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Living For Love
September 25th, 2017, 11:02 AM
http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/09/19/25422221/why-connecting-climate-change-with-powerful-hurricanes-is-doing-more-damage-than-good


The cycle of climate news and extreme weather events has been so fast recently; it has been almost impossible to understand the scale of all the events simultaneously. Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, the fires in the Pacific Northwest—and this is just North America and the Caribbean. So many people and so much chaos; our collective safety, health, and stability are so obviously connected to extreme weather events and climate change. However, even with on-the-ground climate impacts and our infrastructural vulnerability so clear, it is hard to hold the scale of the problem in your mind.

Lots and lots (so many) of think pieces about hurricane attribution have been broadcast in media spaces in the last two week. Jesus, we are swimming in coverage about hurricanes and their links to climate change. I think this coverage largely does a disservice to public Earth science education, because it presents the content within a vacuum. Can we all just take a step back and think about the other components of the Earth system that are connected to climate change too, lest we misunderstand the relative context for this perceived controversy? The severity and size of tropical storms are connected to climate change. And so are:

- the circulation of the global ocean,
- the distribution and seasonality of sea ice,
- the carbon chemistry of the global ocean,
- the oxygenation of the deep sea,
- the distribution of oceanic nutrients,
- the heat storage within the deep sea,
- the rise of global sea level,
- the inundation of saltwater into shallow coastal environments,
- the reduction and collapse of polar and subpolar ecosystems,
- the loss of continental ice on mountain glaciers,
- the destabilization of boreal forest permafrost,
- the expansion of arid mid-latitude environments,
- the disruption to patterns of terrestrial ecosystem seasonality,
- the intensification of continental heat waves.
- [Russian hackers]

An on, and on, and on.

What’s more, so much of the coverage revolved around the two-dimensional regurgitation of “did climate change cause this hurricane?” To this question, I say "No thank you." As Chris Mooney articulated in his piece in Vox, the question is fundamentally malformed. Climate change is a state-shift in Earth systems, and so when evaluating extreme weather events, it is the context but not necessarily the causal agent. And—news flash—a background context of rapid planetary warming is, in the words of former Vice President Joe Biden, a big fucking deal.

We need to poke a hole in this toxic narrative and news cycle around climate attribution. When I say attribution, what I am referring to are the ongoing arguments of attributing specific weather events to climate change: Was Hurricane Harvey caused by climate change? Was the low snow year of 2015, up and down the Cascadian mountains, caused by climate change? These questions—individually—are interesting and important to answer. But the science of Earth system change is not altered by the relative statistical significance of our attribution certainty. Far from it. What’s more, this framing of attribution uncertainty is continually used to support climate action obstruction and denialist voices in our culture. When you hear pandering equivocation about climate and weather events, alarm bells should start ringing in your head. This news cycle is absolutely toxic and we together need to get our broad cultural conversation off this hamster wheel.

One closing point: When we use uncertainty around attributing individual weather events to climate change to call for "more data" or “better climate science" (think of Cliff Mass) we are driving a wedge between public health and public safety. We mislead the public because the message we send is: We don’t know what’s happening. This simply isn’t true; we do know what is happening. However, in some cases, we lack high-quality time series data to statistically detect the signal of climate from the noise of weather.

Uniquemind
September 25th, 2017, 11:47 AM
Hmm this gives some food for thought, however we need to remember to know the differences in ethos when a earth scientists speaks, and when other scientists like climatologists speak as well. They are not of the same credibility and we need to look at the money flow both from paychecks and job offers by which corporations to which people who happen to be anti-global warming people or at least adding to the equivocation and blurring of the casual effects.

It's hard to link causality especially on a planetary scale, but difficulty is how the law and human need for hard evidence plays right into big oil's hands.

The question to ask is if the context was created by direct influence by man's adding of greenhouse gasses of all sorts not just Carbon Dioxide, and also what are countries whose domain contains the amazon Forrest doing to the lungs of the planet?

mattsmith48
September 25th, 2017, 12:23 PM
They are right about one thing, you can't say for sure if a particular event is linked to climate change, you can only say a trend is linked to climate change like constantly breaking the global temperature record year after year or the increase in strength, intensity and frequency of hurricanes, droughts or wild fires.

PlasmaHam
September 25th, 2017, 02:36 PM
I have always been intrigued by those who go around calling every bad weather event a result of climate change, yet then harp about how "weather does not indicate climate' when someone brings up some massive snowfall or cold front. Not only is that hypocritical, but removes anyany credibility they may have. Classic "crying wolf" scenatio.
Uniquemind, you can't judge the authenticity of scientific behavior by where their money comes from. But if you want to say that, then it is also fair to say that climate scientists could also make unsupported claims about climate change to get that sweet government grant money.

Uniquemind
September 25th, 2017, 07:47 PM
I have always been intrigued by those who go around calling every bad weather event a result of climate change, yet then harp about how "weather does not indicate climate' when someone brings up some massive snowfall or cold front. Not only is that hypocritical, but removes anyany credibility they may have. Classic "crying wolf" scenatio.
Uniquemind, you can't judge the authenticity of scientific behavior by where their money comes from. But if you want to say that, then it is also fair to say that climate scientists could also make unsupported claims about climate change to get that sweet government grant money.

I link to the thunderfoot video I linked in another thread who himself knows how to read scientific papers and graphs regarding global warming as a topic of debate.

I noticed few responded to that thread after I dropped and standby his arguments and points of view.

mattsmith48
September 25th, 2017, 09:27 PM
I have always been intrigued by those who go around calling every bad weather event a result of climate change, yet then harp about how "weather does not indicate climate' when someone brings up some massive snowfall or cold front. Not only is that hypocritical, but removes anyany credibility they may have. Classic "crying wolf" scenatio.
Uniquemind, you can't judge the authenticity of scientific behavior by where their money comes from. But if you want to say that, then it is also fair to say that climate scientists could also make unsupported claims about climate change to get that sweet government grant money.

We can't say for sure one particular natural disaster or weather event happened because of climate change, we already got through this.

maddogmj77
September 25th, 2017, 11:09 PM
I have always been intrigued by those who go around calling every bad weather event a result of climate change, yet then harp about how "weather does not indicate climate' when someone brings up some massive snowfall or cold front. Not only is that hypocritical, but removes any credibility they may have. Classic "crying wolf" scenario.
Anybody who claims that one specific weather event is indicative of climate change is frankly wrong. If you read on, I explain why climate change is related to stronger hurricanes.

Uniquemind, you can't judge the authenticity of scientific behavior by where their money comes from. But if you want to say that, then it is also fair to say that climate scientists could also make unsupported claims about climate change to get that sweet government grant money.
Climate Change Scientists will continue to research climate change whether it is man-made or not, they'll still get government grants, they'll still have jobs.

Coal & Oil companies on the other hand, would be devastated if we started heavily regulating their emissions, pollution, and CO2 output.

That's why they spend tens of millions of dollars every year lobbying congress members, to make sure that never happens.

https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=d000000129
Exxonmobil has spent $249,332,742 in the past twenty years lobbying our politicians. They've also made $19,480,653 in political contributions.

https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=D000022123
Murray Enegry has spent $4,139,000 in the past fifteen years lobbying our politicians. They've also made $7,097,220 in political contributions.

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As for the connection between hurricanes & Climate Change. For every 1C° warmer the air gets, it can hold 7% percent more water. That is why climate change is making hurricanes stronger.
It is a proven scientific fact for every 1C° warmer the air gets, it can hold 7% percent more water.
It is a proven scientific fact that the planet is getting warmer.
It is a proven scientific fact that humans play some role in climate change.

Therefore, we can conclude, that climate change is making hurricanes stronger, and humans are partly to blame.

mattsmith48
September 26th, 2017, 12:41 AM
As for the connection between hurricanes & Climate Change. For every 1C° warmer the air gets, it can hold 7% percent more water. That is why climate change is making hurricanes stronger.
It is a proven scientific fact for every 1C° warmer the air gets, it can hold 7% percent more water.
It is a proven scientific fact that the planet is getting warmer.
It is a proven scientific fact that humans play some role in climate change.

Therefore, we can conclude, that climate change is making hurricanes stronger, and humans are partly to blame.

It's also why droughts are lasting longer