Malthusian general thread

[phuckphace]

to quote the late tonymontana99, "when it all comes crashing down, WITH NO SURVIVORS..." (PBUH)

itt we can discuss any kind of large-scale disaster, whether anthropogenic, natural or a combination of both. mind you I'm not referring to a "localized" disaster such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but one where a large chunk of the global populace is not only affected but actually killed off. I think a quarter or 25% is not unreasonable or too tinfoily.

I don't consider myself a Malthusian in the classical sense - one where the population continues to grow indefinitely until every single drop of fuel is burned and every single tree is cut down. I also find it unlikely that a mass extinction of all humans will occur anytime soon barring some sort of Chicxulub-style giant impact scenario.

my prediction: I believe that India will suffer a near-total, catastrophic pandemic of some kind or another within 50 years, one that will probably annihilate the majority of the country and to a lesser extent, adjacent nations. based on my findings from e-researching the country and its conditions, it's apparent that they're setting themselves up for a "perfect storm", based on the following:

-very large population that is densely packed, numbering over 1 billion people
-the population is extensively intermingled with animals, specifically cows
-open defecation and use of the same water for drinking and "washing" - contamination is widespread. even if a given Indian individual follows proper hygiene practices, he or she is still unable to avoid exposure to microbes due to the omnipresence of raw sewage and contact with other individuals who don't.
-a high portion of the populace has access to antibiotics, which are prescribed recklessly and have led to the emergence of drug-resistant pathogens. this is an example of evolution by artificial selection - the drug-resistant strains will (and do) crowd out the weaker strains until only the deadliest remain.

I'm hoping this prediction turns out to be wrong, but there are several reasons why I believe it won't be. given the huge expense of R&D that goes into new drugs, particularly to combat these newly-emerged strains, and the time required (a couple of decades) coupled with the poverty and lack of an infrastructure to facilitate a quick response, it wouldn't surprise me if Black Death 2.0 ends up beating SCIENCE! to the punch. pandemics aren't new, and in my opinion we're overdue for another "Big One" c.f. the Black Death or the Influenza of the early 20th century. there have never been more humans alive at one time than now, and thus a pandemic occurring today would probably result in a proportionate body-count.

feel free to post your agreements, disagreements, and theories of your own. I'd like to keep this as least tinfoil as possible, though.

[Judean Zealot]

The only disaster I see really hitting on a global scale is some sort of Plague 2.0. That we are becoming more immune to antibiotics is rather concerning.

[Vlerchan]

...lack of an infrastructure to facilitate a quick response...
India has quote an extensive rail network leftover from the British occupation. These were designed so the British could move troops large distances on a short notice. The Indian government also just committed to putting 143 billion into improving them over the next half-decade.

Exposure to human defecation also isn't uncommon in developing countries. It's the reasons worms spread at the rate it does.

---

I share the concerns about becoming immune to antibiotics.

[Uniquemind]

Who is tony? Was he a former poster here who died?

[Judean Zealot]

Who is tony? Was he a former poster here who died?

Tony Montana. He was a conspiracy theorist lolbertarian (?) who was [-]executed[/-] banned.

[Uniquemind]

to quote the late tonymontana99, "when it all comes crashing down, WITH NO SURVIVORS..." (PBUH)

itt we can discuss any kind of large-scale disaster, whether anthropogenic, natural or a combination of both. mind you I'm not referring to a "localized" disaster such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but one where a large chunk of the global populace is not only affected but actually killed off. I think a quarter or 25% is not unreasonable or too tinfoily.

I don't consider myself a Malthusian in the classical sense - one where the population continues to grow indefinitely until every single drop of fuel is burned and every single tree is cut down. I also find it unlikely that a mass extinction of all humans will occur anytime soon barring some sort of Chicxulub-style giant impact scenario.

my prediction: I believe that India will suffer a near-total, catastrophic pandemic of some kind or another within 50 years, one that will probably annihilate the majority of the country and to a lesser extent, adjacent nations. based on my findings from e-researching the country and its conditions, it's apparent that they're setting themselves up for a "perfect storm", based on the following:

-very large population that is densely packed, numbering over 1 billion people
-the population is extensively intermingled with animals, specifically cows
-open defecation and use of the same water for drinking and "washing" - contamination is widespread. even if a given Indian individual follows proper hygiene practices, he or she is still unable to avoid exposure to microbes due to the omnipresence of raw sewage and contact with other individuals who don't.
-a high portion of the populace has access to antibiotics, which are prescribed recklessly and have led to the emergence of drug-resistant pathogens. this is an example of evolution by artificial selection - the drug-resistant strains will (and do) crowd out the weaker strains until only the deadliest remain.

I'm hoping this prediction turns out to be wrong, but there are several reasons why I believe it won't be. given the huge expense of R&D that goes into new drugs, particularly to combat these newly-emerged strains, and the time required (a couple of decades) coupled with the poverty and lack of an infrastructure to facilitate a quick response, it wouldn't surprise me if Black Death 2.0 ends up beating SCIENCE! to the punch. pandemics aren't new, and in my opinion we're overdue for another "Big One" c.f. the Black Death or the Influenza of the early 20th century. there have never been more humans alive at one time than now, and thus a pandemic occurring today would probably result in a proportionate body-count.

feel free to post your agreements, disagreements, and theories of your own. I'd like to keep this as least tinfoil as possible, though.


In this scenario, I'd throw human and natural rights out the window.

Rights of the many outweighs the rights of a few each and every time.


Got a sick loved one with antibiotic resistant strains that are highly contagious?

Solution: round em up and incinerate everything they touched.

And it would have to be on a massive scale, rivaling what Hitler called "the final solution" ironically enough I think our species would be that desperate.

[Hudor]

my prediction: I believe that India will suffer a near-total, catastrophic pandemic of some kind or another within 50 years, one that will probably annihilate the majority of the country and to a lesser extent, adjacent nations. based on my findings from e-researching the country and its conditions, it's apparent that they're setting themselves up for a "perfect storm", based on the following:

-very large population that is densely packed, numbering over 1 billion people
-the population is extensively intermingled with animals, specifically cows
-open defecation and use of the same water for drinking and "washing" - contamination is widespread. even if a given Indian individual follows proper hygiene practices, he or she is still unable to avoid exposure to microbes due to the omnipresence of raw sewage and contact with other individuals who don't.
-a high portion of the populace has access to antibiotics, which are prescribed recklessly and have led to the emergence of drug-resistant pathogens. this is an example of evolution by artificial selection - the drug-resistant strains will (and do) crowd out the weaker strains until only the deadliest remain.


I agree the scenario of dirt is pretty much what you described in large parts of the country but the current government is taking the same into heavy consideration and taking gradual steps to change things. Obviously i won't call it a radical change but the awareness about the cleanliness drive etc is growing fast and i think the scenario might be a lot different in say, 10 years?

As to the population thingy, population control is extremely necessary. Probably something like the one-child policy. But there are a lot of problems with enforcing it-rooting from certain people's reluctance to give up privileges, intolerance, unnecessary religious divides and petty politics.

India actually had an excellent school of medicine, Ayurveda that lost prominence along with a multitude of highly beneficial things and practices during the centuries of game of thrones. Ironically, as much of the nation goes about doing what's "cool" in the West, Westerners are taking up Ancient Indian practices and thus, those stuff are regaining popularity in the country :P
The last point is the most concerning and i guess one of the prudent solutions that i see to it is to try and make life less complicated, step away from a lot of unnecessary artificial accessories and live life as naturally as possible.

[Porpoise101]

Tony Montana. He was a conspiracy theorist lolbertarian (?) who was [-]executed[/-] banned.
Oh I was wondering where he was. That settles that I suppose.

Anyways I think disease is an issue, but we will overcome it. Yes, if a disease struck right now we would be screwed, but I think we would be alright honestly in the long term. India would be a good place to start it, but I feel that a quarantine would be possible somewhat. The thing is that over there, humans have been exposed to the animals habitually. If there was a place where a new disease could pop up, it would be in sub-Saharan Africa. Since there is infrequent contact with a wide variety of species there, the new disease could easily arise from these places. If you look at some of the more recent terrors, HIV and Ebola, you see that they came from African species of simian and bat kinds respectively. So I guess I'm saying that if you want a mutated version of today's diseases, go to India, USA, or China. But if you want to find a new horror not yet unleashed onto mankind, go to Nigeria or Congo.

[Sir Suomi]

Tony Montana. He was a conspiracy theorist lolbertarian (?) who was [-]executed[/-] banned.

A Pseudo-Libertarian more like it, in my eyes.

Anyways, addressing the situation, I couldn't agree more. History has proven, when populations become too condensed, coupled with poor hygiene standards, massive outbreaks are an inevitability.

Honestly, I could really care less for the sake of the people down there, economics aside. If the SE Asia region of the world was almost entirely wiped out, it'd really be a blessing for the remaining world, speaking from a resource distributing standpoint (Yes, I understand the United States is still the largest consumer of resources. However, countries like India and China will soon be catching up, at the current rate that their populations are climbing to.).

What worries me is the panic that will drive a mass exodus from the region, thus further spreading the pandemic. The thought of an outbreak with a high killing capacity as well as a extreme resistance to drug treatments is a very scary thought indeed (Granted, antibiotics wouldn't have done much in regards to the Spanish Flu). If you think the current "refugee" crisis is overwhelming, just imagine what would occur if such hypothetical outbreak occurred.

[phuckphace]

Africa lacks the prerequisite population density and antibiotic resistance, though. the closer people are packed together, the more quickly a disease can spread.

I'm skeptical that the internal and international response would be quick or effective enough once the Big One emerges - even a rail network and the WHO in DEFCON1 won't be of much use if the needed superantibiotic is prohibitively expensive or not yet invented.

[Porpoise101]

Africa lacks the prerequisite population density and antibiotic resistance, though.

That's where you are wrong. Nigeria is like an African India in many ways. And check this out: http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/8508ed53a9197f008c7d365d3916e961.jpg

Notice how Southern Nigeria matches that of India, China, and Europe. The West Coast of Africa also has such a system. Even the Congo poses a threat because of how people interact. In that country, people move from their homes to trade and barter goods by the river systems, some of that meat. Actually, this is how they explained the transmission of HIV from an isolated human population to the world. Anyways temporarily, the population increases in major cities on the rivers which allows pathogens we don't know to reach the world.

[phuckphace]

That's where you are wrong. Nigeria is like an African India in many ways. And check this out: image (http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/8508ed53a9197f008c7d365d3916e961.jpg)

conceded. I suppose it wouldn't be irrational to imagine a double-apocalypse from two continents, either one right after the other or, god forbid, at the same time.

I'm also nervous as to how the West in particular would be affected by a pandemic - I'd say it's dependent on which pathogen(s) they are, if it's a virus or bacterium, its mode of transmission, how it affects the host, etc. in some cases and conditions, a deadlier pathogen has a more limited spread because the infected person dies too suddenly to infect a large number of people. but in the Third World this doesn't apply, because a) the population density is so high and b) corpses are simply tossed into the nearest river a few meters away from the local swimming/bathing hole.

far be it from me to sound like a fascist scaremonger, but this angle can't be ignored when discussing third-world immigration. the US is already dealing with Mexicans and their high rates of tuberculosis (where it was very uncommon before) and although TB is unlikely to become a pandemic, it has become drug-resistant in the last few decades as well. having read about people who died of "consumption" in the old days I can't say it sounds much like my idea of a good time.

immigrants and their slew of gnarly diseases is not a new concern either, we've been aware of this problem ever since Typhoid Mary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoid_Mary) in the early 20th century. even now with our modern medical SCIENCE!, it seems really irresponsible and short-sighted to just shrug off this issue as NBD just go to the doctor fam.

[sqishy]

to quote the late tonymontana99, "when it all comes crashing down, WITH NO SURVIVORS..." (PBUH)

itt we can discuss any kind of large-scale disaster, whether anthropogenic, natural or a combination of both. mind you I'm not referring to a "localized" disaster such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but one where a large chunk of the global populace is not only affected but actually killed off. I think a quarter or 25% is not unreasonable or too tinfoily.

I don't consider myself a Malthusian in the classical sense - one where the population continues to grow indefinitely until every single drop of fuel is burned and every single tree is cut down. I also find it unlikely that a mass extinction of all humans will occur anytime soon barring some sort of Chicxulub-style giant impact scenario.

my prediction: I believe that India will suffer a near-total, catastrophic pandemic of some kind or another within 50 years, one that will probably annihilate the majority of the country and to a lesser extent, adjacent nations. based on my findings from e-researching the country and its conditions, it's apparent that they're setting themselves up for a "perfect storm", based on the following:

-very large population that is densely packed, numbering over 1 billion people
-the population is extensively intermingled with animals, specifically cows
-open defecation and use of the same water for drinking and "washing" - contamination is widespread. even if a given Indian individual follows proper hygiene practices, he or she is still unable to avoid exposure to microbes due to the omnipresence of raw sewage and contact with other individuals who don't.
-a high portion of the populace has access to antibiotics, which are prescribed recklessly and have led to the emergence of drug-resistant pathogens. this is an example of evolution by artificial selection - the drug-resistant strains will (and do) crowd out the weaker strains until only the deadliest remain.

I'm hoping this prediction turns out to be wrong, but there are several reasons why I believe it won't be. given the huge expense of R&D that goes into new drugs, particularly to combat these newly-emerged strains, and the time required (a couple of decades) coupled with the poverty and lack of an infrastructure to facilitate a quick response, it wouldn't surprise me if Black Death 2.0 ends up beating SCIENCE! to the punch. pandemics aren't new, and in my opinion we're overdue for another "Big One" c.f. the Black Death or the Influenza of the early 20th century. there have never been more humans alive at one time than now, and thus a pandemic occurring today would probably result in a proportionate body-count.

feel free to post your agreements, disagreements, and theories of your own. I'd like to keep this as least tinfoil as possible, though.

Overall I agree, in that the global population as a whole is in danger, and lots of stuff could happen.

(Also, I laughed when you referenced our late 'friend' - his presence truly is memorable.)

[Uniquemind]

There's a lot of political incorrect policies that are going to have to be systematically put in-place out of due force given the global traveling economy.

Oh it's "cultural" for you to only bathe once in a while (week), well too bad if you're in America, your teacher, boss, might ask you to change that cultural habit to meet health standards in the developed world.


In other threads I've long advocated that ones beliefs and or at least cultural habits should only swap depending on geographical location.

The Zika virus has been on the news recently, there is no cure, and if pregnant it causes deformities in one's baby specifically in the brain.

No society or individual household or mom, wants a broken baby to have to raise 18+ years and probably beyond that because that individual lacks vital brain structures most people have and need to function independently.

[HououinKiyoma]

phuckphace I pretty much agree to what you have said. India already has 3 different strains of TB Normal, MDR(Moderately drug resistant), XDR(extremely .. ..) with XDR having an almost 90% mortality rate. Most drugs and antibiotics are over the counter, with no regulatory body having a grip on the drug stores. Population is growing like nuts and hygiene is also a huge concern.

Has anyone read Inferno by Dan Brown? It deals with a similar kind of global pandemic.

[phuckphace]

*bump*

thecommonguy - haven't read any of Dan Brown but I have read The Stand by Stephen King. it's obviously a work of fiction (more in the realm of fantasy-fiction, even) and the pathogen depicted is a strain of influenza that's been weaponized in a lab, leading to a final body count of 99.4% of all humans. that scenario, while scary to think about is one I find very unlikely - it does illustrate the speed at which a pandemic can spread, and the reality of a population bottleneck caused by a small number of survivors.

friendly warning for the record: leave India as soon as you're able, and don't look back. you know, like the Targaryens who relocated to Dragonstone right before the Doom :)

also, it's happening! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zika_virus_outbreak_(2015%E2%80%93present)) (well, maybe)

Zika is interesting because it can be transmitted via insects and through sexual contact. yet again we have a pathogen that has infected humans for quite awhile but is only now becoming a large-scale pandemic - the joys of globalism. I'll just be over here soaking myself with DEET and avoiding the fuck out of marshy puddles.

[HououinKiyoma]

*bump*

thecommonguy - haven't read any of Dan Brown but I have read The Stand by Stephen King. it's obviously a work of fiction (more in the realm of fantasy-fiction, even) and the pathogen depicted is a strain of influenza that's been weaponized in a lab, leading to a final body count of 99.4% of all humans. that scenario, while scary to think about is one I find very unlikely - it does illustrate the speed at which a pandemic can spread, and the reality of a population bottleneck caused by a small number of survivors.

friendly warning for the record: leave India as soon as you're able, and don't look back. you know, like the Targaryens who relocated to Dragonstone right before the Doom :)

also, it's happening! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zika_virus_outbreak_(2015%E2%80%93present)) (well, maybe)

Zika is interesting because it can be transmitted via insects and through sexual contact. yet again we have a pathogen that has infected humans for quite awhile but is only now becoming a large-scale pandemic - the joys of globalism. I'll just be over here soaking myself with DEET and avoiding the fuck out of marshy puddles.

Well you should read Inferno. If you dont want to pm me.

Not all mosquito vector diseases are in India. India is free from Yellow Fever and Nile Fever, all from the same mosquito that causes Dengue and Zica, inspite of the fact that the species of mosquito is everywhere in India. So no reason to worry immediately.

Ill pass your offer to leave India for the moment.

[Porpoise101]

Zika is in China. Welp it's been nice knowing you guys.

[HououinKiyoma]

*bump
phuckphace

Zika still not in India.