Georgia and Chaos

[Porpoise101]

Today I present a country and a problem. I ask for your solutions. Maybe a bunch of teens can come up with something good here.

Georgia. It's that Caucasian country that always seems to be on the edge of madness. It's where they produce revolutions, Stalins, and Orthodox bishops. Let's take a closer look, shall we?
http://www.virtualteen.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7130&stc=1&d=1464625639
Wow nice views right? In this picture we see the defining feature of Georgia, Mountains. The Caucasus Mountains.
http://www.virtualteen.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7132&stc=1&d=1464625639
These are the administrative regions of Georgia. We see her neighbors: Russia, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan. We also see the subdivisions. There are three autonomous regions with different peoples living there. Adjara is the Islamised region that was colonised by the Turks. South Ossetia is populated by the Alans. Abkhazia is populated by Abkhaz people. The last two areas broke away from Georgia following the chaos of the fall of the USSR. Now, they are 'independent' in the Russian sense. Meaning, the areas are away from their original master, but are still slaves to a new one. Today, these areas serve as a place for Russia to stage their troops and invade Georgia. It's not like such an action is impending, but it is leverage for Moscow.
http://www.virtualteen.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7131&stc=1&d=1464625639
See this? this is the topography. Central Georgia is essentially a large valley. It is the heart of the nation. And now that the mountainous regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have been lost, the nation's heart is exposed and vulnerable to attack. That is what happened in the 2009 war, and may happen again.

I don't know what the future is going to be in Caucausia. It's very complicated because it is the home of many different peoples and also natural resources. The best I can hope for is some sort of tense peace, which seems to be the case here for now. Of course, the surrounding areas are more violent currently. Armenia vs Azerbaijan Kurd vs Turk Russian vs separatists.

I do think that it would be best if the Russians backed out entirely from the Caucasus, as should the Iranians and Turks. But that would make them weak and weakness is unacceptable I suppose.

[Vlerchan]

I'm imagining political competition as the New Silk Road is constructed, esp. by China and the U.S., will expunge much Russian influence in Central Asia before mid-century. You can already see it being diplomatically displaced amongst the -stan's to some extent - it's just not going to be able to compete with the economic might of it's competitors.

In that case, the best bet for Georgia is probably to hang on and hope it benefits from the surrounding national economic development - which can bring together it's fractured populace. Can't say I know enough about the specific region to offer much else though, honestly. I'm about to start a book on geopolitical competition in Central Asia, so perhaps I might update with a better answer soon.

Do you have any opinions of your own?

[Porpoise101]

I'm imagining political competition as the New Silk Road is constructed, esp. by China and the U.S., will expunge much Russian influence in Central Asia before mid-century. You can already see it being diplomatically displaced amongst the -stan's to some extent - it's just not going to be able to compete with the economic might of it's competitors.
I agree with much of this. I believe that less will go to America, but instead Europe. You can see nations like Azerbaijan trying to wiggle their way out. They and Turkmenistan are attempting to bypass Russia's economic grip by building a bridge and pipeline across the Caspian. It would go from China to Europe. The decline of Russia will also mean an increase in influence for Iran I would believe. Second problem of Central Asia is decertification and division. The division of the Aral Basin and the Fergana Valley has increased tensions and has reduced the capability of the stans to cooperate in regional issues. China is building infrastructure to manage water, so eventually Russia will be edged out.

For Georgia, I think holding out is a good plan. But I also think that they should continue supporting the Dagestani rebels to get back at the Russians. They shouldn't try to reach out to NATO though, because they will be attacked again. The Caucasians were ruined by Russian colonialism, divided up the people and set them against each other. The most important thing to do is to hold onto the territory it has, and also try to reclaim Abkhazia peacefully. Russia will obstruct it, but it may be possible in a few decades. Ossetia is more difficult because the culture is more different and the other half is Russian occupied.

[phuckphace]

I know almost nothing about Georgia except Stalin and an alphabet that looks like it flew in from Zeta Reticuli. politics-wise I couldn't care less what Russia does or doesn't do in the region - however much Russian influence should remain is entirely up to the people of Georgia and none of the US's business.

[Vlerchan]

[...] but instead Europe.
I don't believe that Europe doesn't possess the necessary cohesion to project it's soft-power.

This might change but I can't see it happening soon.

[...] will also mean an increase in influence for Iran I would believe.
I'm prepared for Iran as a bigger regional actor especially as the relief of sanctions are placing it to be Europe's primary supplier of gas.

Though it is going to be held back by declining birth-rates and a poor economy.

[Porpoise101]

however much Russian influence should remain is entirely up to the people of Georgia and none of the US's business.
Is it really up to the people of Georgia? I would say no. It isn't up to them because they are subordinate to Russian demands. And the minority groups in either country on both sides of the Caucasus are subordinate to the pawns themselves. Is it fair? No. But it is the reality of the situation. And if Russia doesn't bully Georgia, Turkey or NATO will scoop them away. It's a pretty terrible situation for the lowest in power, the Ossetians, Abkhaz, etc.
Vlerchan I believe that Europe will have more influence economically. The Caucasian nations may try to join EU or economic programs with Europe in the distant future. Already much of Azerbaijan's oil goes to Europe.

[Flapjack]

Today I present a country and a problem. I ask for your solutions. Maybe a bunch of teens can come up with something good here.

Georgia. It's that Caucasian country that always seems to be on the edge of madness. It's where they produce revolutions, Stalins, and Orthodox bishops. Let's take a closer look, shall we?
image (http://www.virtualteen.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7130&stc=1&d=1464625639)
Wow nice views right? In this picture we see the defining feature of Georgia, Mountains. The Caucasus Mountains.
image (http://www.virtualteen.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7132&stc=1&d=1464625639)
These are the administrative regions of Georgia. We see her neighbors: Russia, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan. We also see the subdivisions. There are three autonomous regions with different peoples living there. Adjara is the Islamised region that was colonised by the Turks. South Ossetia is populated by the Alans. Abkhazia is populated by Abkhaz people. The last two areas broke away from Georgia following the chaos of the fall of the USSR. Now, they are 'independent' in the Russian sense. Meaning, the areas are away from their original master, but are still slaves to a new one. Today, these areas serve as a place for Russia to stage their troops and invade Georgia. It's not like such an action is impending, but it is leverage for Moscow.
image (http://www.virtualteen.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7131&stc=1&d=1464625639)
See this? this is the topography. Central Georgia is essentially a large valley. It is the heart of the nation. And now that the mountainous regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have been lost, the nation's heart is exposed and vulnerable to attack. That is what happened in the 2009 war, and may happen again.

I don't know what the future is going to be in Caucausia. It's very complicated because it is the home of many different peoples and also natural resources. The best I can hope for is some sort of tense peace, which seems to be the case here for now. Of course, the surrounding areas are more violent currently. Armenia vs Azerbaijan Kurd vs Turk Russian vs separatists.

I do think that it would be best if the Russians backed out entirely from the Caucasus, as should the Iranians and Turks. But that would make them weak and weakness is unacceptable I suppose.

That is definatly an unfortunate situation the country is in! My only idea would be to form an allience with Russia or join NATO?

[Porpoise101]

That is definatly an unfortunate situation the country is in! My only idea would be to form an allience with Russia or join NATO?
Well the last time the Georgians tried to join NATO they got attacked by Russia and the rebels took more land. The capital got shelled and it was a disaster. This war was in 2009 btw. The Georgians also had an alliance with Russia. But they found out that the Russians were supporting the rebels and in retaliation the Georgians started supporting rebels in Russia. Now their relationship is strained at best. And Georgia is in limbo.

[Vlerchan]

Georgia can't join NATO insofar as it's territory remains occupied by Russia. I believe that's derived from a rule in the NATO charter - the same was remarked about Ukraine - but it at least persist as the current position of NATO on its ascension.

I would also count an alliance with Russia as being pretty close to abdicating it's sovereignty.

[Flapjack]

An alliance with Russia would be the essential equivalent to the abdication of its sovereignty.

That would be better than a war, a war that would likely end in them losing their sovereignty. Suppose it depends on how high the threat of war is.

[Porpoise101]

Look, the Russians do not want an alliance I would think at this point. By backing rebels and occupying Georgian territory, they can one day hope to control enough of Georgia's side of the Greater Caucasus Mountains to more or less enslave Tbilisi. And in the situation Georgia is currently in, they can't make any real game changing moves diplomatically. It frees Moscow's attention to deal with the other two Caucasian nations who are much more of a burden to the Russian ambition in the region.

If they were to get invaded anyways, Georgia would capitulate really quickly as they can stage their troops from South Ossetia and drive right into the capital. There will be resistance at the southern border with Turkey and Armenia but the Russian Air Force can clean that up.

If they were to ally with Russia, I believe the industries and such will be gobbled up by Russian firms like what happened in Belarus.

My position..if I were Georgian I would either hang in limbo or try to drag in more regional powers. Turkey is probably the best bet since they are particularly wary about Russia right now.

[Stronk Serb]

Look, the Russians do not want an alliance I would think at this point. By backing rebels and occupying Georgian territory, they can one day hope to control enough of Georgia's side of the Greater Caucasus Mountains to more or less enslave Tbilisi. And in the situation Georgia is currently in, they can't make any real game changing moves diplomatically. It frees Moscow's attention to deal with the other two Caucasian nations who are much more of a burden to the Russian ambition in the region.

If they were to get invaded anyways, Georgia would capitulate really quickly as they can stage their troops from South Ossetia and drive right into the capital. There will be resistance at the southern border with Turkey and Armenia but the Russian Air Force can clean that up.

If they were to ally with Russia, I believe the industries and such will be gobbled up by Russian firms like what happened in Belarus.

My position..if I were Georgian I would either hang in limbo or try to drag in more regional powers. Turkey is probably the best bet since they are particularly wary about Russia right now.

Keep in mind that Turkey came under Russian sanctions after they shot down that Russian jet. If they move into Georgia against the Russians, they will get into a costly war, resulting in bankruptcy and more sanctions. I can surely say that this is not in their interests. Also even if they got into peace talks with Russia, trying to mediate the situation on Georgia's behalf, they wouldn't really gain anything.

[Porpoise101]

Keep in mind that Turkey came under Russian sanctions after they shot down that Russian jet. If they move into Georgia against the Russians, they will get into a costly war, resulting in bankruptcy and more sanctions. I can surely say that this is not in their interests. Also even if they got into peace talks with Russia, trying to mediate the situation on Georgia's behalf, they wouldn't really gain anything.
You are right. If Turkey got involved, it wouldn't really gain much except maybe some influence with Georgia. Even Georgia would not gain much because it would be in the same situation as it is now, except Turkey would take the place of Russia. That being said, Turkey may be better to be with then Russia since it is in NATO.

[Stronk Serb]

You are right. If Turkey got involved, it wouldn't really gain much except maybe some influence with Georgia. Even Georgia would not gain much because it would be in the same situation as it is now, except Turkey would take the place of Russia. That being said, Turkey may be better to be with then Russia since it is in NATO.

Turkey stands to gain too little and lose so much with getting involved. They became a bit dependent on Russian natural gas and when they shot down that Russian fighter, Putin closed the valve. Also their economy suffered more because of Russia forcing tourist agencies to steer away from Turkey.

[Porpoise101]

Turkey stands to gain too little and lose so much with getting involved. They became a bit dependent on Russian natural gas and when they shot down that Russian fighter, Putin closed the valve. Also their economy suffered more because of Russia forcing tourist agencies to steer away from Turkey.
Russia's presence in the Mediterranean is dependent on Turkish cooperation. It's been that way since 1453 :D. If Turkey felt extremely threatened, they would deny them access. I think the Turks are looking for alternative sources anyways.

If there was a war with Ankara backing Georgia, the Turks wouldn't have anything to lose relations-wise because they are already angry at each other. The only thing that they stand to lose is men because the Russian Army and Air Force is superior.

[Stronk Serb]

Russia's presence in the Mediterranean is dependent on Turkish cooperation. It's been that way since 1453 :D. If Turkey felt extremely threatened, they would deny them access. I think the Turks are looking for alternative sources anyways.

If there was a war with Ankara backing Georgia, the Turks wouldn't have anything to lose relations-wise because they are already angry at each other. The only thing that they stand to lose is men because the Russian Army and Air Force is superior.

If a war breaks out, they will get bankrupt and regions where the fighting would take place would be ravaged. Every war is an extreme budget drain. You have to pay for the clothes, weapons, ammunition, fuel and training. Not to mention wages and paying for transportation of said goods and men to the front.