[Irish] Election to take place on 26 February [Archive]

View Full Version : [Irish] Election to take place on 26 February

Vlerchan

February 4th, 2016, 11:39 AM

Judean Zealot

February 4th, 2016, 11:55 AM

sqishy

February 4th, 2016, 02:46 PM

President Michael D Higgins has dissolved the 31st Dáil after Taoiseach Enda Kenny visited Áras an Uachtaráin, paving the way for a General Election.

Election 2016 will take place on Friday 26 February.

http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0203/764971-general-election-called/

If people are interested I'm voting:

Social Democrats
Renua
Fianna Fail
Labour

In that order. I despise both Fianna Fail and Labour so this is purely strategic.

Thanks for the mention - I have to say something on this I guess :P .

Why are you voting for these four parties? Just want to know your reasons.

Personally, I've got little to offer other than negative views on all the parties, except for the independents (perhaps, basing on what I'm seeing I know and care relatively little about Irish politics Vlerchan).

I'm taking a mostly absent approach to all of this, basing on my impressions, and the repeated analyses of these impressions, from what I infer from the news.

Vlerchan

February 4th, 2016, 06:17 PM

Does it look like Fine Gael will hold on to the Dáil?
It will win the most seats and I imagine retain it. It's unclear whether the coalition as a whole will though.

FG dropped two percent in the last three months - down to twenty-eight percent - and that places the coalition on about thirty-five percent of the overall vote. There's still a lot of potential for variation though. Independents and others capture about a quarter of the vote and a good fifth are undecided - though I have no idea what the characteristics of that contingent are.

Why are you voting for these four parties? Just want to know your reasons.
Social Democrats: Field a strong candidate where I live. He has in recent times swung a lot more to the left but from speaking with SD's leader - Shorthall - it was indicated that he's there to add a business orientation to the group. The main reason though is that he provides a strong voice in opposition and I'm voting here with the next election in mind.
He also poses as someone of a more national-focused mindset. That his concerns extend beyond attempting to secure his local town a swimming pool and better roads is always nice.
Renua: It's more or less a single issue party. I don't support the flat tax and the representatives I've talked to seem nuts - one admitted to running because he hoped to reduce his tax burden: though he emphasised in this the amount he paid out to financial accountants. Nonetheless their orientation is interesting - support an end to the auction-politics that plagues us.
Fianna Fáil: I want to see a FG-FF coalition. It would be disastrous and the likelihood is that it would fold - but that's the point. I'm willing for this because it will once and for all expose the centre-right axis that Irish politics rests on. We might not get another chance like this in our lifetimes. Though I'm still pessimistic about overturning the current state of affairs: the problems lie deep in Irish political culture.
Labour: I'd rather have Labour in coalition if Fianna Fáil don't make it. Though there's no chance their candidate retaining her seat so marking this on the ballot will likely turn out to be a waste of time.
Feel free to ask further questions.

Personally, I've got little to offer other than negative views on all the parties, except for the independents (perhaps, basing on what I'm seeing I know and care relatively little about Irish politics @Vlerchan).
Independents represent the worst of Irish political culture. The issue is that Irish voters are too parochial and local-orientated: favouring a centralised state whilst otherwise remaining distrustful of it. Independents are a product of this mood.

Judean Zealot

February 5th, 2016, 01:37 AM

Vlerchan:

Another cool thing is that the entire election season is only a month.

Vlerchan

February 5th, 2016, 06:40 AM

Vlerchan:

Another cool thing is that the entire election season is only a month.
We think it's still too much :P.

It's cool too that the worst of it is a couple of posters and the small chance one of the representatives might want a chat at your doorstep.

We get off pretty easy really.

sqishy

February 5th, 2016, 06:18 PM

Social Democrats: Field a strong candidate where I live. He has in recent times swung a lot more to the left but from speaking with SD's leader - Shorthall - it was indicated that he's there to add a business orientation to the group. The main reason though is that he provides a strong voice in opposition and I'm voting here with the next election in mind.
He also poses as someone of a more national-focused mindset. That his concerns extend beyond attempting to secure his local town a swimming pool and better roads is always nice.

Sounds good.

Renua: It's more or less a single issue party. I don't support the flat tax and the representatives I've talked to seem nuts - one admitted to running because he hoped to reduce his tax burden: though he emphasised in this the amount he paid out to financial accountants. Nonetheless their orientation is interesting - support an end to the auction-politics that plagues us.

I'm sceptical of Reuna, but experience is more revealing than hypothesising.

Fianna Fáil: I want to see a FG-FF coalition. It would be disastrous and the likelihood is that it would fold - but that's the point. I'm willing for this because it will once and for all expose the centre-right axis that Irish politics rests on. We might not get another chance like this in our lifetimes. Though I'm still pessimistic about overturning the current state of affairs: the problems lie deep in Irish political culture.

I go with this. It's analogous to the only part of me that wants Trump to get into US presidency, to show what will happen as a result.

Labour: I'd rather have Labour in coalition if Fianna Fáil don't make it. Though there's no chance their candidate retaining her seat so marking this on the ballot will likely turn out to be a waste of time.[/list]

Alright. I feel that Joan Burton needs to fall out of a canoe into a silage tank though.

Independents represent the worst of Irish political culture. The issue is that Irish voters are too parochial and local-orientated: favouring a centralised state whilst otherwise remaining distrustful of it. Independents are a product of this mood.

I don't disagree with this at all - I referred to independents mostly because I'd like to see what happens if a majority of them, or just more of them, would get into govt (like your FF-FG idea, but more from perspective of experiment, rather than showing what crap will result). The lesser part of my reason was that I am hopeful that there is at least one independent out there that isn't like the rest, who also does their best to act out their ideas themselves, not just being a 'camper' in a group (as with some TDs of the parties, I feel).

Along topic, what's your opinion on Ming Flanagan?

Vlerchan

February 5th, 2016, 06:43 PM

I go with this. It's analogous to the only part of me that wants Trump to get into US presidency, to show what will happen as a result.
I'll emphasise though it's mostly to demonstrate that FG and FF represent two side of the same coin. That seems lost on a considerable part of the electorate. The FG supporters in my class think FF is a left-wing party.

Alright. I feel that Joan Burton needs to fall out of a canoe into a silage tank though.
What's your issue with Burton? I don't think she's a bad fit for what she does.

The lesser part of my reason was that I am hopeful that there is at least one independent out there that isn't like the rest, who also does their best to act out their ideas themselves, not just being a 'camper' in a group (as with some TDs of the parties, I feel).
Most of the independents have much more freedom than the counterparts that are tied to political groups. The issue is that this freedom is used to pursue their parish-pump agenda.

There's exceptions - Katherine Zappone of Dublin South-West springs to mind - though those tend to be few and far between.

Along topic, what's your opinion on Ming Flanagan?
Tool - to put it into the last amount of words possible.

You?

sqishy

February 5th, 2016, 06:47 PM

I'll emphasise though it's mostly to demonstrate that FG and FF represent two side of the same coin. That seems lost on a considerable part of the electorate.

Yes, basically.

What's your issue with Burton? I don't think she's a bad fit for what she does.

It's more of a personal reaction that I have; her personality which reminds me of a patronising teacher just gets to me. In other words, I just don't like her, from some speeches I have heard, and the reaction with regards to the water protest 'car incarceration'. You'd know more about the actual politics and policies, so I won't overlap what I don't know as much about. I don't want to let my emotion override rational judgement (I don't want to be hypocritical), but my inductive impressions have, well, made an impression.

Most of the independents have much more freedom than the counterparts that are tied to political groups. The issue is that this freedom is used to pursue their parish-pump agenda.

Agreeing with this.

There's exceptions - Katherine Zappone of Dublin South-West springs to mind - though those tend to be few and far between.

I'll look into her.

Tool - to put it into the last amount of words possible.

You?

Not much, just wondered what you thought of the TD with the cosmic nickname :P .

Vlerchan

February 16th, 2016, 07:27 PM

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0215/768059-live-election-2016/

That's a link to the as-it-happened for the leaders debate. My man Donelly put on a good show. He got sneered at as seeming like a 'disinterested economist' and 'management-consultant' which has only endeared him to me more.

Vlerchan

February 26th, 2016, 06:43 PM

The Coalition parties have fallen far short of an overall majority in the next Dail, according to an exit poll conducted for The Irish Times by Ipsos, MRBI.
Fine Gael support has slumped from 36.1 per cent in the last general election to only 26.1 per cent – a far worse result than the party anticipated at any stage of the campaign.
The poll indicates the Labour Party received just under 8 per cent support, far behind the 19.5 per cent it achieved at the 2011 general election.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2016-irish-times-exit-poll-shows-coalition-well-short-of-overall-majority-1.2550489#.VtDZRYSvhd4.facebook

This is from the exit poll. It's genuinely disgusting that Fianna Fáil ended up with a quarter of the vote. On the brightside it's concentrated outside Dublin - and with luck rural Ireland will be defunded inside the next decade or two.

More-or-less Fianna Fáil and Fianna Geal are the only two parties that can form government together. Labour and Fianna Gael are well off target. Sinn Fein won't form a coalition with Fianna Geal if they have enough seats - and the likilihood of them having enough joint with Fianna Fáil is slim. Social Democrats have no intention of forming government. Renua won't get in with Fianna Geal. Fianna Geal and the countries independents wouldn't last a month.

When the actual results are released I'll have a second thread for no-one to comment on.

Judean Zealot

February 27th, 2016, 12:49 AM

Vlerchan
Isn't this what you wanted - a screwed up coalition?

Vlerchan

February 27th, 2016, 07:40 AM

Vlerchan
Isn't this what you wanted - a screwed up coalition?
It's screwed-up insofar as FF and FG desire it to be screwed up - Their disagreements are broadly rhetorical. I'm looking for a consolidated old-right that can cannibalise each other over the course of the next government. Then we might have electoral competition.

Both realise that one would end up eating the other though which is the reason a lot I people - and I'm amicable to it - are calling another snap election in 3 months.

---

FG are talking about a rainbow coalition excluding FF but I don't feel that's credible. I imagine it's being pushed because over half of Labour second preferences are heading to Fine Gael on the basis of a renewed coalition.

FF seems to also be placing first most of the time outside of Dublin. From the look of the spread though it's candidate based: their vote is centred on one candidate and then the others in FF a fair amount behind it.

Oh and our Tanaiste and Finance Minister could be booted out. Both trailing though our Finance Minister is expected to benefit some amount from transfers.

Judean Zealot

February 27th, 2016, 07:43 AM

Paraxiom

Did you vote?

mahony0509

February 27th, 2016, 07:47 AM

Fianna Fail on the up after the first tally. Fine Gael look to lose many seats. I my constituency, Michael McGrath and Michael Martin of Fianna Fail elected after first count, as of the tally. Sinn Fein also going to gain a seat as it stands. Renua and AAAPBP very low.

Vlerchan

February 27th, 2016, 08:22 AM

For a run-down of Wicklow. We've had 40% of the votes counted and it more-or-less replicates where we stood after 20%.

Stephen Donnelly of the Social Democrats is topping at around 21%. Fine Gael and Sinn Fein both have candidates in at about 15%. Billy Timmins of Renua and Pat Casey of Fianna Fáil are both in at 10%. The second Fine Gael candidate is some amount behind. Labour's vote collapsed and Ferris is running at 3%.

---

It's also looking like Social Democrats are polling well wherever they've placed candidates.

Donnelly and Shorthall and Murphy are all looking to top polls which has me delighted.

---
Judean Zealot: You might be interested to find out that Alan Shatter has lost his seat

Judean Zealot

February 27th, 2016, 07:25 PM

Ahh well. He had corruption issues, didn't he?

sqishy

February 27th, 2016, 07:52 PM

Paraxiom

Did you vote?

I did yes (apologies for forgetting about this thread).

1: Niamh O'Brien [Fís Nua].

2: Noeleen Moran [Sinn Féin].

3: Dr. Michael Harty [Independent].

That was it.

Vlerchan

February 29th, 2016, 03:47 PM

1: Niamh O'Brien [Fís Nua].
I had a look and was turned away entirely by her anti-GMO, anti-Water Charges, and anti-TTIP and degrowth stances.

He had corruption issues, didn't he?
He criticised a policewhistleblower who'd highlighted corruption within the gardaí - is the big one. I'm not sure about corruption. He wasn't someone I followed too closely.

---

There's also still 8 seats to go. In sum FG look to have snatched a bare victory - FF did surprisingly well - Independents and SF had a great turnout - Labour was decimated.

sqishy

March 3rd, 2016, 02:36 PM

I had a look and was turned away entirely by her anti-GMO, anti-Water Charges, and anti-TTIP and degrowth stances.

Being turned off by most of the election stuff, I just went onto a manifesto similarity comparison website, and she was the first on the list for me. The other two were 2nd and 3rd. I recall that she was 70% with my viewpoints, the others being 60 and 50 (it went in increments of 5%).