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Old October 12th, 2017, 03:11 PM   #1
Living For Love
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Default Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

https://www.good.is/articles/oxford-...climate-change

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After a summer full of historic weather events, including multiple “500-year” hurricanes and devastating wildfires, climate activists finally got some good news on Sept. 18. A paper from Oxford University, published in Nature Geosciences (https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031), suggests that the Earth will be able to meet the Paris Agreement’s aggressive goal of keeping the global temperature change under 2 degrees Celsius. Plus, with sustained, immediate action, we might even be able to meet an incredibly ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius goal.

The paper is a huge update, and it’s not inconceivable that it may affect climate policy in cities and nations across the globe. But if you don’t have time to sift through the whole thing, here are six quick things you need to know about happened.

1. So what exactly changed?
Previous findings suggested that if we wanted to prevent a climate catastrophe by keeping the Earth’s temperature increase to below 1.5 degrees Celsius (more on that below), we could only release about 245 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This might seem like a lot, but given how much we produce every year, estimates have suggested we’ll hit the devastating 2 degrees Celsius mark as early as 2050.

This new analysis, however, suggests that the point of no return might instead actually be closer to 880 billion tonnes — so we’ll have more time to transition away from fossil fuels. About 20 years, according to estimates.

2. What’s the deal with 1.5 degrees Celsius?
In 2015, more than a hundred world leaders met in Paris to figure out what we should do about global climate change. As part of that meeting, the participant nations agreed to a framework of rules to try to limit how much the Earth would warm, aiming to stop it at either 2 degrees Celsius or, if possible, the much more ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

3. Were previous scientists wrong?
The numbers did change, but the facts and methods previously used are still valid. This is just how science works — repeating and re-examining our estimates until the most accurate one possible is found. And it’s important to remember this is one study out of a large multitude. The numbers may be revised again once there is more data.

4. Is climate change still a big deal?
Yes, of course. Temperatures in 2015 were already about 1 degree Celsius above what they were in the middle of the 20th century, and we are continuing to pump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Climate change has been linked to stronger hurricanes, rising sea levels, and the spread of diseases, among other things. So it’s still happening and still a big deal.

5. But this is good news?
Yes! It means we have more time to get our act together and limit warming. The more we can limit the overall warming of the planet, the less extreme the changes we will see.

6. So what now?
“This is good news, but the pressure is not off,” study co-author Joeri Rogelj told phys.org. (If we can indulge in a sports metaphor, a football team whose game suddenly goes into overtime shouldn’t get lazy.) Instead, the authors say this should re-affirm that we have the power to do something and that countries should double down on phasing out coal power and investing in trees and other technology that captures carbon dioxide.

It’s rare to get good news about climate change, but this is one of those times. This new study shows that with powerful, immediate action, we really could make things better.


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Old October 22nd, 2017, 11:50 AM   #2
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

So their initial estimates were off by 600 billion tonnes? No wonder people don't trust climate scientists...

I'm all for reducing the effects of climate change, but that sounds some alarms in my head. It seems like they were doing it to make the problem seem like more of a problem. Especially when the data was that far off.
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Old October 22nd, 2017, 12:56 PM   #3
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

What I'm wondering is what is are they using the Paris Agreement data to come up with this result, back in July I posted this, saying that the Paris Agreement is discounting emissions and temperature rise between 1700 and 1875 and because of that we have less time that we thought, so I would like to know if they considered this part in their calculations.

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So their initial estimates were off by 600 billion tonnes? No wonder people don't trust climate scientists...

I'm all for reducing the effects of climate change, but that sounds some alarms in my head. It seems like they were doing it to make the problem seem like more of a problem. Especially when the data was that far off.
Just looking at the hurricane and wild fire seasons we have right now I think we have every right to be alarmed by this.

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Old October 22nd, 2017, 01:00 PM   #4
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

This is interesting, climate change is real thing but as much as theroys change I can see why people don't believe in it.
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Old October 22nd, 2017, 01:18 PM   #5
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

There’s no reason to not be alarmed by climate change and now such common wildfires and droughts and warm temperatures. And there’s no reason to not believe in global warming as real because as science shows time and time again, it’s real and it’s a huge issue. Even if climate scientists aren’t completely accurate and have made mistakes in their calculations, it’s the same thing with flu vaccines, isnt it?

Mistakes in their calculations doesn’t mean it isn’t real and it doesn’t mean it isn’t a problem.

"The head may err, but never the blood.”
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Old October 22nd, 2017, 10:19 PM   #6
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

We have to support safe environment as specialty people live in very hot country like me wehere sometimes temperature is over 50c in summer we can not support more heat
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Old October 23rd, 2017, 05:23 PM   #7
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

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Originally Posted by mattsmith48 View Post
What I'm wondering is what is are they using the Paris Agreement data to come up with this result, back in July I posted this, saying that the Paris Agreement is discounting emissions and temperature rise between 1700 and 1875 and because of that we have less time that we thought, so I would like to know if they considered this part in their calculations.



Just looking at the hurricane and wild fire seasons we have right now I think we have every right to be alarmed by this.
I absolutely agree. I just think it should be noted that climate scientists probably aren't being particularly transparent or honest about the reliability and chance of error in their findings according to the discrepancy which you have described here.

I think we should be alarmed about climate change. It's one of the greatest threats to the planet that mankind has yet faced. However, if we want people to get on board, we need to call out these scientists when they do things like this.
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Old October 23rd, 2017, 07:27 PM   #8
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

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I absolutely agree. I just think it should be noted that climate scientists probably aren't being particularly transparent or honest about the reliability and chance of error in their findings according to the discrepancy which you have described here.

I think we should be alarmed about climate change. It's one of the greatest threats to the planet that mankind has yet faced. However, if we want people to get on board, we need to call out these scientists when they do things like this.
Like what?

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Old October 23rd, 2017, 07:43 PM   #9
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

You can be a believer of climate change, yet still call out the doomsday predictor climate scientists. You can see plenty of examples of climate scientists hiding or manipulating data to push a more catastrophic of climate change and its impact. That's half the reason why government agencies got in a fuss when Congress pushed a bill forcing them to be transparent with their climate research. They were manipulating data. Science, as much as some lefties like to deny, has become political, and thus we must be more vigilant regarding it.

Don't consider this an attack on the idea of climate change, because it isn't. But if you want people to actually trust in climate science, then you must start to call out the frauds. You ruin your own position of being "pro-science" when your refuse to condemn those who bastardize science for political ends.
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Old October 23rd, 2017, 08:08 PM   #10
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

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You can be a believer of climate change, yet still call out the doomsday predictor climate scientists. You can see plenty of examples of climate scientists hiding or manipulating data to push a more catastrophic of climate change and its impact. That's half the reason why government agencies got in a fuss when Congress pushed a bill forcing them to be transparent with their climate research. They were manipulating data. Science, as much as some lefties like to deny, has become political, and thus we must be more vigilant regarding it.
They are human too, its not because they are the most intelligent they aren't allowed to make mistakes. You being anti-science is not an excuse to go on a rant everytime a scientist makes a mistake and accuse them of being political.

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Don't consider this an attack on the idea of climate change, because it isn't. But if you want people to actually trust in climate science, then you must start to call out the frauds. You ruin your own position of being "pro-science" when your refuse to condemn those who bastardize science for political ends.
Fine, I condemn the violence on both sides... Wait, nevermind that's a different thing.

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There is no such thing as liberal or conservative media, the only thing the media cares about is either money or the truth.
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Old November 4th, 2017, 03:52 PM   #11
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

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Like what?
Like grossly overestimating the imminence of the issue without noting that they could be grossly overestimating it and, instead, utilizing such an overestimation to fit their narrative.
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Old November 5th, 2017, 07:50 PM   #12
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

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Like grossly overestimating the imminence of the issue without noting that they could be grossly overestimating it and, instead, utilizing such an overestimation to fit their narrative.
If they do it on purpose we should call them out on it, but we also have to accept that scientists are human and they will make mistake and not call out everyone, every time they make mistakes.

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Old November 6th, 2017, 06:50 PM   #13
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Default Re: Paper Says We Have More Time To Prevent Climate Apocalypse Than We Thought

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If they do it on purpose we should call them out on it, but we also have to accept that scientists are human and they will make mistake and not call out everyone, every time they make mistakes.
Certainly, but surely they would have known if their data had the potential to be this far off. They should've realized that they didn't have enough data.
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