Whisper
February 4th, 2008, 12:55 PM
It's a number destined to take centre stage in an imminent Alberta election campaign, expected to be one of the province's most interesting and exciting votes in years. Several sources told The Globe and Mail the writ will be dropped this afternoon shortly after the Throne Speech is delivered in the legislature.
For 37 years, the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party has governed the oil-rich province uninterrupted. And the polls are already predicting this election will give the party, led by Ed Stelmach, its 11th majority government.
However, despite a booming economy, the polls also show a large number of undecided voters are unsure about who should lead Canada's economic powerhouse next.
The Tories' political rivals are already planning to exploit voter volatility by pouncing on the government's age. That tactic served the right-wing Conservatives well in 1971 when the party swept another Alberta political dynasty, the Social Credit Party, out of office after 36 years on a platform promising much-needed change.
Since Alberta joined Confederation in 1905, only four parties have formed governments. When political change comes, it's wholesale and the victor a party that had never governed the province before.
Even former Tory premier Ralph Klein recently acknowledged that "there is a danger of a party being in power for too long a period...."
The retired politician expects the Tories will win another majority, but lose seats like it did during his last election in 2004, when thousands of disillusioned party members stayed home.
While the party still won a comfortable majority, Mr. Klein's Tories captured just 47 per cent of the popular vote and lost 12 seats in the 83-seat legislature.
Even a new leader, Mr. Stelmach, 56, a soft-spoken farmer turned politician, has done little to shake the party's growing reputation of being too rural, out-of-touch and bereft of ideas on how to deal with the debt-free province's challenges, such as the economic boom that sparked a massive labour and housing shortage.
Chaldeans Mensah, a political scientist at Grant MacEwan College in Edmonton, said that, despite the party's problems, it will still win a majority because of its rock-solid support in rural Alberta.
He said the Wildrose Alliance Party, a new right-wing party designed to take away PC votes in the country and small towns, won't eat into that bedrock of Tory support. "They are untested and too new."
The fledgling party isn't expected to run candidates in every riding and was rocked on the weekend by the unexpected resignation of its president.
Prof. Mensah said Mr. Stelmach needs to present a solid plan for Alberta's future during the campaign if he wants to stop more urban seats from falling to his rivals, most likely the Alberta Liberals. Calgary, which was traditionally a Tory stronghold, is especially at risk, he added.
Currently, the Tories hold 60 of the 83 seats in the Alberta Legislature.
"The other elections have been centred around Ralph Klein's personality. This time, the lack of charisma and Mr. Stelmach's inability to communicate his ideas clearly means that he will have to focus more on an issue-oriented campaign," Prof. Mensah said.
In recent days, the Tories, which have an election war chest rumoured to be in the millions, have been readying for the polls.
More than $1-billion in promised spending has been announced. Mr. Stelmach even rolled out a 20-year capital plan he touted has a "very strong urban focus." The price tag: roughly $6-billion a year.
A Throne Speech today is expected to offer more goodies to the electorate.
Preston Manning, the former federal Reform Party leader, said the country should be paying close attention to the election. "Alberta has become this big player in the country," he said during an interview. "It has got to conduct its affairs properly."
Last November, Mr. Manning made headlines after he speculated that Alberta could be headed for an election upheaval because of the Tories' handling of key issues, such as the new oil-and-gas royalty regime.
"I think it's hard to tell," he said, when asked by The Globe and Mail about whether this election could indeed sweep in a new government. However, Mr. Manning, whose father, Ernest, was Alberta's longest-serving premier, as part of the Social Credit dynasty, added it's clear "a lot of Albertans are undecided about the future."
He said voters want a lively debate about the province's future, its role on the national stage and issues such as the environment and health care.
With a report from Canadian Press
For 37 years, the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party has governed the oil-rich province uninterrupted. And the polls are already predicting this election will give the party, led by Ed Stelmach, its 11th majority government.
However, despite a booming economy, the polls also show a large number of undecided voters are unsure about who should lead Canada's economic powerhouse next.
The Tories' political rivals are already planning to exploit voter volatility by pouncing on the government's age. That tactic served the right-wing Conservatives well in 1971 when the party swept another Alberta political dynasty, the Social Credit Party, out of office after 36 years on a platform promising much-needed change.
Since Alberta joined Confederation in 1905, only four parties have formed governments. When political change comes, it's wholesale and the victor a party that had never governed the province before.
Even former Tory premier Ralph Klein recently acknowledged that "there is a danger of a party being in power for too long a period...."
The retired politician expects the Tories will win another majority, but lose seats like it did during his last election in 2004, when thousands of disillusioned party members stayed home.
While the party still won a comfortable majority, Mr. Klein's Tories captured just 47 per cent of the popular vote and lost 12 seats in the 83-seat legislature.
Even a new leader, Mr. Stelmach, 56, a soft-spoken farmer turned politician, has done little to shake the party's growing reputation of being too rural, out-of-touch and bereft of ideas on how to deal with the debt-free province's challenges, such as the economic boom that sparked a massive labour and housing shortage.
Chaldeans Mensah, a political scientist at Grant MacEwan College in Edmonton, said that, despite the party's problems, it will still win a majority because of its rock-solid support in rural Alberta.
He said the Wildrose Alliance Party, a new right-wing party designed to take away PC votes in the country and small towns, won't eat into that bedrock of Tory support. "They are untested and too new."
The fledgling party isn't expected to run candidates in every riding and was rocked on the weekend by the unexpected resignation of its president.
Prof. Mensah said Mr. Stelmach needs to present a solid plan for Alberta's future during the campaign if he wants to stop more urban seats from falling to his rivals, most likely the Alberta Liberals. Calgary, which was traditionally a Tory stronghold, is especially at risk, he added.
Currently, the Tories hold 60 of the 83 seats in the Alberta Legislature.
"The other elections have been centred around Ralph Klein's personality. This time, the lack of charisma and Mr. Stelmach's inability to communicate his ideas clearly means that he will have to focus more on an issue-oriented campaign," Prof. Mensah said.
In recent days, the Tories, which have an election war chest rumoured to be in the millions, have been readying for the polls.
More than $1-billion in promised spending has been announced. Mr. Stelmach even rolled out a 20-year capital plan he touted has a "very strong urban focus." The price tag: roughly $6-billion a year.
A Throne Speech today is expected to offer more goodies to the electorate.
Preston Manning, the former federal Reform Party leader, said the country should be paying close attention to the election. "Alberta has become this big player in the country," he said during an interview. "It has got to conduct its affairs properly."
Last November, Mr. Manning made headlines after he speculated that Alberta could be headed for an election upheaval because of the Tories' handling of key issues, such as the new oil-and-gas royalty regime.
"I think it's hard to tell," he said, when asked by The Globe and Mail about whether this election could indeed sweep in a new government. However, Mr. Manning, whose father, Ernest, was Alberta's longest-serving premier, as part of the Social Credit dynasty, added it's clear "a lot of Albertans are undecided about the future."
He said voters want a lively debate about the province's future, its role on the national stage and issues such as the environment and health care.
With a report from Canadian Press