Whisper
November 23rd, 2007, 04:26 PM
MONTREAL -- YouTube videos, Skype calls and file sharing has the Internet bursting at the seams, which might slow the online experience to a crawl starting in two years, a report coming from the United States warns.
Unless US$137-billion is invested worldwide to upgrade networks, demand will outstrip capacity. The result, the report from Nemertes Research says, will be regular brownouts in service.
"It may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase, or it may take longer to download the latest video from YouTube," the report said.
The study was commissioned by the Internet Innovation Alliance, a lobby group for large service providers and equipment makers such as AT&T and Nortel Networks.
The group argues that a stagnant capacity will choke innovation on the Internet, a position others say is hogwash meant to give service providers the freedom to jockey Internet traffic.
It's another volley in Net neutrality, a buzz term that has Internet firms such as Google and telephone companies such as Comcast locked in a rhetorical battle for lawmakers' votes.
On one side, telephone and cable companies say big Internet content makers that boast heavy traffic, such as streaming videos, should pay a premium for hogging bandwidth.
The other side says the Internet should be unfettered and free --- as it was purportedly designed to be.
But rather than saying the Googles and Yahoos should pay for the privilege of being top destinations, the Nemertes study suggests that Internet use be taxed, or that Internet providers be given tax credits to encourage network upgrades.
This alarm has been sounded before. A Deloitte Consulting report from the start of this year said the capacity tipping point might happen in 2007.
Local cable Internet provider Videotron Ltd. doesn't see a capacity crunch happening.
"We are monitoring consumption. We see how it evolves," said Videotron spokesperson Isabelle Dessureault. "A small group of users are consuming a lot of the bandwidth. Not everyone will watch TV 24/7 and download movies nonstop."
But Videotron and other service providers have complained that Internet giants are getting a free ride without pitching in for the network upgrades.
In the words of Ms. Dessureault: "Content providers are shipping pianos instead of postcards, and they're not paying for the shipment."
And local companies have their own ways of ensuring their pipes aren't overloaded. Videotron has made headlines for putting bandwidth caps on its high-calibre users.
Bell Sympatico also has admitted to curbing users who share a lot of files in peer-to-peer networks, a practice known as "P2P throttling."
These methods, the companies say, ensure the majority of customers aren't adversely affected by Internet gluttons.
Amit Kaminer, a telecom analyst at research firm SeaBoard Group, says fears of a capacity crunch are unfounded, since the technology to transmit data is always improving.
Unless US$137-billion is invested worldwide to upgrade networks, demand will outstrip capacity. The result, the report from Nemertes Research says, will be regular brownouts in service.
"It may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase, or it may take longer to download the latest video from YouTube," the report said.
The study was commissioned by the Internet Innovation Alliance, a lobby group for large service providers and equipment makers such as AT&T and Nortel Networks.
The group argues that a stagnant capacity will choke innovation on the Internet, a position others say is hogwash meant to give service providers the freedom to jockey Internet traffic.
It's another volley in Net neutrality, a buzz term that has Internet firms such as Google and telephone companies such as Comcast locked in a rhetorical battle for lawmakers' votes.
On one side, telephone and cable companies say big Internet content makers that boast heavy traffic, such as streaming videos, should pay a premium for hogging bandwidth.
The other side says the Internet should be unfettered and free --- as it was purportedly designed to be.
But rather than saying the Googles and Yahoos should pay for the privilege of being top destinations, the Nemertes study suggests that Internet use be taxed, or that Internet providers be given tax credits to encourage network upgrades.
This alarm has been sounded before. A Deloitte Consulting report from the start of this year said the capacity tipping point might happen in 2007.
Local cable Internet provider Videotron Ltd. doesn't see a capacity crunch happening.
"We are monitoring consumption. We see how it evolves," said Videotron spokesperson Isabelle Dessureault. "A small group of users are consuming a lot of the bandwidth. Not everyone will watch TV 24/7 and download movies nonstop."
But Videotron and other service providers have complained that Internet giants are getting a free ride without pitching in for the network upgrades.
In the words of Ms. Dessureault: "Content providers are shipping pianos instead of postcards, and they're not paying for the shipment."
And local companies have their own ways of ensuring their pipes aren't overloaded. Videotron has made headlines for putting bandwidth caps on its high-calibre users.
Bell Sympatico also has admitted to curbing users who share a lot of files in peer-to-peer networks, a practice known as "P2P throttling."
These methods, the companies say, ensure the majority of customers aren't adversely affected by Internet gluttons.
Amit Kaminer, a telecom analyst at research firm SeaBoard Group, says fears of a capacity crunch are unfounded, since the technology to transmit data is always improving.