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View Full Version : Dec 4th, Day of Reckoning for Europe


Porpoise101
November 28th, 2016, 07:11 PM
This December will be an interesting one for Europe, but the events which will unfold are going relatively unnoticed in some regard. The outcomes have become more volatile, no thanks to the events in the US and the UK this year.


Italian Constitutional Referendum
Here is a quick overview (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/23/italy-referendum-the-next-vote-that-could-shake-europe-is-next-week.html). I am not completely knowledgeable, but essentially this would centralize the Italian Republic somewhat. Italy suffers from crippling inefficiency resulting from corruption and drawn out processes. Centralization is one way to address this issue, however it is an unpopular one. Along with the fact that secessionist/populist movements have been brewing in the North for a while (especially in Venice), the Italian PM Renzi could be in for a shock. It will be on Dec 4th.
http://images.vector-images.com/110/g547_italia.gif
Austrian Presidential Referendum
The Austrians are going to vote for their President, and it's between a pro-EU Green Party candidate (Van der Bellen) and a candidate (Hoffer) of a Euroskeptic, far-right Pan-Germanist party called the FPO or Austrian Freedom Party (fun fact: the FPO was founded by a former SS officer). The Austrians have taken in many refugees, especially those which hail from the Balkans. What's special about this election is that the Austrians already voted for the Greens, but the election was struck down by the courts. During that time, many paradigms have shifted and the outcome has become much more uncertain in the Alpine Republic. Here is an outline (http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/28/all-you-need-to-know-about-austria-s-presidential-election). It will occur on Dec 4th as well.
http://www.williammarshalstore.com/2850-thickbox_default/austria-coat-of-arms-shirt.jpg

StoppingTom
November 28th, 2016, 07:20 PM
How does an election get struck down by courts (assuming it was a legitimate and democratic election)?

Vlerchan
November 28th, 2016, 07:30 PM
How does an election get struck down by courts (assuming it was a legitimate and democratic election)?
By not being a legitimate election. There were a number of voting irregularities and the FPO petitioned successfully to have the last result annulled.

---

I'm hopeful that the Italian referendum passes and Van der Bellen attains the presidency.

Though I'm not optimistic of the former occuring and after Brexit and Trump I am reluctant to get my hopes up about the Austrian result.

Porpoise101
November 28th, 2016, 08:14 PM
I'm hopeful that the Italian referendum passes and Van der Bellen attains the presidency.

Though I'm not optimistic of the former occuring and after Brexit and Trump I am reluctant to get my hopes up about the Austrian result.
I am more optimistic about the Austrian result simply because the amount of Syrian refugees has been decreasing (from the Turkish deal), and as such, it is not in the news as much (at least in the US). If the same is true in Austria, and the whole refugee thing is being put in the backburner in the Austrian media, then I believe that the election could yield favorable results for the Greens. Additionally, they already had a Green win, which makes me a little optimistic even if it was illegitimate.

As for Italy, I feel it is destined to become a big mess. Even if it does pass, the PM's party will have a lot of damage control to do in terms of recovering lost seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

Of course, after this we have the whole French situation to look forward to next year.

ThisBougieLife
November 29th, 2016, 12:02 AM
That Austrian coat of arms is amazing. The Österreichischen Adler it's called. :D

On topic: Yes, it seems that a lot of European nations have important decisions to make in the near future. Especially in the case of places like Austria and France, there is a clear choice for xenophobia and against globalism. I hope you're right that with the refugee hysteria dying down in some places, these far-right politicians will not win, but I wouldn't be surprised. Trends in the West right now are favorable to them.

Arkansasguy
November 29th, 2016, 08:39 AM
This December will be an interesting one for Europe, but the events which will unfold are going relatively unnoticed in some regard. The outcomes have become more volatile, no thanks to the events in the US and the UK this year.


Italian Constitutional Referendum
Here is a quick overview (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/23/italy-referendum-the-next-vote-that-could-shake-europe-is-next-week.html). I am not completely knowledgeable, but essentially this would centralize the Italian Republic somewhat. Italy suffers from crippling inefficiency resulting from corruption and drawn out processes. Centralization is one way to address this issue, however it is an unpopular one. Along with the fact that secessionist/populist movements have been brewing in the North for a while (especially in Venice), the Italian PM Renzi could be in for a shock. It will be on Dec 4th.
image (http://images.vector-images.com/110/g547_italia.gif)
Austrian Presidential Referendum
The Austrians are going to vote for their President, and it's between a pro-EU Green Party candidate (Van der Bellen) and a candidate (Hoffer) of a Euroskeptic, far-right Pan-Germanist party called the FPO or Austrian Freedom Party (fun fact: the FPO was founded by a former SS officer). The Austrians have taken in many refugees, especially those which hail from the Balkans. What's special about this election is that the Austrians already voted for the Greens, but the election was struck down by the courts. During that time, many paradigms have shifted and the outcome has become much more uncertain in the Alpine Republic. Here is an outline (http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/28/all-you-need-to-know-about-austria-s-presidential-election). It will occur on Dec 4th as well.
image (http://www.williammarshalstore.com/2850-thickbox_default/austria-coat-of-arms-shirt.jpg)


And next year, France gets to be made great again as well.

Microcosm
November 30th, 2016, 06:11 PM
On a side note, Trump wants to significantly decrease U.S. involvement in NATO, which could destabilize the organization and therefore world peace.

World War 3 2017 fought in the Middle East, South China Sea, and like maybe Eastern Ukraine idk.

Paraxiom
December 1st, 2016, 05:10 PM
More interesting events to come, hopefully.

Porpoise101
December 1st, 2016, 08:09 PM
Apparently the leader of the 5 Star Movement (anti-Renzi political group) has been outed as disseminating fake news and pro-Russian propaganda. One overlooked thing about all of these recent elections is that they were decidedly in the Russian interest. Russian meddling found its way into the US election at the very least, and this is actually worrying the Germans for their elections which are coming up.

Vlerchan
December 2nd, 2016, 03:25 PM
More interesting events to come, hopefully.
I hope not. This might seem 'interesting' from someone shielded from the consequences but for a substantial amount of people it's going to deliver real pain.

One overlooked thing about all of these recent elections is that they were decidedly in the Russian interest.
I've noticed.

There have also been a number of investigative articles that have linked the Russian government to European populist groups.

Porpoise101
December 2nd, 2016, 09:21 PM
I suppose it should be asked: What can Western (or any gov't) do to protect themselves from foreign propaganda in this era of Internet?

The Chinese are set, with their censorship, but the West can't do that. Perhaps this sort of meddling should result in higher penalties.

ThisBougieLife
December 4th, 2016, 02:40 PM
"Day of Reckoning" underway, with good news from Austria: http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/04/europe/austria-presidential-election-rerun/index.html

Porpoise101
December 4th, 2016, 08:46 PM
Nice news above, for sure.

Apparently odds for Italy are 75% in favor of a 'No' victory in the referendum (not a 75% share of votes, I'm talking about chance to win).

Well, the results are in, and here is a nice map to show the results of the Italian referendum.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d0/2016_Italian_constitutional_referendum_results_%28regions%29.png/800px-2016_Italian_constitutional_referendum_results_%28regions%29.png
As you can see it was a fairly resounding "no" with only the regions of Trent and Renzi's home region of Tuscany supporting the changes. About 60% of voters said 'no'.

Renzi is now stepping down. His political opponents have won. I am no fan of Italy's current government. But I dislike the 5 Star Movement not even because of its poor values, but because it is unifying the country. I wish that the Italian state either dissolved from secessionist movements, or had a liberal democratic government. Now we will have neither, because the seccessionist vote has been channeled by these 5 Star people. Source (http://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-no-poses-trouble-for-eurozone-1480897269)
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Unrelated, but apparently the PM of New Zealand is stepping down to be with his family.

Posts merged. ~Amethyst_

StoppingTom
December 4th, 2016, 11:32 PM
For someone unfamiliar, what is the 5 Star Movement and what are the implications of the Italian Referendum?

Porpoise101
December 5th, 2016, 05:35 PM
The Five Star Movement is a Euroskeptic, populist party in Italy. It is pretty interesting, but what they have done is destabilize a nation which is currently in bad shape (25% of nation under poverty line according to CIA). Italy has a host of economic issues, and the fact that this movement is gaining popularity will bring disunity to nation which does not need it. It may also harm the EU, as Italy is the no. 3 country in the Eurozone.

Paraxiom
December 8th, 2016, 04:40 PM
I hope not. This might seem 'interesting' from someone shielded from the consequences but for a substantial amount of people it's going to deliver real pain.

I've been taking a leaning to dark humour that sees longer-term beneficial effects coming out of (hopefully, not guaranteed at all though) general realisation in the populace of what happens when you let certain thises and thats happen (Brexit (in the way it's being implemented), Drumpf, etc).

I am more shielded than many when it comes to critical socio-political events in some ways, but I totally recognise the degree of suffering that could, would, will and does happen.

I guess I did a bit of a phuckphace when it came to some of my views, by suspending direct reference/mention to them through taking an apparently different spin on things. Apologies for that. :D

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Anyway, there go the chances of that election being passed.