Rigged elections, hell yeah!

[Stronk Serb]

So I went to the voting place and voted, but the elections are obviously rigged. In 2012 there were 5,5 million registered voters and now there are 6,7. About the population of Serbia, without Kosovo where the elections are boycotted. It's like the nineties all over again. There were also reports of dead coming back to life to vote for the Progressives. Happy times.

[Vlerchan]

The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance claims that for the parliamentary elections since 2007 the number of voters registered has held solid at about 6.7 million.

http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?CountryCode=RS

I can't fact check the second claim.

[James Dean]

Here in America they don't make it that obvious.

[Porpoise101]

Well I only looked for a few seconds and if Serbia's population includes Kosovo, then something is wrong. If not, then Serbia must not have many young people (which is another problem).
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160424/3922a0d05d7f7a57007ba1f9cb0294b5.jpg
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160424/8b69a4151c11ff4ec22b824c68c2e166.jpg
If you subtract Kosovo's population then you are left with about 5 mil Serbs total. But if you don't, then the elections may not be rigged.

[Vlerchan]

If you subtract Kosovo's population then you are left with about 5 mil Serbs total. But if you don't, then the elections may not be rigged.
Does the World Bank consider Kosovo independent of Serbia?

If it does then the discrepancies between Serbia's population size and the number of people registered to vote might be accounted for through our sources using the no. of people within Serbia (ex. Kosovo) as the population numbers but the Serbian government reporting the no. registered within Serbia (inc. Kosovo) as the figure for registrations.

[Porpoise101]

Does the World Bank consider Kosovo independent of Serbia?
Ok after checking, it does consider Kosovo to be an independent state.

[Vlerchan]

Serbian prime minister Aleksandar Vucic and his Progressive Party are poised to retain power after parliamentary elections that were also expected to mark a revival of ultra-nationalist, pro-Russian groups in the Balkan state.
Early projections gave the conservative Progressives 56 per cent of votes, followed by their current coalition partner the Socialists on 10.9 per cent.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/serbia-s-pm-aleksandar-vucic-poised-for-re-election-1.2623070

[Stronk Serb]

Well I only looked for a few seconds and if Serbia's population includes Kosovo, then something is wrong. If not, then Serbia must not have many young people (which is another problem).
image (http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160424/3922a0d05d7f7a57007ba1f9cb0294b5.jpg)
image (http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160424/8b69a4151c11ff4ec22b824c68c2e166.jpg)
If you subtract Kosovo's population then you are left with about 5 mil Serbs total. But if you don't, then the elections may not be rigged.

With Kosovo we have about 6,7 million people who are eligible to vote, meaning 5,8% are unable which is bullshit, if you look at the demographics, minors make about 15-20% of the population. There have been rumours of the dead rising to vote for the Progressives or Albanians who boycott the elections voting for the Progressives.

Serbian prime minister Aleksandar Vucic and his Progressive Party are poised to retain power after parliamentary elections that were also expected to mark a revival of ultra-nationalist, pro-Russian groups in the Balkan state.
Early projections gave the conservative Progressives 56 per cent of votes, followed by their current coalition partner the Socialists on 10.9 per cent.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/serbia-s-pm-aleksandar-vucic-poised-for-re-election-1.2623070

And so liberty dies, with a thunderous applause. Now the Progressives can change the Constitution at their whim. We're fucked. At least the Gates got through to Parliament seats, thanks to Kosovo Serbs. It's nice, but it doesn't change the fact that we are fucked.

[phuckphace]

lol amateurs, if you're going to rig an election the right way you need electronic ballot machines with a script that changes the voter's candidate choices. plausible deniability, see

[Stronk Serb]

The final results are just in:
The Progressives won 131 seats and the elections
The Socialists won 25 seats and apply the regular 'fall in bed with the winner' tactic
The party I voted for, the Gates got 13 seats
The other seats are opposition seats which will give them hell in parliament.
The opposition grew stronger these elections, now we have two anti-EU parties, the Radicals and the Gates. Also the oposition thinks the percentage for the Progressives is 40%, not 49% of votes. The general suspect is false ballots from Albanians.

[Vlerchan]

Stronk Serb

What policies of Dveri (as referred to in the anglomedia) do you support.

For other people wondering: from what I've read Dveri is [1] clerical-nationalist [2] Serb-nationalists [2] Euroskeptics [3] Russophiles [4] Economic-patriots (whatever that means) and [5] Unapologetically-agrarian (http://opozicionar.com/ekonomski-patriotizam-je-spas-za-nasu-poljoprivredu/).

I'm imagining [2] to [4].

---

I'm also happy to see the Progressive's win. They seem like the best of the bunch.

[Stronk Serb]

Stronk Serb

What policies of Dveri (as referred to in the anglomedia) do you support.

For other people wondering: from what I've read Dveri is [1] clerical-nationalist [2] Serb-nationalists [2] Euroskeptics [3] Russophiles [4] Economic-patriots (whatever that means) and [5] Unapologetically-agrarian (http://opozicionar.com/ekonomski-patriotizam-je-spas-za-nasu-poljoprivredu/).

I'm imagining [2] to [4].

---

I'm also happy to see the Progressive's win. They seem like the best of the bunch.


I support them because of their "Serbia will not bend over" policies and wanting to keep the domestic market to ourselves and rely less on exports. Now about the last two sentences:
>The PM, while he was a Minister of Information in the nineties said "For every Serb you kill, we will kill a hundred Muslims!", when asked about it when he assumed power as the PM, he said it was taken out of context
>Prices are rising and wages are plumetting
>Incapable leadership
>Mass media censorship
>Was a close associate of Vojislav Šešelj, the leader of the Radicals and for 20 years represented ultranationalist policies, completely opposite of today's
>He changed one street's name to "Ratko Mladić Street" by putting a sticker over it
>Like I said, we're fucked.

Just thought you should know all the things.

[Vlerchan]

... wanting to keep the domestic market to ourselves and rely less on exports.
Is there a reason that importing is bad?

Like other than signalling an economy is uncompetitive in a certain sector - which is neither negative in itself: or going to be fixed with tariffs - what bad does importing cause.

>The PM, while he was a Minister of Information in the nineties said "For every Serb you kill, we will kill a hundred Muslims!", when asked about it when he assumed power as the PM, he said it was taken out of context
Whatever amount I disagree with Vucic's sentiments from two decades ago - those disagreements are entirely dominated by the economic and geopolitical concerns of 2016.

Prices are rising and wages are plumetting
Inflation:
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-inflation-cpi.png?s=serrbiainfnrate&v=201604182012n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231

Wages and unemployment releationship:
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/serbia/unemployment-rate

Wages and GDP growth releationship:
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/serbia/gdp

Incapable leadership
I would appreciate an expansion.

Mass media censorship
You've documented the soft-censorship in Serbia before.

So long as the Progressives deliver on their economic and geopolitical promises I don't care a huge amount about such small civil rights violations.

Was a close associate of Vojislav Šešelj, the leader of the Radicals and for 20 years represented ultranationalist policies, completely opposite of today's
Whatever amount I disagree with Vucic's sentiments from two decades ago - those disagreements are entirely dominated by the economic and geopolitical concerns of 2016.

He changed one street's name to "Ratko Mladić Street" by putting a sticker over it
I don't care about tokenistic articles of culture politics.

Just thought you should know all the things.
I was aware of them all but the last one.

In conclusion I don't care about Vucic's former allegiances or whatever non-economic domestic issues I might have an issue with in normal times. With Eastern European states these are less pressing for me than normal.

[phuckphace]

yo what's with the spiky lines on the last two charts, looks like an electrocardiogram of somebody who just snorted lines of coke

[Vlerchan]

yo what's with the spiky lines on the last two charts, looks like an electrocardiogram of somebody who just snorted lines of coke
GDP and Unemployment before - during - and after a recession.

Basically the equivalent to spiking out on coke.

[Stronk Serb]

Is there a reason that importing is bad?

Like other than signalling an economy is uncompetitive in a certain sector - which is neither negative in itself: or going to be fixed with tariffs - what bad does importing cause.


Whatever amount I disagree with Vucic's sentiments from two decades ago - those disagreements are entirely dominated by the economic and geopolitical concerns of 2016.


Inflation:
image (http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-inflation-cpi.png?s=serrbiainfnrate&v=201604182012n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231)

Wages and unemployment releationship:
image (http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/serbia/unemployment-rate)

Wages and GDP growth releationship:
image (http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/serbia/gdp)


I would appreciate an expansion.


You've documented the soft-censorship in Serbia before.

So long as the Progressives deliver on their economic and geopolitical promises I don't care a huge amount about such small civil rights violations.


Whatever amount I disagree with Vucic's sentiments from two decades ago - those disagreements are entirely dominated by the economic and geopolitical concerns of 2016.


I don't care about tokenistic articles of culture politics.


I was aware of them all but the last one.

In conclusion I don't care about Vucic's former allegiances or whatever non-economic domestic issues I might have an issue with in normal times. With Eastern European states these are less pressing for me than normal.

Importing is bad in our case because it causes unfair competition with foreign conglomerates owning the market. The US had tarrifs until it became the world's leading economy. They aren't bad if used correctly.

Economic and Geopolitical concerns:
His government is paying investors to invest small amounts in Serbia. We'd be better of using that money to improve local production efficiency. Also working in an investor enterprise in Serbia is modern slavery. You can kiss workers' rigts goodbye.

If you look at the increases in the average wage, you will see that most if not all of our neighbours had both a larger percentage increase and larger increase money-wise.

Incapable leadership:
Placing unqualified and simply uneducated people in public offices and administration. Hiring in these areas became based on party allegiance, not skill and merit. While my mother has to work 10-12 hours in a private company, an employee of the Finance Ministry works 6-8 hours a day for the same money plus for every overtime he get's compensated. Worker rights are unequal.

The Republic Election Comission openly sided with Vucic, openly breaking political neutrality. I wouldn't call these elections fair. Also if Vucic was doing so good, why did the number of MPs he has drop and why did 5 opposition parties enter? There were also open bribery cases for voting for his party. I first hand saw them distrubuting food for votes, my friend also told me someone offered him money to vote for SNS.

Also about economic promises, they never delivered since 2012. They said no taxes would not be increased, the opposite happened. They said public pensions would not be lowered, the opposite happened, he said his policies would not increase the price of basic goods like food, they did. He said we will get more investitions, the amount of money shrinked three times.

[Porpoise101]

There were also open bribery cases for voting for his party. I first hand saw them distrubuting food for votes, my friend also told me someone offered him money to vote for SNS.
That's called 'campaign financing'.

I kid, but this seems to be an issue. If there are widespread cases like this, then the first step is to find the financier of the operation and move from there.

[Vlerchan]

Importing is bad in our case because it causes unfair competition with foreign conglomerates owning the market.
No the problem is that the competition is fair and the less efficient Serbian industries will go under. This will free up previously unavailable capital and allow it to be invested in industries that are productive.

It can get a bit more complicated but I would prefer to deal with concerns as you raise them as opposed to setting out an exhaustive guide here.

The US had tarrifs until it became the world's leading economy.
Literally tells us nothing about the US's economy in the 1800s. How do you know that these tariff's caused the US to become the world's leading economy?

---

Spoiler: You don't. There's no counter-factual here to even begin to observe.

They aren't bad if used correctly.
This might come as a surprise but I do believe there's a correct place for tariffs.

But protecting special interests isn't one of them. It's awful for everyone else.

His government is paying investors to invest small amounts in Serbia.
I would prefer a link detailing the entire plan. Thank you.

We'd be better of using that money to improve local production efficiency.
You'll need to expand here too. Thank you.

Also working in an investor enterprise in Serbia is modern slavery. You can kiss workers' rigts goodbye.
But the US had no worker's rights and it became the world's leading economy...?

In greater seriousness, it's better to have a reduction in worker's rights in the present and allow economic development to take hold, and then restore them at a later date where median utility over the long-run will be maximised. That's about a GDP per capita of 20,000.

If you look at the increases in the average wage, you will see that most if not all of our neighbours had both a larger percentage increase and larger increase money-wise.
Ok. So it's not plummeting. I guess we can check Serbia's neighbours.

Serbia and Croatia
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/croatia-wages.png?s=croatiawag&v=201604262109n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/serbia/wages

Serbia and B&H
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/bosnia-and-herzegovina/wages

Serbia and Albania
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/albania/wages

Serbia and Macedonia
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/macedonia/wages

Serbia and Bulgaria
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/bulgaria/wages

Serbia and Romania
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/romania/wages

Serbia and Hungary
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/serbia-wages.png?s=serbiawag&v=201604041808n&d1=20060101&d2=20161231&url2=/hungary/wages

The immediate impression impression from those graphs is going to be misleading - because it tries to fit them even-like - so I'll summarise.
Serbian wages have grown at a rate of 142% the last decade
Croatian wages have grown at a rate 22% in the last decade.
B&H wages have grown at a rate 44.5% in the last decade.
Albanian wages have grown at a rate of 83.3% in the last decade.
Macedonian wages have grown at a rate of 83% in the last decade.
Bulgarian wages have grown at a rate of 200% in the last decade.
Romanian wages have grown at a rate of 126% in the last decade.
From the smallest point on the graph - Hungarian wages have grown at a rate of 132.5%. From the point preceding whatever productivity shock caused the collapse - Hungarian wages have grown at a rate of 55%
Comparatively speaking, Serbian wages have performed quite well.

Placing unqualified and simply uneducated people in public offices and administration. Hiring in these areas became based on party allegiance, not skill and merit. While my mother has to work 10-12 hours in a private company, an employee of the Finance Ministry works 6-8 hours a day for the same money plus for every overtime he get's compensated. Worker rights are unequal.
This seems to be a massive issue across most industrialised democracies. I can agree that it's continuance under Vucic is despicable. On the bright-side though he intends to scrap - is it? - 100 state-owned firms. That should limit the politicisation of economic activity to some extent.

I also agree that there's massive rents to be earned in the public sector. That's an issue of political culture nonetheless.

Also if Vucic was doing so good, why did the number of MPs he has drop and why did 5 opposition parties enter?
Citizens tend to be blinded by their short-run interests: there's a significant bias towards short-run welfare.

Furthermore there's no reason to presume that the electorate is correct.

"Demokratie ist die Diktatur der Dummen" after all.

There were also open bribery cases for voting for his party. I first hand saw them distrubuting food for votes, my friend also told me someone offered him money to vote for SNS.
Is there a manner in which completion of the voters side of the bribe can be validated?

Nonetheless - I'll wait for the Freedom House or another NGO's report before I jump to conclusions about the alleged unfairness of the election.

---

It also doesn't bother me too much that he's broken his last terms promises If he breaks the ones he's made heading into this term international finance will be sure to sink his country.

Of course as soon as his function here is complete I'll probably start getting behind more honest politicians.

[phuckphace]

GDP and Unemployment before - during - and after a recession.

Basically the equivalent to spiking out on coke.

lol. the timeframe seemed too short to be recessions, but okay.

in Murica our recessions seem to be spaced out a bit more and go on for longer, hence not as spiky-looking.

[Vlerchan]

lol. the timeframe seemed too short to be recessions, but okay.

in Murica our recessions seem to be spaced out a bit more and go on for longer, hence not as spiky-looking.
The technical definition of a recession is two quarters of negative growth in a row. If we want to remain technical the definition of a depression is four quarters of negative growth.

I get what's being said though. You happen to just live in a peculiar time. From about 1985 to 2005 central banks were remarkably proficient in managing aggregate demand - let's just call this the force shunting cash around economies - and could smooth out fluctuations in the broader macro-economy. There were two recessions between 1985 and 2005 (1990 - 1991 and 2001) but both were well contained.

Obviously this changed with the most recent downturn. Our financial systems imploded* and compounded a secular downturn in the long-run natural rate of interest** it was difficult for monetary policy to gain traction - thus unconventional policies like QE. The fiscal stimulus probably wasn't - in itself - large enough: though we can be quite certain it helped.

Contrast the last decade to 1948 - 1958 where there was three recessions. Then there was another one in 1960. The period preceding the Great Depression had even more frequent recessions.

---

* This is what made it so bad. It's always more difficult to rebuild when you're lacking financial intermediaries.

** This is important because monetary policy becomes relatively impotent when the interest rate is at zero.

[That's the Spirit]

It's been a while OP, I just came on here to check the name of the restaurant you left on my 'wall' a while ago and I came across this thread.

Might have heard/seen it but you might like it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkSzmPnzF-o

http://lyricstranslate.com/en/sistem-te-laze-system-lying-you.html

English translation.

[Stronk Serb]

This is just in:

The Republic Election Comission:

"Due to discrepancies in the ledgers on some voting places, we were forced to annul 90 voting places and their votes."

This is borderline illegal. If there are any discrepancies, the elections must be repeated. Also they counted the last two percent of the votes for four days, just enough to drop one opposition party under the threshold. It all smelled like rigged elections from the start.

I will reply to ya'll when I have the time. Now I have some personal matters to attend to.

[Vlerchan]

The Republic Election Comission:

"Due to discrepancies in the ledgers on some voting places, we were forced to annul 90 voting places and their votes."
Link? (I don't mind if it's in Serbian).

---

I've also begun observing Serbian elections with an almost-morbid interest.

The complete lack of trust between the parties is curious (Radicals now accusing Dveri of being American-puppets, for instance).

[Stronk Serb]

Vlerchan

Here it is, I've done the calculations and it takes roughly 40 votes for Dveri to get past the threshold. I hope they get past so that we can have a stronger opposition. The Radicals feel threatened by Dveri because they are new and well, have done nothing wrong because they never held public office.

http://www.blic.rs/izbori-2016/incident-u-rik-u-obradovic-vikao-s-galerije-u-koskanju-jedna-zena-primljena-na/xef43t1

Also the RIK lied when they said only the Progressives reported valid discrepancies during the election process. There was a man who came to the voting place with an already circled ballot, which is illegal since you get the papers on-site. There were also places with less papers than needed and other discrepancies. I can give you a link on that too.