretty large Muslim population who are natives to these European countries.

Deporting all of them is simply stupid. You will take these people (including young, very young children) who came on foot or in a truck stuffed full of people to run away from their home where they were happy, and you just send them right back like they're animals.

They don't exactly want to be here either, allot of them will most likely go back to their home countries after the current conflicts there are solved.

Also does this involve deporting all Muslims who have lived in the EU for their entire live aswell?

[Exocet]

I feel bad for whomever is going to be the new PM... they are going to be unimaginably unpopular. This referendum gutted the political establishment of the UK.

Too bad Bojo ran away as fast as possible from this mess. He would have made an hilarious duo with Trump.

http://www.onlooker.press/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLv-5wTWIAE83Dj_750x410.jpg

[The Boom]

Without trying to offense the british, I'd say it totally fits them. For centuries England was known as a great empire. They had a large chunk of the earth before their colonies fought back. It doesn't suprise me that the british want to seperate from Europe and be seen as the great nation they are. Although it probably would have been best if they stayed...

[sqishy]

Too bad Bojo ran away as fast as possible from this mess. He would have made an hilarious duo with Trump.

image (http://www.onlooker.press/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLv-5wTWIAE83Dj_750x410.jpg)

You have RETURNED!

Perhaps too much hilarity already is present with Trump. It is arguable that his ego stretches through the media across the world much like how the atmosphere also covers much of the world...

[JohnJack]

More often than not people think much more linearly and on emotion, which is something I really do not like about humanity and wish to change it.

In this case, emotion would have brought one to the same conclusion as logic. In our day and age, the chaining together of European states is both unnecessary and degrading to sovereignty.

[Porpoise101]

unnecessary
If it were so unnecessary, why did it happen in the first place? People don't just give up their national sovereignty for no gain.

[Vlerchan]

Theresa May stormed ahead in the race to become the next prime minister, winning the backing of half of all Conservative MPs in a first round contest that saw Stephen Crabb drop out of the race and endorse her after he slipped into fourth place.
The home secretary won the support of 165 MPs while Andrea Leadsom, the energy minister, came second in the contest with 66, beating the justice secretary, Michael Gove, into third place on 48. Fifth-place finisher Liam Fox, on 16 votes, was eliminated.
Just over an hour after the result was declared, Crabb said he was offering May his “wholehearted support”, arguing that her ability to secure the backing of 165 MPs showed that she was the only candidate who had any hope of unifying the party and country.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jul/05/brexit-live-tory-leadership-tom-watson-unions-jeremy-corbyn

For those who haven't been paying attention, May's policies fall roughly along the lines, of having her cake and eating it too.

I'm becoming increasingly sceptical that anyone is really willing to open negotiations and actually drink from the poison chalice. Word on the street is that the UK government might hold out until the French and German elections and hope that the electorate their demands the curb on immigration required to entice their own swing voters back into a Eurotolerant stance. Though, whether the 'crystallising risks' will allow them to really delay the referendum so long, is worth calling into question.

The most damning feature of the current data, that no-one else seems to be discussing, is the considerably stronger performance of the FTSE 100 versus the FTSE 250*. For those that aren't aware, FTSE 100 firms are much more international-orientated than those on the FTSE 250, and thus the latter makes a much better meter of British buisness strength. Prior to this, the FTSE 250 had handily outpaced the FTSE 100 but now that seems to be sharply reversing.

On a final note of pessimism, I wish Britian luck in finding the investors that might restore their creaking electrical infrastructure, which is another not-really-being-discussed point.

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* Both are still posing nasty losses in dollar terms, though.

[Soundtrack] (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vHvzybkqfo)

[Judean Zealot]

FTSE 250 is creeping up, slowly by surely.

May seems to be the most qualified, but that doesn't mean she can ignore the many Brexit supporting backbenchers with impunity.

[Vlerchan]

FTSE 250 is creeping up, slowly by surely.
It's fallen about 2.5% two days in a row, and this is with a massively weakened pound to support it. It might have rallied last week, but that seems to have stalled.

(It has fallen closer to 3.5% the last two days in a row, when measured in Dollars or Euros).

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I also agree that May seems the most qualified.