View Full Version : I'm voting for Trump.
James Dean
February 24th, 2016, 03:01 AM
......
Hyper
February 24th, 2016, 05:05 AM
So I mean has Trump finally moved on from slogans of making your country great again and building the great wall of America on to how or what he will do to make your country great again?
jw. Hillary is a career politician, pretty sure she's changed her stance on every subject lol...
Vlerchan
February 24th, 2016, 05:14 AM
How Asian companies outsource here, and American companies migrate overseas.
The process is a net benefit to people in the U.S.
The Mexico border is full of crime from terrorism, human trafficking, drug wars etc.
Obama has taken considerable steps to stem the flow of migrants across the border and at the moment there is a net outflow of migrants. Trump's plan is a logistical and economic nightmare.
Furthermore the best means of fighting drug crime is curtailing the demand-side as the cartels are monopsonies and farmers absorb their losses from supply-side curtailment.
Tell me more about the terrorism that has crossed the Mexican border though.
Also Obama's free handouts which put our country in debt.
No it didn't. Obama has in fact greatly reduced the deficit he inherited. This is so far off the mark it's concerning.
Trump's plan would double the deficit in a decade.
---
I won't disagree that Trump doesn't sugar-coat things. I'll add though that the president tends to have the smallest impact on domestic affairs.
dxcxdzv
February 24th, 2016, 05:18 AM
Yeah Republicans have always been honest, they never sweep things under the rug.
*cough cough* iran-Contra *cough cough* Watergate
But you're right. Good agenda. A wall... Shutting down Internet... Puking on the "big companies"... Or "nuke North Korea"...
http://www.ontheissues.org/Donald_Trump.htm
Judean Zealot
February 24th, 2016, 06:22 AM
Idk, I'm consistently shocked at how so many otherwise intelligent people are willing to back such a vulgar and vacuous candidate for President. Looks like the American right of center is about to go pear shaped.
Vlerchan
February 24th, 2016, 06:37 AM
Idk, I'm consistently shocked at how so many otherwise intelligent people are willing to back such a vulgar and vacuous candidate for President.
He won the postgraduate vote in Nevada which surprised me.
I have a feeling it is more to do with his opposition though. His competitors are all prime examples of the sliminess of establishment politics. He's running on anger.
phuckphace
February 24th, 2016, 07:09 AM
I for one cannot wait for the God-Emperor vs. Shillary final boss fight
SCENE: The Great Debate
HILLARY: WE'RE GOING TO W...GOING TO...
HILLARY erupts in a sickening fit of coughing.
TRUMP looks on smugly.
HILLARY: THIS IS NOT THE (coughs) TIME FOR ANGER, THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO SPREAD LIES, THIS IS OUR CHANCE TO FIX AMERICA. DONALD TRUMP HAS NO PLAN, NO ANSWERS.
TRUMP glances smugly at the audience.
TRUMP: Actually I've got quite a few answers, Mrs. Clinton, quite a few yes. I've got more answers than I've got money, and I've gotta lotta money. But (pause) I have just one question.
HILLARY: AND WHAT WOULD THAT BE? (coughs)
TRUMP: http://i.imgur.com/z5XsYNh.png VINCE FOSTER.
StoppingTom
February 24th, 2016, 07:20 AM
I for one cannot wait for the God-Emperor vs. Shillary final boss fight
SCENE: The Great Debate
HILLARY: WE'RE GOING TO W...GOING TO...
HILLARY erupts in a sickening fit of coughing.
TRUMP looks on smugly.
HILLARY: THIS IS NOT THE (coughs) TIME FOR ANGER, THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO SPREAD LIES, THIS IS OUR CHANCE TO FIX AMERICA. DONALD TRUMP HAS NO PLAN, NO ANSWERS.
TRUMP glances smugly at the audience.
TRUMP: Actually I've got quite a few answers, Mrs. Clinton, quite a few yes. I've got more answers than I've got money, and I've gotta lotta money. But (pause) I have just one question.
HILLARY: AND WHAT WOULD THAT BE? (coughs)
TRUMP: image (http://i.imgur.com/z5XsYNh.png) VINCE FOSTER.
[SHILLARY collapses, hacking up blood.]
[The TRUMP JUGEND begins to cheer]
SHILLARY: You.. You FOOL. This isn't even my FINAL form. HYAAAAAAA
[Camera cuts to MARTIN O'MALLEY]
O'MALLEY: SHE'S GOING SUPER SAIYAN
[Enter BERNIE SANDERS, SUPER SAIYAN]
TRUMP: What is this.. HERESY?
SANDERS: I've got more proletariats than you have money, capitalist pig-dog.
[TIGHT ZOOM ON SANDERS]
SANDERS: AND YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF MONEY.
TRUMP: http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax/files/6c/6c93ac56-0b69-4110-a2b9-d029e14132f6.jpg
Reghan
February 24th, 2016, 11:39 AM
Bernie all the wayyyy!
Exocet
February 24th, 2016, 05:03 PM
Well Trump is cool and seems to be an honest guy. I'd vote for him.
DriveAlive
February 24th, 2016, 05:51 PM
All we can hope for now is that he picks Kasich as his VP
Porpoise101
February 24th, 2016, 06:24 PM
All we can hope for now is that he picks Kasich as his VP
Dream on. No moderate will step near that abomination in order to preserve his reputation. I don't get how your guys don't see how association with Trump is a negative thing, especially for your career.
Moriya
February 24th, 2016, 06:31 PM
If Trump gets elected the only thing I'm hoping for is that he ends up being impeached.
phuckphace
February 25th, 2016, 01:37 PM
Dream on. No moderate will step near that abomination in order to preserve his reputation. I don't get how your guys don't see how association with Trump is a negative thing, especially for your career.
kek m8 you need some perspective
millennials live in a cloistered mindspace wherein they imagine their opinions to be representative of the majority - they're really not. see: every VT poll ever where Bernie Sanders leads by a big margin. meanwhile in real life Trump's support continues to grow and it's surprisingly (to you guys) pretty broad.
Porpoise101
February 25th, 2016, 01:48 PM
kek m8 you need some perspective
millennials live in a cloistered mindspace wherein they imagine their opinions to be representative of the majority - they're really not. see: every VT poll ever where Bernie Sanders leads by a big margin. meanwhile in real life Trump's support continues to grow and it's surprisingly (to you guys) pretty broad.
At most he gets 30% of the Republicans; many of whom were independents or apathetic toward voting until he came onstage. If Republicans consist of about half of the nation, then he may have 20% support maximum. So no, his reach is not that broad.
Also, it's been shown time and time again that millennials know how to make brands and people look bad. From Miss America to Monsanto, millennials made their reputation trash unless it changed.
jayce_xt
February 26th, 2016, 09:52 AM
TL;DR - Trump's all bark and no bite. If you want a strong leader, look elsewhere. I normally don't care all that much about politics, but this fool's actually stupid / selfish enough to screw us all.
Although phuckphace's support for the neo-Hitler isn't all that surprising, I find it rather shocking that there's a growing trend of support for a candidate that embraces Fascist state terrorism ("terrorism" being used in the original French definition of the word).
I have no problem with hating the Tumblr-inspired culture of faux-political correctness (most of Tumblr are just overzealous child-minds who don't bother to put an ounce of effort into learning about the ideas or causes they claim to be getting fired up about), but there's a difference between supporting "blunt honesty" and supporting the guy who is literally resembling the modern-day (albeit less intelligent) equivalent of Hitler. Seriously. Read some history articles (because I know even a single book for most people here falls under the TL;DR category) on "Hitler gains power in Germany". Read the shit Hitler spouted. Then go back and re-read / listen to the shit that Trump's telling everyone. If you're really interested, compare his plans for tax reform with the data that's actually relevant. He plans to cut taxes for everybody--especially the rich--with the idea that "they'll have more incentive to spend more on job growth" (failed trickle-down economics, anyone?).
Virtually all data on the matter, however, shows that there's no such correlation. For whatever reason, business administrators and executives prefer making more money for themselves than doing the socially responsible thing and making more jobs for other people. On this front alone, Trump will be doing nothing but bringing us deeper into debt. By the way, in case you're not familiar with his track record on this front, look at the number of bankruptcies he's filed. Pretty abysmal.
EDIT: Also, what's with all this bs about "millennials" being supposedly a bad generation? Last I checked, every generation had their greats and their sucks. Faulty generalization fallacy much? But then again, I guess my own generation's notorious for that, so I shouldn't really complain. Or am I making a hasty generalization, myself? Ahahaha, the madness!!!
DriveAlive
February 26th, 2016, 11:58 AM
TL;DR - Trump's all bark and no bite. If you want a strong leader, look elsewhere. I normally don't care all that much about politics, but this fool's actually stupid / selfish enough to screw us all.
Although phuckphace's support for the neo-Hitler isn't all that surprising, I find it rather shocking that there's a growing trend of support for a candidate that embraces Fascist state terrorism ("terrorism" being used in the original French definition of the word).
I have no problem with hating the Tumblr-inspired culture of faux-political correctness (most of Tumblr are just overzealous child-minds who don't bother to put an ounce of effort into learning about the ideas or causes they claim to be getting fired up about), but there's a difference between supporting "blunt honesty" and supporting the guy who is literally resembling the modern-day (albeit less intelligent) equivalent of Hitler. Seriously. Read some history articles (because I know even a single book for most people here falls under the TL;DR category) on "Hitler gains power in Germany". Read the shit Hitler spouted. Then go back and re-read / listen to the shit that Trump's telling everyone. If you're really interested, compare his plans for tax reform with the data that's actually relevant. He plans to cut taxes for everybody--especially the rich--with the idea that "they'll have more incentive to spend more on job growth" (failed trickle-down economics, anyone?).
Virtually all data on the matter, however, shows that there's no such correlation. For whatever reason, business administrators and executives prefer making more money for themselves than doing the socially responsible thing and making more jobs for other people. On this front alone, Trump will be doing nothing but bringing us deeper into debt. By the way, in case you're not familiar with his track record on this front, look at the number of bankruptcies he's filed. Pretty abysmal.
EDIT: Also, what's with all this bs about "millennials" being supposedly a bad generation? Last I checked, every generation had their greats and their sucks. Faulty generalization fallacy much? But then again, I guess my own generation's notorious for that, so I shouldn't really complain. Or am I making a hasty generalization, myself? Ahahaha, the madness!!!
I am not sure where you get the Hitler comparisons from...whatever.
There is a uniquely American phenomenon of billionaires working for some perceived social injustice. The Gates' and the Zuckerburgs' have used their power and influence to help others. Now, Trump is an example of a billionaire taking a conservative stance on problems in America. He could just continue making money at his business, but instead he chooses to do something about it.
As a final note, bankruptcy is a very effective and common business practice when applied properly. Trump is the master of the pivot. When a business pursuit is not productive, he pivots and focuses his efforts on something that will be productive. Bankruptcy is a very common way for businesses to refocus their assets.
West Coast Sheriff
February 26th, 2016, 12:05 PM
Did you guys not see how Rubio and Cruz attacked him last night? His illegitimacy is REALLY starting to show. I think Super Tuesday will be the turning point in the race for DT.
Porpoise101
February 26th, 2016, 12:06 PM
For whatever reason, business administrators and executives prefer making more money for themselves than doing the socially responsible thing and making more jobs for other people.
I do think money hording is a growing trend. Maybe it's just me, but at least in the gilded age the super rich seemed more charitable. I will give a nod to the Gates family. Those guys are actually saving humanity.
Vlerchan
February 26th, 2016, 02:01 PM
But if Rubio's tax plan is "puppies and rainbows," then Donald Trump's may be best described as "unicorns and time portals." It's so far beyond the plausible that science fiction, rather than children's literature, feels like the right genre for capturing its essence.
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/25/11110526/gop-tax-plans
Just want to emphasise the fiscal-nuttiness again. It's also clear across all the main proposals.
Did you guys not see how Rubio and Cruz attacked him last night? His illegitimacy is REALLY starting to show. I think Super Tuesday will be the turning point in the race for DT.
I'm sceptical for a number of reasons. In no particular order.
Obvious last-gasp effort from Rubio is obvious. He pulled some good punches but it's too simple to pass it off as political exigence.
Trump's responses were designed to appeal to his base - emphasise there [i]politicalness[/]. I figure that went quite well and so I'm sceptical he'll be left to scathed to them.
Trump wasn't really touched on a single issue that his base support him for. He - again - was the one on top as far as immigration and trade was concerned.
Trump tends to dominate the post-debate. He jumped straight on Rubio as soon as it closed - emphasising his weakness.
I'm not going to start calling the impact until post-debate polls are published.
Porpoise101
February 26th, 2016, 02:14 PM
Just want to emphasise the fiscal-nuttiness again. It's also clear across all the main proposals.
One thing I don't get is why the GOP consistently maintains it's need to fund the military so much... I don't get it.
Vlerchan
February 26th, 2016, 02:41 PM
One thing I don't get is why the GOP consistently maintains it's need to fund the military so much... I don't get it.
I imagine it's so the U.S. are capable of projecting itself on 2 - 3 fronts (Baltic Region - Central Asia - Asia-Pacific) at once if the needs arise.
Least I've only ever imagined the reason Republicans demand such amounts is so it can secure itself against the entire world at the same time.
Porpoise101
February 26th, 2016, 02:46 PM
I imagine it's so the U.S. are capable of projecting itself on 2 - 3 fronts at once if the needs arise. Least I've only ever imagined the reason Republicans demand such amounts is so it can secure itself against the entire world at the same time.
I think that we need to reallocate some of that money. Lots of people are talking about guns, planes, and ships, but what about cyberwarfare? We are severely lacking as a nation and I'm surprised that it hasn't been mentioned in the election cycle. Last year, millions of government employees had their information hacked, probably by China. How does it not concern these people that they could do worse to us and that we are defenseless even with our weaponry?
Vlerchan
February 26th, 2016, 02:51 PM
We are severely lacking as a nation and I'm surprised that it hasn't been mentioned in the election cycle.
The sad truth seems to be that Republicans are too busy posturing to really spend too much time discussing actual policy. Perhaps when the nominations are finished and Trump needs to start chasing moderates it'll become less of a farce.
Democrats tend to avoid using the terms "defence" and "expenditure" in the same sentence I guess.
---
Edit:
Trump tends to dominate the post-debate.
Donald Trump and Chris Christie today held a joint press conference, ostensibly to announce Christie’s endorsement, but effectively to roast the hell out of Marco Rubio.
http://gawker.com/here-are-all-the-savage-burns-from-donald-trump-and-chr-1761521526
It's shaping up to be an entertaining weekend.
Trump-Christie?
Porpoise101
February 26th, 2016, 07:18 PM
Trump-Christie?
The politicos are saying attorney general is more likely. But l doubt he will even get into office.
Judean Zealot
February 27th, 2016, 07:10 AM
Rubio keeps on the heat, starting to fight fire with fire. It may be too little too late, but all Trumplets should be shown this:
Tiby6M94ONA
phuckphace
mahony0509
February 27th, 2016, 07:18 AM
I'm not from the US, but I can't understand why anyone would even attempt to support this man. If it was any other country he'd be ignored. Realise that if you elect this guy, he's going to have your nuclear codes on the tip of his finger. I bet Putin is laughing as he watches this presidential race.
Vlerchan
February 27th, 2016, 08:39 AM
Rubio keeps on the heat, starting to fight fire with fire.
Is the reduction of the debate to the standard Trump set really a good sign though?
It paints a pretty poor picture of the party's future regardless of who comes out on top.
Judean Zealot
February 27th, 2016, 08:42 AM
Is the reduction of the debate to the standard Trump set really a good sign though?
It paints a pretty poor picture of the party's future regardless of who comes out on top.
It's not ideal, but it's the only way the moderates can break from the whackjobs from a position of power.
Fact is, this is long overdue. I've been waiting for this to happen for a long time.
Jeb tried to maintain a higher level of discourse, and look where that got him. If your electorate is comprised 40% of illiterate and uninformed voters, you can't discuss policy. And if idealistic voters think that this demagogue is going to instate a Reich v4.0, then they have to be shown what a selfish, lying prick he is. At this point my loathing for Trump has grown visceral, even surpassing the disgust I feel with Netanyahu (and trust me, that's a high bar).
Vlerchan
February 27th, 2016, 09:39 AM
If your electorate is comprised 40% of illiterate and uninformed voters, you can't discuss policy.
I have a more optimistic view of the Republican base. I implied it earlier but I think - rather - Trump just ticks all the policy boxes his supporters want him too. He gets that message across and then engages in obstructionism to keep that message the centre of the campaign. The likes of Rubio feed this when it turns into a pissing competition as-is at the moment.
His base also isn't uninformed or illiterate - His base is white people that have seen their whiteness turned into almost a swear word and can expect a depreciated standard of living vis-a-vis their middle class parents that might have had the same skills. Furthermore "[w]hites, Republicans and especially members of the Tea Party say less often than average that they are better off than their parents and that their own children will top them" (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/05/12/what-will-become-of-americas-kids/) is perhaps the most important indicator. This is a base of people that are falling behind their parents and see their children on the same track. It's more concentrated amongst the less-educated though Trump's vote seems to capture college-educated quite well too (http://www.vox.com/2016/2/21/11081886/trump-south-carolina-demographics). That's not surprising because technological improvement has hallowed out the former middle class.
Democrats might discuss redistribution but lots of it feel that it will be concentrated amongst the immigrants and the other outies.
You can measure their pessimism in polls that ask about their expectations for their lives—and for those of their children. On both counts, whites without a college degree express the bleakest view. You can see the effects of their despair in the new statistics describing horrifying rates of suicide and substance-abuse fatality among this same group, in middle age.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/
That's the reason phuckphace supporting Trump makes perfect sense and is (probably) based on more than his open and obvious Hitlerism. Establishment liberals can't be expected to commit to much that doesn't hold a disproportionate impact on outies - and hurt the long-run social capital and political make-up that his long-run position is dependent on - and establishment Republicans to really do anything.
---
Of course large proportions of the Trump base doesn't understand electoral issues but neither does large proportions of the Electoral base in general. Looking at polls of even those inside Congress you see massive disparities between them and mainstream economics.
When it comes to that you just gotta pray that the president has good advisor's regardless of who's in office.
Judean Zealot
February 27th, 2016, 11:20 AM
As an addendum, I would add that the fact that Trump has significant support amongst the college educated is not an indication of his legitimacy as a presidential candidate - it is a sign that the colleges are broken.
Vlerchan
February 27th, 2016, 01:53 PM
As an addendum, I would add that the fact that Trump has significant support amongst the college educated is not an indication of his legitimacy as a presidential candidate - it is a sign that the colleges are broken.
I'll add though - if it makes a difference - that I see college attendance as having less added value here as much a signal for a certain set of characteristics (class in particular).
northy
February 27th, 2016, 02:41 PM
Oh no, not more trump supporters. Try reading the facts, please for the sake of your country and the world. Can you not see trumps motives? He is manipulating you, he says these things because he is clever and I sincerely doubt that he will ever do what he promised.
dbfordateam
February 28th, 2016, 02:33 AM
What policy has Trump really gunned for? He has yet to talk about his policy.
phuckphace
February 28th, 2016, 09:09 AM
Vlerchan gets it, and as usual, far more impartial than I could ever hope to be.
I must admit, I'm rather disappointed with Judean Zealot's consistently negative attitude on the subject (that "fifth burger of the day" line in the other thread was pretty low-effort and something I'd expect from the Tumblr crew, not VT's foremost philosopher.) bro I know you're smart enough to realize that Trump's popularity is far more nuanced than him getting one over on a pack of wild-eyed MartKart jockeys.
nobody seriously believes that Drumpf will roll out Reich 4.0 or anything like it, except for maybe a small handful of White Nationalists, but Trump has already disavowed David Dook's support as any intelligent person would. the Hitlerism is just banter because it's funny. when Trumplets hear "Make America Great Again" we imagine something closer to the 1950s or even the 1980s, the nation we had and lost. the nation which our grandparents can't stop talking about how up to their eyeballs in jobs and not getting outbred by Mexicans they were.
I find it laughable this implication that we'd totally be having a ~*serious policy discussion*~ were it not for Drumpf showing up and ruining everything. yes, I sure can see Jeb and Rubio carefully laying out which parts of Plato's Republic they plan to base their administrations on :lol3: it's more like we'd have Jeb giving us a sanctimonious lecture on the unconventional conservatism of a Hispanic supermajority. his policy proposals (and lack of a spine) are the exact reason the electorate rejected him in favor of Drumpf. he might as well have gone to Israel and tried to run on a platform of being super nice to the Palestinians and maybe letting in a few hundred thousand of them and giving them voting rights too, what could possibly go wrong?
as Vlerchan alluded to, the identity politics at the forefront is another angle - we've grown weary of watching the elites give amnesty and jobs to foreigners who - unlike us - are permitted to display unapologetic ethnic pride and solidarity, while we on the other hand can't go extinct fast enough. particularly galling is the fact that a lot of this rhetoric flows from alleged "conservatives" like Jeb.
Drumpf's campaign has given me a glimmer of hope for the future, which is to say, hope for a realignment a.k.a. a YUGE and long overdue blowing-the-fuck-out of the Grand Old Party (more like the Rio Grande Party amirite)
kylem1229
February 28th, 2016, 09:11 AM
I still have no clue who im going to vote for yet. Each candidate has their ups and downs. One thing about Trump, is that hes honest. He doesnt care what others think of him, and he doesnt let anyone get to him. Is he going to be a good president? Maybe, Maybe not.
Porpoise101
February 28th, 2016, 12:17 PM
as we've grown weary of watching the elites give ... jobs to foreigners
Educated people get the jobs nowadays. If the imported workers aren't educated, then it's the politicians who wrote those labor rules a long time ago who have the blame. Or it's the corporations' fault for giving them the promise of the jobs. They are holding our politicians hostage too, so this can't be fixed. So in fact, I believe that for once, it isn't the fault of the government elite in this case.
phuckphace
February 28th, 2016, 12:22 PM
That's because they are educated and have a purpose in the system. Why should uneducated hicks just 'get' good jobs? And if they are importing low skill workers than its the corporation's fault, or even maybe the loophole-ridden labor rules written long ago. If you are talking about elites in this sense I understand... otherwise no.
incoherent post, revise and resubmit
Porpoise101
February 28th, 2016, 12:55 PM
incoherent post, revise and resubmit
Sorry I cannot English. I fix it for u.
Judean Zealot
February 28th, 2016, 02:35 PM
phuckphace
My deep reaction against Trump stems from the fact that I feel that his candidacy and success will mark the beginning of the end of the American Republic. I understand what you and others find so appealing about his 'fuck them all' message, even though I myself am a Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush type of person. Nevertheless, you have to open your eyes and see him for what he is: a brazen liar who looks after nothing and no one but himself. This is abundantly clear from his business record, and for God's sake, his career as a reality TV star. I will repeat again, a man without virtue will stab you right in the back. Donald Trump cares about nothing other than Donald Trump. He has also shown himself incapable of articulating coherent policy, instead he just spews stream of consciousness insults and boasts.
Donald Trump is a man in whom I find every character trait I despise, in double plus measure. Arrogance, deceit, bluster, cruelty, and more, all wrapped up in one man with bad hair. The thought that such a man might get the nomination of a once respectable and viable political party saddens and disturbs me greatly. As a matter of fact, it's confirmed my personal opinion that Republicanism as is currently practiced is untenable, a position I have been desperately hoping to find a way around, but apparently now I need to settle with.
I also admit that my mischaracterisation of Trump voters as illiterate, obese hicks was innacurate and uncalled for, and as such I apologise. This business just really gets my goat.
Edit: this (https://www.yahoo.com/politics/trump-kkk-cnn-tapper-154053871.html)doesn't help my impression of the man either.
Vlerchan
February 28th, 2016, 06:27 PM
Effort-post incoming.
Educated people get the jobs nowadays.
I just want to expand on this point and what I feel is the big issue in the U.S. at the moment. There's been two major trends since the onset of the 1980s.
The first is capital-biased technological change where mid-level cognitive tasks were retired to computers. This was first a compliment to higher-skill labourers and increased both numbers employed in this sector and their wages (remunerations). The second was an increased demand for non wage-elastic low-skill labour. By-and-large service sector jobs catering a personalised and individual level. To facilitate understanding the upper-middle acquired enough to hire the lower-middle to do things like cut their hair and dryclean their clothes.
The second - smaller impact - was international trade and globalisation. This is a net benefit but as I've mentioned before it doesn't tend to be too good for the non-college educated. It suppresses their wages. The likelihood is that it compounded the creation of the upper-middle class and personal-catering economy. Onshoring featured at a higher rate than onshoring: complimented their wages and thus increased demand for lower-middle class people to iron their clothes and stuff.
Immigration is a handy scapegoat because brown people.
The hope is that in the medium-run the losers can educate themselves and become part of the new middle class. You can see this in Ireland - which I'll add has exports as a proportion of GDP at a rate five times higher than the U.S. too. In large our new middle class is involved in pharmaceutical production and software and hardware development and other export-orientated production. This is because in Ireland there's good access to education and people could take part in these opportunities. It also occurred in places like Switzerland and Denmark and Holland.
In the U.S. this is not the case. In fact there's a shortage of certain bands of STEM workers and firms need to import immigrants to help there. Instead of dealing with this the U.S. has spent it's time chasing wild geese or whatever that metaphor is: cutting taxation to no greater avail for long-run upskilling and the likes. Let's not even consider the parish-pump and log-rolling and infighting and polarisation that compound the lack of actual direction.
Trump's policies are problematic because if the core is implemented - a curtailment of international trade and immigration - the best that might occur is the suppression of middle-middle and upper-middle class incomes. It won't help his core and for sure won't result in a return the greatness of the 1980s or the 1950s. Those times were built on a different intersections of macroeconomic and demographic and technological affairs.
I understand what you and others find so appealing about his 'fuck them all' message, even though I myself am a Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush type of person.
I don't agree that the Trump base are just committed to anti-establishment politics - or a 'fuck them all' vote. It is a direction in itself and based on greater priors than an opposition to the established class.
I realise that there's issues with the highly-superficial nature of the messenger but we're seeing the tapping of a significant minority within the conservative vote that whilst was previously silent are probably the same sort behind Perot '92.
[...] viable political party [...]
I'm sceptical it will be soon. This alone will cause major divisions. That it was a coalition that was built on an uneasy alliance between big-business, evangelicals, and the patriotic working class, always made is susceptible to tearing apart.
But bigger is the failure to find a suitable approach to demographic change in the U.S. means that Texas will likely be a blue state inside a decade - if current projections remain accurate - and thus the Republicans will remain broadly unelectable without internal major reform.
Porpoise101
February 28th, 2016, 07:18 PM
Texas will likely be a blue state inside a decade
If the GOP doesn't change, yes. But it gets more complicated when minorities like Hispanics, Arabs, and Indians start assimilating. These are more religious and conservative people, and they may be what drives a reformed GOP. Also, you underestimate the power of a dominant culture. The South will see the most population growth and it is unclear how much these new people will change, and be changed, by the South.
Vlerchan
February 28th, 2016, 07:49 PM
But it gets more complicated when minorities like Hispanics, Arabs, and Indians start assimilating.
Indians are a negligible component of the population - ~1% - and so are arabs - which are pretty strikingly Democrat (and Christian).
Hispanic's immigrant identities are consistently renewed by the introduction of new Hispanic immigrants. Nonetheless I'm sceptical their integration wouldn't benefit liberals. I agree that Hispanics tend to be more often than not social conservatives though it's worth noting that the number of unaffiliated Hispanics is on the rise - millennials are the largest proportion of that population - and between 2010 and 2013 there was a >100% growth in the number of millennial Hispanics declaring unaffiliated (http://www.pewforum.org/2014/05/07/the-shifting-religious-identity-of-latinos-in-the-united-states/).
Porpoise101
February 28th, 2016, 08:25 PM
Indians are a negligible component of the population - ~1% - and so are arabs - which are pretty strikingly Democrat (and Christian).
That is true that they are small. I guess I was trying to say that Asians who aren't from East Asia tend to be religious and Asians in general tend to be wealthy. There are exceptions like Filipinos who are less wealthy, but they are exceptions. But I think wealth protection and religiousness would breed conservatism.
I also am fairly confident that Asian immigration is very large compared to all other sources.
Here is a source:http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/28/us/pew-study-immigration-asians-hispanics/
Vlerchan
February 28th, 2016, 08:59 PM
I also am fairly confident that Asian immigration is very large compared to all other sources.
Here is a source:http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/28/us/pew-study-immigration-asians-hispanics/
I had a quick look at the methodological underpinnings of the full report. It would seem like it takes the rates as expected to emerge in 2020 and then applies it at a constant rate thereafter - adjusting for the trends over the last number of decades. It doesn't seem to account for the fact that origin economies will develop and this eliminate the need to emigrate for high skill-for-wage work or educational opportunities. Or that Hispanics will reach a similar rate of development and face the same incentives.
It also doesn't seem to account for a cut-off in origin population growth and thus a non-increasing emigration from those populations - or at least a non-constant increase.
It's an acceptable conjecture but I have an inherent scepticism towards all attempts to predict superlong-run trends. I will need to read the full paper though - that's just what I interpreted in the less-than-crystal methodological post-script.
Porpoise101
February 28th, 2016, 11:06 PM
It also doesn't seem to account for a cut-off in origin population growth and thus a non-increasing emigration from those populations - or at least a non-constant increase.
Hispanics are coming from primarily one country: Mexico. There are Central Americans coming more and more, but overall, those nations are improving too.
Currently, the major Asian countries that deliver us the immigrants I think are from the entire continent except Central Asia. Of these nations, I believe that only the Arab nations and Iran, East Asia, and India (maybe Pakistan) will be similar enough to an American standard of living. But the thing about Asia is that it's very diverse in terms of development. I think Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, and Southeast Asian nations will still have a lesser standard of living based on the big challenges they face currently.
But I think you are right, the more unknown factors and more time the less unreliable the prediction will be.
Judean Zealot
February 29th, 2016, 12:43 AM
I'm sceptical it will be soon. This alone will cause major divisions. That it was a coalition that was built on an uneasy alliance between big-business, evangelicals, and the patriotic working class, always made is susceptible to tearing apart.
I agree. Trump has devastatingly crippled right wing politics likely for decades to come. By the way, the Democratic Party is not far behind. The fact that Obama '08 was so successful and the enthusiasm of Sanders supporters implies that there is a huge shift in thinking within the Democrats, and the moderates will end up disenfranchised from their own party, like what happened with Corbyn and Labour.
'I see Barsad, and Cly, Defarge, The Vengeance, the Juryman, the Judge, long ranks of the new... who have risen on the destruction of the old, perishing by this retributive instrument, before it shall cease out of its present use...'
What I believe we will see within the next decade is at least three significant parties in Congress, with the moderates of both the Republican and Democratic parties either joining together or making two centrist parties. I imagine that the electoral college will be reformed accordingly.
Judean Zealot
February 29th, 2016, 05:00 AM
MMKFIHRpe7I
Your hero, Trumplets.
Judean Zealot
February 29th, 2016, 05:11 PM
The new Drumpf/Christie campaign slogan: 'Building walls, closing bridges'.
Uniquemind
March 1st, 2016, 01:20 PM
http://youtu.be/DnpO_RTSNmQ
Vlerchan
March 1st, 2016, 02:50 PM
Renee Free, 51, Nurse
Voted for: Donald Trump
“I think he’ll take care of the average person. I don’t like Obamacare. I think it has hurt the nation. Also an issue is all the immigrants coming in. America was founded on people coming over but if you come to the United States you should have to pledge your allegiance to us by going into the military. To me that’s the best way of showing that you’re here for the right reasons. I’m just afraid of, like, the Syrians coming in, it’s a scary time right now. I want to leave our nation stronger for our grandchildren.”
“My son owns his own business and its real hard he can’t afford insurance. People like the immigrants coming in, they have insurance, they can afford it. But someone that’s worked really hard, it’s hard for the average person to take care of their families. It was $600 a week for what he would have to have for his family - who can afford that?”
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/mar/01/super-tuesday-vote-election-2016-live-updates-campaign-trail-trump-clinton-sanders-cruz-rubio
This isn't me mining for bad testimonials. I imagine there's worse. This just happens to be the first I've come across.
The Ban Carson one contained below is similarly gag-inducing.
Judean Zealot
March 1st, 2016, 03:44 PM
Uniquemind's video.
DnpO_RTSNmQ
Uniquemind
March 1st, 2016, 09:02 PM
Renee Free, 51, Nurse
Voted for: Donald Trump
“I think he’ll take care of the average person. I don’t like Obamacare. I think it has hurt the nation. Also an issue is all the immigrants coming in. America was founded on people coming over but if you come to the United States you should have to pledge your allegiance to us by going into the military. To me that’s the best way of showing that you’re here for the right reasons. I’m just afraid of, like, the Syrians coming in, it’s a scary time right now. I want to leave our nation stronger for our grandchildren.”
“My son owns his own business and its real hard he can’t afford insurance. People like the immigrants coming in, they have insurance, they can afford it. But someone that’s worked really hard, it’s hard for the average person to take care of their families. It was $600 a week for what he would have to have for his family - who can afford that?”
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/mar/01/super-tuesday-vote-election-2016-live-updates-campaign-trail-trump-clinton-sanders-cruz-rubio
This isn't me mining for bad testimonials. I imagine there's worse. This just happens to be the first I've come across.
The Ban Carson one contained below is similarly gag-inducing.
And to respond to that seriously, that lady forgot about the Tragedy of Fort Hood, a (2-3 years back?)...yeah get a whole bunch of maybe-loyal, people with guns in our military ranks.
Yeah....stupid-emotionally enslaved Voter alert!
phuckphace
March 1st, 2016, 10:37 PM
Texas has a history of electing actual, literal morons as governors: Ann Richards, Dubya, Rick Perry, etc. Texas is also a unique place because, unlike virtually everywhere else where immigration is a conspiracy by the upper elite, Texans themselves revel in their own demographic displacement. they've singlehandedly imported more Mexican serfs on purpose than probably any other state, and shrug as Chihuahua, Coahuila and Tamaulipas swallow up their state like a virus. the last Texan alive will look over the sea of dead eyed invaders and holler "HOWDY PARDNERS, Y'ALL READY FOR A TEXAS-SIZED HELLUVAGOOD TIME???" before being shot in the head and his bones left to bleach as the tumbleweeds roll by
Judean Zealot
March 1st, 2016, 11:01 PM
phuckphace
Has your state voted yet?
phuckphace
March 1st, 2016, 11:14 PM
phuckphace
Has your state voted yet?
yep. I voted absentee for Drumpf but the rest went to the Corny Canadian Cuban.
Judean Zealot
March 1st, 2016, 11:20 PM
All in all he may get hit by a brokered convention. The GOP has to play their cards right. If they do, they can deny Drumpf a majority of delegates.
Also, I just found out that the RNC requires any nominee at the convention to have won an outright majority of at least 8 states. Thus far not a single candidate has ratched up a single majority, so we'll see where that he's.
Porpoise101
March 1st, 2016, 11:33 PM
yep. I voted absentee for Drumpf but the rest went to the Corny Canadian Cuban.
Oh you are OK I guess (haha). Look here is a fellow resident: http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160302/177868847a7be2e1941db82ca2d83631.jpg
Anyways, is Oklahoma an all or nothing state or no?
Sir Suomi
March 1st, 2016, 11:46 PM
My state's senator Ben Sasse has been battling with Trump online. I think that's funny as hell. 'Braska pride.
phuckphace
March 2nd, 2016, 12:11 AM
Also, I just found out that the RNC requires any nominee at the convention to have won an outright majority of at least 8 states. Thus far not a single candidate has ratched up a single majority, so we'll see where that he's.
what do you think ol' Marco.exe is there for? :D upper echelon of the Rio Grande Party is dead set on making this happen so they can defeat the God-Emperor. that's how kek'd they are, they'd rather lose to Shillary and go extinct than Make America Great Again
jayce_xt
March 2nd, 2016, 03:38 PM
I am not sure where you get the Hitler comparisons from...whatever.
You mean apart from their shared, "I will make (insert country here) great again!", targeting racial / ideological groups as "the cause of this country's ills", endorsement of violence in their name, aggressive foreign policy plans, enormous attraction of violent / racist / fascist individuals within the country to their cause, and announced intentions to change the country's laws to allow them to prosecute any who stand in their way?
LetMeGoogleThatForYou.jpg
https://www.quora.com/How-would-a-German-compare-Donald-Trump-to-Hitler
Please pay special attention to those answering FROM GERMANY. Also, Trump kept a copy of Mein Kampf next to his bed. But, y'know, it's whatevs. Why the comparisons were made could be anyone's guess. Totally out-of-the-blue and without reason.
There is a uniquely American phenomenon... help others.
This isn't "uniquely American". Billionaires across the world champion causes of some choosing. Rather, America is very unlike the rest of the world in that donating to charity reduces the amount of taxes they pay. In essence: they can make up whatever charity they want, donate to it, and that money doesn't get taxed. This becomes power to reshape society as they see fit. Hardly what I would describe as honest philanthropy.
Also, don't get me started on Gates. His entire existence has revolved around control, whether over the computer industry or over domestic policy issues that he takes an interest in.
Now, Trump... do something about it.
Trump is still making money. His presidential campaign, by itself, has seen an almost 3-fold profit on his original investments. Were he to actually succeed as a presidential candidate, he would then be making money AND obtaining direct access to legitimate political power. The conflict of interests would be glaringly obvious to anyone.
As a final note, bankruptcy... refocus their assets.
Yes, yes. Bankruptcy is an amazing way for you to get out of a bad situation--at the expense of everyone else you ****ed over in the process of getting into that situation. Yes, sometimes sudden depressions in the economy can catch one by surprise, and a chapter 11 bankruptcy is required as a sort of, "whoops; I can't pay you all back what you deserve, how do we proceed from here?" Trump's bankruptcies weren't caused by sudden depressions in the economy, though. They were caused solely by his outrageous borrowing habits and inability to pay back his loans.
Someone who has made such gambles (and lost) four times in the course of their career when the vast majority of their peers haven't done it even once speaks very powerfully to their competence in the field.
Porpoise101
March 2nd, 2016, 03:55 PM
To me the question is if he will be like Burlusconi in Italy.
Kahn
March 2nd, 2016, 05:33 PM
If it comes down to Hillary and Trump I may be inclined to vote for Trump.
Porpoise101
March 2nd, 2016, 05:59 PM
If it comes down to Hillary and Trump I may be inclined to vote for Trump.
Why? To me it is then a contest between a skilled, well-connected elite vs a bumbling incompetent one. At least Hillary is somewhat able to run stuff without it failing. And if she is incompetent, she at least has good connections to back her up.
Kahn
March 2nd, 2016, 06:21 PM
Why? To me it is then a contest between a skilled, well-connected elite vs a bumbling incompetent one. At least Hillary is somewhat able to run stuff without it failing. And if she is incompetent, she at least has good connections to back her up.
Hillary shouldn't even be running considering the ongoing investigation with the FBI, in my humble opinion. Her back and forth voting record, her less than encouraging run as Secretary of State, and her recklessness with her email correspondence, on top of that, is proof enough she isn't fit for office. I'm also not for political dynasties. I don't vote for an individual based on their potential future cabinet (or their husband/wife) and I can't imagine a single positive scenario where Hillary Clinton is Commander in Chief.
Plus, I'm an isolationist at heart. Clinton is the furthest thing from that. (Although I understand the importance of our presence on the international stage at the present moment)
Vlerchan
March 2nd, 2016, 06:46 PM
The GOP has to play their cards right. If they do, they can deny Drumpf a majority of delegates.
That's going to take a Stalin-tier level of politicking. The reason that the masses are supporting Trump is because there's the widespread impression that establishment elites are abandoning the white producer-class (male) and their families (female) to maintain their own.
Denial of Trump's nomination through the popular vote would confirm this wholesale. Perhaps anti-Clinton sentiment might get them behind whatever candidate the established elite select this time. But it's going to lead to an an even more unhinged electorate next time around.
---
If I was an elite - quite comfortable I'd securely gerrymandered by seat - I'd buckle-down and let Trumpocalypse just happen: have the electorate get it out of their system.
To me the question is if he will be like Burlusconi in Italy.
I find he's already quite Burlusconi-esque. Since I came across the comparison a while ago I've found it the most apt descriptor.
On the bright side - from what I can recall - the U.S. would place much greater institutional constraints on Trump than the Italian's could do to Burlusconi - who: if I remember correct: altered the electoral system in a bid to cement his party's dominance.
Porpoise101
March 2nd, 2016, 09:31 PM
Hillary shouldn't even be running considering the ongoing investigation with the FBI, in my humble opinion.
Two words: Trump University
Kahn
March 2nd, 2016, 10:44 PM
Two words: Trump University
Hillary paints a pretty picture but she isn't Bernie Sanders and she will not honor her promises.
EDIT: Ah, and it appears that Hillary is alright with censoring information to her benefit (if my assumption is correct based on the information derived from one of her private emails). The email in question says that Google and YouTube had a "block" put in place (https://archive.is/YWJ51), and curiously enough, whatever content they were blocking happened to be blocked after the attacks at Benghazi. Oh, and let's not overlook her discussing our nuclear weapons budget (https://foia.state.gov/searchapp/DOCUMENTS/HRCEmail_Feb26thWeb/O-2015-08641FEB26/DOC_0C05797868/C05797868.pdf), or information regarding current US operations in Syria (https://foia.state.gov/searchapp/DOCUMENTS/HRCEmail_Feb26thWeb/O-2015-08638FEB26/DOC_0C05791788/C05791788.pdf) (2) (https://foia.state.gov/searchapp/DOCUMENTS/HRCEmail_Feb26thWeb/O-2015-08640FEB26/DOC_0C05794753/C05794753.pdf), through insecure networks. Top notch secretarial work, Madame Secretary.
Judean Zealot
March 3rd, 2016, 03:48 AM
Vlerchan
The RNC has rules. Those rules have been in place long before Trump became a thing. There's no reason why the GOP should respect a win of the popular vote that doesn't exceed 50%.
Vlerchan
March 3rd, 2016, 04:04 AM
Vlerchan
The RNC has rules. Those rules have been in place long before Trump became a thing. There's no reason why the GOP should respect a win of the popular vote that doesn't exceed 50%.
I understand there's rules. In this case Trump will still have the largest share of the popular vote.
The point I'm making is that given the current mood of the Republican base - in particular as found in the Southern heartlands - I don't think pointing to the rules is going to be enough.
Or close.
Judean Zealot
March 3rd, 2016, 04:52 AM
Mitt Romney is giving a press conference at 11:30 AM (ET) on the "State of the Republican Primaries".
:D
phuckphace
March 3rd, 2016, 08:25 AM
Mitt Romney
literally who?
:P
Porpoise101
March 3rd, 2016, 08:54 AM
she will not honor her promises
Why wouldn't she? She already has a low support even among Democrats and liberals (me included). If she doesn't follow though she has more to lose.
Judean Zealot
March 3rd, 2016, 01:23 PM
I9vd4kOJwzg
Kahn
March 3rd, 2016, 01:49 PM
Why wouldn't she?
Obama promised a lot of things and didn't fulfill a majority of them. If you honestly believe that Hillary Clinton will be any different, you're fooling only yourself. She is the establishment candidate.
-dY77j6uBHI
Judean Zealot
March 3rd, 2016, 02:09 PM
Everyone ought to pay attention to the way Littlefinger Drumpf will respond to Romney. phuckphace, Oakheart, do you have any way to answer Romney's serious accusations without just mocking Romney?
Kahn
March 3rd, 2016, 02:20 PM
Oakheart, do you have any way to answer Romney's serious accusations without just mocking Romney?
I haven't watched his address yet but once I do I will answer your question.
EDIT: Judean Zealot I thought Mitt was reasonable and accurate in his assessment of Trump's honor, deamenor, poise, immigration policy, and general business practices. Why will lowering taxes across the board cause the country to sink into recession (genuinely unawares of how this works)?
I'm honestly quite disheartened by the state of my nation's current Presidential prospects. After having read anti-Trump sentiment all day, and after having listened to Romney dismantle Trump in just twenty minutes, I don't know who I'd vote for in the event that Clinton and Trump win the nominations. I may just write in Robert Reich.
Also Porpoise101 I apologize for getting a bit snarky, you're not condescending, I am stupid for assuming you were trying to insult me. I assumed you were saying I had been brainwashed by Trump University. After hearing Mr. Romney speak, I know now that Trump University was a failed business venture.
I might as well post this since my views are all over the place, and I find others have a hard time pinpointing exactly where I stand on the political spectrum. This is the quiz (https://www.isidewith.com/elections/2016-presidential-quiz). I answered every single issue posed as honest as possible.
http://i68.tinypic.com/der7sk.jpg
Judean Zealot
March 3rd, 2016, 11:15 PM
Littlefinger Drumpf has explicitly defended his penis size in the debate. Apparently, he is more attracted to P101 than ROTW.
Porpoise101
March 3rd, 2016, 11:17 PM
Littlefinger Drumpf has explicitly defended his penis size in the debate. Apparently, he is more attracted to P101 than ROTW.
Can we get a mod to arrow this discussion now? [emoji23]
Judean Zealot
March 3rd, 2016, 11:19 PM
Can we get a mod to arrow this discussion now? [emoji23]
I'm enjoying myself. :D
Seldom has there been so vacuous and mockable a candidate as the wannabe first orange president.
But seriously, when the man with the golden wig was offered the explicit choice between responding to Romney substantively or with insults, guess which one he chose?
The man has repeatedly shown himself to be a predator of his fellow citizens, what with his multiple scams and "bankruptcies", and none of his calling Romney a loser and dope changes that.
Also, he's all but confirmed that his bluster on immigration is just a show. I'm just disappointed that all the other Republicans on the stage would support this man for president, if push comes to shove. You can almost hear the 30 pieces of silver clinking around in their pockets.
James Dean
March 4th, 2016, 04:08 AM
.................
Uniquemind
March 4th, 2016, 04:34 AM
He only brought it up because Marco Rubio mentioned it during one of his rallies. He was only defending himself. If you're gonna make fun of a man's manhood, be correct about it. lol.
Or he could break another record and show it on live TV to prove a point.
If your gonna break political ceilings ya might as well break em all.
What's he hiding or is he afraid to confirm?
--
Another question to ask is if Mr.Romney reached enough people.
Remember many people don't watch the new, or have school or work.
We shall see, but Trump momentum is on a roll.
However Palin's endorsement to Trump did not help him in Alaska, that state went to Ted Cruz.
Porpoise101
March 4th, 2016, 10:07 AM
Or he could break another record and show it on live TV to prove a point.
If your gonna break political ceilings ya might as well break em all.
What's he hiding or is he afraid to confirm?
--
Another question to ask is if Mr.Romney reached enough people.
Remember many people don't watch the new, or have school or work.
We shall see, but Trump momentum is on a roll.
However Palin's endorsement to Trump did not help him in Alaska, that state went to Ted Cruz.
This one study (I'll try to find it later) shows that more media coverage makes more political support, even if the coverage is bad.
Uniquemind
March 4th, 2016, 11:55 AM
This one study (I'll try to find it later) shows that more media coverage makes more political support, even if the coverage is bad.
Yeah most people I find don't do critical thinking. They watch, hear, and do.
It's mind control marketing 101.
I always ask the question, how much of myself is mind controlled today? < always a healthy mental exercise.
Vlerchan
March 4th, 2016, 06:32 PM
Mitt Romney is giving a press conference at 11:30 AM (ET) on the "State of the Republican Primaries".
:D
I'm a good 47% certain that not a single Trump supporter tuned in. He was never the right person to do this - the quintessential detached establishment stiff: and a loser to boot - and what he offered was a rehash of the John Oliver take-down.
He's also aiming for the nomination at a to-be-brokered convention.
Given the current delegate selection process, that means that I’d vote for Marco Rubio in Florida and for John Kasich in Ohio and for Ted Cruz or whichever one of the other two contenders has the best chance of beating Mr. Trump in a given state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/04/us/politics/mitt-romney-speech.html?_r=0
He never endorsed someone. That was a bad move because it must have reinforced the idea that the establishment is failed. In conjunction with the above cited it also seems indicative of a move to force a brokered convention and then pose as some neutral candidate that people can get behind.
I'd also take Romney over the rest of the field - excluding Kasich - but it wouldn't bode well for the Republicans in the medium-run. This is a turning point like the Goldwater-instigated watershed. Trump might not win but the whole ideas has captured the imaginations of a good portion of the electorate and I can imagine more-respectable candidates taking up the mantle come the next election.
Why will lowering taxes across the board cause the country to sink into recession (genuinely unawares of how this works)?
Trump's taxation plan - if he carries it through - will cause the deficit to double inside a decade. This will increase the interest rate on U.S. government debt and if this outstrips the growth rate in real output in can be very difficult to escape outside a painful recession.
The plans of Rubio and Cruz are similarly nuts but not as deficit-indulging.
The likelihood is that his trade plan won't cause a recession though. Exports are about 15% of U.S. GDP - the U.S. is really low for a number of reasons - and global demand for U.S. exports is quite depressed at the moment. It would result in malinvestment and reduced wage and output growth in the medium-run though - alongside price inflation that will disproportionately hit the working-class.
I'm honestly quite disheartened by the state of my nation's current Presidential prospects.
I'll just add here that I would be too. Last night's debate was cringe-inducing.
phuckphace
March 6th, 2016, 11:46 AM
Drumpf needs to get his shit together. I can't excuse how lame that last debate was, all things considered. my disappointment was nearly assuaged by Rubio.exe popping Addys and Drumpf inspiring Mitt "Bain Capital Logo on My Magic Underwear" Romney to suddenly remember he has a country to care about, but...
Vlerchan
March 6th, 2016, 12:25 PM
I'm not sure whether [1] Carson dropping out had a bigger impact than I thought it would (unlikely) [2] the anti-Trump movement gained a footing (moderately unlikely) or: [3] Trump just under-performing in closed caucuses (likeliest).
I'm waiting for the next few open events to really be able to judge.
Rubio needs to drop out though. Whatever spin he puts on it yesterday was an unmitigated disaster.
Judean Zealot
March 6th, 2016, 05:29 PM
I'm not sure whether [1] Carson dropping out had a bigger impact than I thought it would (unlikely) [2] the anti-Trump movement gained a footing (moderately unlikely) or: [3] Trump just under-performing in closed caucuses (likeliest).
I'm waiting for the next few open events to really be able to judge.
Rubio needs to drop out though. Whatever spin he puts on it yesterday was an unmitigated disaster.
I don't know how friendly the upcoming states are for Trump. It seems Kasich may scoop up a bunch and Rafael will pickup a lot as well. I think a Rafael lead in delegates going into a brokered convention is quite possible. Rubio's just waiting around in Florida for his butt to get kicked.
Porpoise101
March 6th, 2016, 06:08 PM
Rubio needs to drop out though. Whatever spin he puts on it yesterday was an unmitigated disaster.
I agree. Ted Cruz is the most "normal" candidate the GOP establishment can hope to salvage at this point. To the establishment, that is bad enough because he is somewhat hostile to it.
Vlerchan
March 6th, 2016, 06:49 PM
I don't know how friendly the upcoming states are for Trump.
I'm personally sceptical he'll do well in the midwest. I have a friend who's a card-carrying Republican out there and the entire mood just seems sour towards him.
But I'd still expect him to take [1] Florida (99) [2] North Carolina (72) [3] Mississippi (40) [4] Missouri (52) [5] Arizona (58) of of the ones coming up. He's also pegged to capture some of the Midwestern states but I'm not so sure.
Though I'm a lot less certain on some of those prediction that I would have been this time last week.
It seems Kasich may scoop up a bunch and Rafael will pickup a lot as well.
If I remember correct a number of the upcoming ones are winner-takes all. If we're talking about delegates I'm actually worried we might see Trump begin to break away.
Winning in Florida would be disastrous for everyone else.
I agree. Ted Cruz is the most "normal" candidate the GOP establishment can hope to salvage at this point. To the establishment, that is bad enough because he is somewhat hostile to it.
Cruz is normal insofar as he's less crass and incendiary than Trump.
I still believe his policy positions are a lot worse - bordering on nuts.
Porpoise101
March 6th, 2016, 08:48 PM
I still believe his policy positions are a lot worse - bordering on nuts.
Worse than who? I figured they were no worse than Trump policy, but inferior to Marco's.
phuckphace
March 7th, 2016, 02:52 AM
I'd vote for Bernie over Cruz, just sayin'
Vlerchan
March 7th, 2016, 03:33 AM
Worse than who? I figured they were no worse than Trump policy, but inferior to Marco's.
In-and-around the same as Trump except for his support for a renewed gold standard. That this is couched in the rhetoric of austrians makes me want to run a mile (or ten).
Rubio is a lot more moderate though - to compensate - he does come across as pretty unintelligent despite his team of speech-writers.
phuckphace
March 7th, 2016, 03:41 AM
Cruz is like a book that says "Holy Bible" on the cover but when you open it up it's actually Atlas Shrugged (in Spanish)
Hudor
March 7th, 2016, 04:11 AM
As of now, Cruz seems the only Republican alternative to Trump, albeit not one much better.
phuckphace
March 7th, 2016, 04:49 AM
Drumpf is effectively more conservative than Cruz or Rubio and he's not even conservative
GOP status: just about DONE
post status = missed as fuck. sorry brah, I wasn't ignorin' ya.
My deep reaction against Trump stems from the fact that I feel that his candidacy and success will mark the beginning of the end of the American Republic.
the American Republic is done and dusted, replaced with America Inc. a few decades ago. we're not a "republic" in any meaningful sense any more than North Korea is a "people's republic." this era is what I'd call stage II of a rapidly advancing decline that has been long underway. this is our era of the Caesars, complete with bread, circuses and theatrical pretense of democracy. we're both far too young to have witnessed America in its former glory.
Donald Trump is a man in whom I find every character trait I despise, in double plus measure. Arrogance, deceit, bluster, cruelty, and more, all wrapped up in one man with bad hair. The thought that such a man might get the nomination of a once respectable and viable political party saddens and disturbs me greatly. As a matter of fact, it's confirmed my personal opinion that Republicanism as is currently practiced is untenable, a position I have been desperately hoping to find a way around, but apparently now I need to settle with.
the Republican party is going extinct for a couple of reasons, but, all fair criticism of Trump's character aside, it has little if anything to do with him.
the GOP has declined as a party because they were complicit in the ongoing neoliberal population replacement project to eradicate all the Ward Cleavers and replace them with Shaniquas and Sanchezes and Pajeets, and seeing this, the remaining descendants of those who once did everything meaningful in our formerly great country abandoned the party out of hopelessness and disgust. the few GOP loyalists still around were kept ensnared in the Party by cynical culture-war pandering (I can pretty much guarantee you that the inner Party couldn't give less of a rat's ass about abortion, gay marriage or God, as they sneer privately at their own base) which makes the GOP's decline, in my opinion, as well-deserved as it was inevitable. the new "Americans", as it turns out, don't care about our republican heritage or the Constitution or really anything beyond the balance of their EBT card. that's something that GOP hacks like Jeb Bush are too obtuse to recognize - the nation is the sum of its parts, and a meaningful Constitution requires a people who have hope for the future to care about it.
tl;dr - the GOP and our republic resigned itself to extinction as soon as they decided to redefine conservatism to mean "corporate oligarchy", "endless war" and "open borders."
I also admit that my mischaracterisation of Trump voters as illiterate, obese hicks was innacurate and uncalled for, and as such I apologise. This business just really gets my goat.
no offense taken - I'm not the least bit bothered by attacks on Trump's character - politicians are fair game. but hopefully my post above clarified why the GOP has only themselves to blame for Trump, even though they'll never, ever admit it.
Posts merged, please use the Edit button.~Giygas
Microcosm
March 7th, 2016, 11:01 PM
If America's gonna go, I'd like to see it go with someone who I can be somewhat proud of--not a racist with no sense of shame whatsoever.
He's called women slobs, been booed for it, and then not even given an apology or felt bad about it in any public way. I don't want a president who just does his own thing regardless of what the public thinks, and I'm confident that is what Trump would do.
Vlerchan
March 8th, 2016, 08:11 PM
A quick note on Trump’s bad Tuesday: the Better Business Bureau debunked his claims about the quality of Trump University, a report came out that a previously unacknowledged amount of Trump-branded merchandise is made overseas, and a report came out that Trump claimed a tax break reserved for households making less than $500,000 a year.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/mar/08/michigan-mississippi-primary-trump-clinton-sanders-rubio-cruz-live
Lol.
I retract any past statements I made about his current state of electability.
---
Edit: 2.09am GMT and the other candidates are getting steamrolled by Trump. Guess I underestimated his intrinsic appeal.
Rubio's also running last in both.
Edit2:
Forty-eight percent of U.S. voters in the Morning Consult survey released Tuesday said the former GOP nominee's speech widely publicized speech had "no impact either way" on whether they support Trump. Twenty percent said Romney's remarks make them less likely to vote for the New York billionaire while 25 percent said they are now more likely to back him.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-romneys-speech-had-little-impact-on-trump/article/2585250?custom_click=rss
phuckphace Judean Zealot
You couldn't make this stuff up.
phuckphace
March 8th, 2016, 09:49 PM
prediction: Drumpf takes Idaho but loses Hawaii. polls close in a couple more hours.
yeah at this point he's the obvious "fuck you" candidate regardless of what he does. he could stand in Times Square and cap somebody and wouldn't lose supporters, as you'll recall. lmao.
theories have been flying around for awhile that Drumpf is playing chess grandmaster with the media as his pawns - make calculated, intentionally outrageous and over-the-top statements, media attacks them with a frenzy and gives him free advertising (to normal people, the MSM condemning something probably means it's actually good). this just confirms that totally.
I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually starts making speeches in a Bane mask :lol3:
Porpoise101
March 8th, 2016, 09:53 PM
Trump will win my state. Welp.
phuckphace
March 8th, 2016, 10:06 PM
Trump will win my state. Welp.
this just in: spray-painted tags decorating the crumbling ruins have been decoded. "Make Detroit Great Again"
Britboo14
March 9th, 2016, 10:22 AM
If I could vote, I'd vote for bernie, then Hillary, after she wins the nomination
Porpoise101
March 9th, 2016, 12:44 PM
this just in: spray-painted tags decorating the crumbling ruins have been decoded. "Make Detroit Great Again"
Lol it's already becoming great again. We are catching up to other great cities. We are even getting an aquarium!!!
Vlerchan
March 15th, 2016, 07:10 PM
Little Marco got creamed in Florida and is trailing in all the others - though with just 1% reporting.
He might have been in with a chance of rebounding for the next nomination had he dropped out before this. It might take him a while to recover now though.
---
Edit: It's official: Goodbye Rubio.
Porpoise101
March 15th, 2016, 08:56 PM
Well at least Kasich got Ohio. Maybe Ohioans aren't complete shmucks.
Anyone from Michigan will know that is a serious compliment.
phuckphace
March 15th, 2016, 10:16 PM
lol just checked results, not surprised to see the God-Emperor take Illinois after the BLM vs. Drumpfabteilung scuffles
normal people really really hate rioters, especially the kind who wear their pants around their knees and bob their heads like cockatoos. Make Chicongo Great Again!
Kahn
March 16th, 2016, 01:23 AM
Well at least Kasich got Ohio. Maybe Ohioans aren't complete shmucks.
Former Ohioan reporting in. Can confirm Ohioans are complete schmucks. (kidding :P)
Disappointed to see Hillary take Illinois. Everyone I know voted Sanders. Doesn't surprise me she won, though, just deeply disappoints me.
Vlerchan
March 16th, 2016, 03:37 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdocA6cUsAEbWms.jpg
phuckphace
March 16th, 2016, 03:59 AM
I'm surprised Drumpf won Missouri, expected a Rafael win tbqh
I think Missouri is winner-take-all (much like the free market) but either way his lead is now yuuuuge
Porpoise101
March 16th, 2016, 06:06 AM
image (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdocA6cUsAEbWms.jpg)
Very interesting. I think those numbers are higher than some of the polls taken in the earlier primaries.
Vlerchan
March 16th, 2016, 06:36 AM
I imagine it's distorted upwards because of the Belgian raids featuring in the news on the same day.
phuckphace
March 16th, 2016, 11:55 AM
you have to remember that thanks to the Internet, it's becoming more and more difficult for the lying-press to hold a narrative that doesn't match with reality. if the European refugee nonsense had gone down in the 90s or 80s we wouldn't be hearing about it, but now anybody who catches Trump making ISLAMOPHOBIC COMMENTS THAT STIR HATE can hop on the net and discover the lengths that the establishment is going to cover up the refugee rapes, the Left's cognitive dissonance related to same, and I think that's beginning to sway popular opinion.
in short I'm guessing those poll results are likely due to people not wanting a repeat of what's happening in Europe.
mahony0509
March 16th, 2016, 03:25 PM
*Spoiler alert for what happens next*
- Trump is charged with inciting violence
- Goes to jail
- There, he writes a book about His Struggle
In all seriousnes, Trump is a bit of a lunatic, t'be fair.
James Dean
March 17th, 2016, 04:13 AM
....................
phuckphace
March 17th, 2016, 08:49 AM
*Spoiler alert for what happens next*
- Trump is charged with inciting violence
- Goes to jail
- There, he writes a book about His Struggle
http://i.imgur.com/MclEtyn.gif http://i.imgur.com/MclEtyn.gif
Stronk Serb
March 17th, 2016, 02:07 PM
*Spoiler alert for what happens next*
- Trump is charged with inciting violence
- Goes to jail
- There, he writes a book about His Struggle
In all seriousnes, Trump is a bit of a lunatic, t'be fair.
>Might be charged for inciting violence
>Lefties (mostly minorities) invaded his rally and started causing trouble
>Much legal state and freedom of speech and expression (if charged)
Honestly, if they charge him for that, the US truly deserves to be "ALLAHU AKBAR'D". At least under Sharia law you are guilty as charged whereas if Trump gets sentenced, it proves that in a libtard society you are guilty for expressing a politically incorrect opinion.
Vlerchan
March 23rd, 2016, 05:44 PM
you have to remember that thanks to the Internet, it's becoming more and more difficult for the lying-press to hold a narrative that doesn't match with reality. if the European refugee nonsense had gone down in the 90s or 80s we wouldn't be hearing about it, but now anybody who catches Trump making ISLAMOPHOBIC COMMENTS THAT STIR HATE can hop on the net and discover the lengths that the establishment is going to cover up the refugee rapes, the Left's cognitive dissonance related to same, and I think that's beginning to sway popular opinion.
I figure the internet is important here for another more-general reason tangential to the point made here. In the past elites were the only people that had the spare times and means to communicate with the masses. That offered them the natural position of leading and directing mass political movements. In the modern era where the average person has a lot more spare time and it just takes an internet connection to lead the debate: the elite as the natural leader is displaced. What's more: compared to the average person elites spend much more time working than their historical average and thus their role is diminished.
There was an interesting report on newsblog commenting released this month. If I find it again I'll link it. To sum - though - people that comment on news sites tend to be less educated than the average. I imagine because these people have more time. The more average people tend to read these comments and I imagine some amount is ingested.
This is good if you're a populist and probably in-part explains how Trump's and Sander's campaigns grew in the earliest stages. I'm thinking that people can say what they will about mainstream media: but this trend almost certainly isn't going to be conductive to stable long-run policy-making.
cuzzintrevv
March 23rd, 2016, 07:33 PM
Honestly I don't like any of the candidates I would skip this election if I could vote but my entire family is very strong democratic and proud of Hillary but I honestly don't like her views so thats what I have to say
phuckphace
March 24th, 2016, 11:44 AM
There was an interesting report on newsblog commenting released this month. If I find it again I'll link it. To sum - though - people that comment on news sites tend to be less educated than the average. I imagine because these people have more time. The more average people tend to read these comments and I imagine some amount is ingested.
this reminds me of an "online study" or something that asked people demographic and political questions about the war in Ukraine, and also had people locate Ukraine on an outline map of the globe. many of the guesses were wayyy the fuck off, and they revealed that the closer the correct guess as to Ukraine's location, the less they wanted the US to fuck with the Crimea Cru. so Jimbob in Kansas who looked for Ukraine on the map and clicked on Portugal is apparently skewing a lot of shit with the power of his dumbness
Kahn
March 24th, 2016, 11:56 AM
Proud of Hillary
What's there to be proud of?
-dY77j6uBHI
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ZMpqImAjel4
d3YZVxtYVLA
-3b09Pf59f4
g1jFlM9X14k
phuckphace
March 24th, 2016, 12:05 PM
SUP HAXORS HERE'S AN UNCENSORED GOOGLE EARTH STILL OF ALL OUR MISSILE SILOS AND ALSO OTHER SMALLTIME BULLSHIT LIKE LAUNCH CODES 'N' SHIT, JUST STORING IT RIGHT HERE IN MY EASILY HAXED PERSONAL SERVER OPEN TO THE OUTSIDE INTERNET
http://i.imgur.com/295zi3t.jpg
THIS IS A VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY TO DISCREDIT MUH PROGRESS (BLAH BLAH CURRENT YEAR BLAH)
http://i.imgur.com/295zi3t.jpg
THAT DAVOS FEEL WHEN YOU GOT THE MONEY OF 1,488 DONALD TRUMPS
http://i.imgur.com/295zi3t.jpg
Vlerchan
April 6th, 2016, 04:52 AM
WASHINGTON - Donald Trump proposed on Tuesday forcing Mexico to pay for his planned border wall by threatening to block remittances from illegal immigrants, which he said amounts to "welfare" for poor families in Mexico that their government does not provide.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X21CY
Called it.
I'm also thinking the seeming invocations of Waterloo after the vote in Wisconsin is premature but it does seem like that Trump train is starting to come off the tracks.
sqishy
April 6th, 2016, 06:50 AM
WASHINGTON - Donald Trump proposed on Tuesday forcing Mexico to pay for his planned border wall by threatening to block remittances from illegal immigrants, which he said amounts to "welfare" for poor families in Mexico that their government does not provide.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X21CY
Called it.
I'm also thinking the seeming invocations of Waterloo after the vote in Wisconsin is premature but it does seem like that Trump train is starting to come off the tracks.
Trump's recent actions are even hard to justify from any POV you can picture he is in - it just seems politically suicidal. As another example, saying that women who went through abortions should be punished, which is a big risk to take regarding half of the electorate are women (I assume half).
I'm interested in what you think of this article (not unbelievable at the least):
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-zombeck/donald-trump-is-beginning_b_9608654.html
James Dean
June 10th, 2016, 12:17 AM
...................
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